Turkish Dried Apricots Ease From Highs as New Crop Flows Stabilise

Turkish dried apricot prices are softening slightly from recent peaks as new-crop supply from Malatya flows more steadily into export channels, while overall levels remain historically elevated after last season’s shortfall. After months of tightness, the dried apricot market is transitioning into a more balanced phase. Turkish export data show robust dried fruit exports led by raisins, figs and apricots, signalling that supply chains are functioning normally again and buyers are actively covering forward needs. In Malatya, clear, seasonally mild weather in early October supports ongoing drying, curing and packing operations without major disruption risks in the very short term. Against this backdrop, FCA Europe quotations for Turkish origin dried apricots have edged lower across most sizes, suggesting reduced panic buying and a more orderly handover from old- to new-crop stocks.

Prices

Spot FCA Dordrecht quotations for Turkish origin dried apricots show a narrow but broad-based week-on-week decline across mainstream sulphured sizes, while cubes also eased slightly. FOB Malatya and Ankara offers for unsulphured and organic material are largely unchanged versus late September, pointing to relative stability at origin.

The modest softening in European FCA prices versus early October suggests improved availability of standard grades and some easing in spot demand after aggressive cover during the previous crop crisis. However, the absolute price level remains high in a longer-term context following the severe 2025/26 Turkish crop losses that tightened global dried apricot supply.

Supply & Demand

Turkey continues to dominate global dried apricot supply, with Malatya alone accounting for the lion’s share of national production. This structural concentration means that the recovery of the Malatya crop in 2026 is the key driver behind the recent easing in prices rather than any major demand shock.

Recent Turkish trade data show dried fruit exports, including apricots, performing strongly in January–September 2026, with total dried fruit and products exports reaching about $1.13 billion and dried apricots contributing nearly $200 million. This underlines solid international demand, especially from Europe, the UK and the US, while also confirming that exporters have sufficient product to ship after last season’s extreme tightness.

Earlier season assessments pointed to a still-limited but significantly better 2026 Malatya apricot crop compared with the frost-ravaged 2025 harvest, with output estimates in the 75,000–80,000 MT range and some quality downgrades after adverse spring weather. Even if these figures are below pre-crisis norms, they are enough to stabilise export programmes and rebuild a portion of pipeline stocks, reducing the urgency that supported the highest price spikes.

Weather & Crop Conditions (TR)

Short-term weather in Malatya is seasonally favourable for dried apricot operations. Regional forecasts for 10–12 October indicate mainly clear or sunny conditions with daytime highs around the low‑ to mid‑20s °C and cool nights, with only a low risk of light showers after the weekend.

At this stage of the season, the main implications are logistical rather than agronomic: stable weather supports unhindered drying, warehouse handling and transport, limiting the risk of quality slippage or shipment delays. No immediate weather-related threat is visible for the next few days, so short-term price movements are more likely to come from demand and currency factors than from new crop news.

Market Fundamentals

The current pricing pattern – marginal week-on-week declines in FCA Europe, flat FOB origin levels – is consistent with a market exiting crisis mode while still digesting high replacement costs and tight carry-over inventories. Earlier analyses highlighted that last year’s severe frost and drought in Turkey wiped out a large portion of the crop, slashing global supply and propelling prices sharply higher.

Now, increased 2026 production allows exporters to rebuild export volumes, but buyers remain cautious after past volatility. Strong Turkish dried fruit export performance overall suggests healthy downstream demand in key consuming regions, with competition from other dried fruits (raisins, figs, dates) and evolving retail price points likely to cap how far apricot prices can rebound from current levels.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day View

Trading Recommendations (short term)

• Buyers: Use the current mild softening in FCA Dordrecht prices across sizes 3–6 to extend coverage modestly into Q4, but avoid over‑committing given still‑elevated absolute levels and lingering macro demand uncertainty.
• Origin sellers: With FOB Malatya prices stable, maintain offer discipline and focus on shipment performance; consider small, targeted discounts on slower‑moving sizes if European stocks build further.
• Industrial users: Evaluate partial substitution with cubes where technically feasible, as the price differential versus whole fruit remains sizeable and cubes have softened as well.

3‑Day Regional Price Direction (TR‑linked market)

• Malatya / Ankara FOB (TR): Stable for both sulphured and unsulphured grades over the next three days; no weather or supply shock expected.
• Dordrecht FCA (NL, Turkish origin): Slightly softer to sideways bias as new‑crop flows into Europe and spot demand normalises after earlier hedging.
• Other EU FCA hubs (TR origin): Largely tracking Dordrecht levels with limited room for further immediate downside unless new macro or currency drivers emerge.