Turkish Dried Apricots Edge Higher as Hot Malatya Weather Meets Firm EU Demand

Turkish dried apricot prices are holding a broadly firm to slightly higher tone, with modest gains in EU warehouse values and steady FOB offers out of Malatya. Hot, dry weather across the core growing region is accelerating drying but not yet triggering crop-loss headlines, while a strong 2026 crop expectation keeps sellers disciplined rather than aggressive. In the very short term, prices look supported by tight old-crop stocks and active European demand, with limited downside risk. European FCA levels for Turkish dried apricots have nudged up by around 1–3% since late June across most sizes, while Turkish FOB offers from Malatya remain flat but firm, helped by tight old-crop availability and the transition into the 2026 harvest. Industry commentary points to a large 2026 Malatya crop and a calm but supported pricing environment as drying progresses under hot conditions. At the same time, Turkish dried-fruit exports overall remain robust, reinforcing Turkey’s role as the key global supplier. Weather in Malatya over the coming days is forecast to stay hot and mostly dry, favouring drying operations and supporting a steady-to-firm short‑term price outlook.

Prices

Reported prices are converted to EUR using ~1.0 USD/EUR and ~36 TRY/EUR where relevant; figures are indicative.

Recent market commentary notes that Turkish dried apricot prices in Europe have edged higher as the 2026 Malatya harvest advances under hot, dry weather, with old-crop stocks described as tight and keeping the market firm. A separate industry report highlights that a strong 2026 Malatya crop and stable export offers are setting a calm but firm tone, with no immediate sign of price pressure from oversupply.

Supply & Demand

Malatya remains the dominant origin for dried apricots globally, supplying well over half of world dried apricot output in a typical year. For 2026, sector analysis points to a large Turkish crop, with international estimates suggesting that global dried apricot production in 2026/27 could be more than 50% higher than the previous season, largely on the back of Turkey’s recovery, assuming no late weather shocks.

Recent trade coverage indicates that the 2026 harvest and drying in Turkey are progressing on schedule, and that Malatya processors and exporters are well positioned to supply Europe, the main destination for Turkish dried apricots. Turkish dried-fruit exports overall remain strong: in the first half of 2026, Turkey’s dried fruit exports reached about USD 752 million, with Aegean exporters accounting for 62% of that total, underlining healthy external demand for Turkish product.

On the demand side, European buyers appear to be steadily covering forward needs but without panic buying, as they anticipate good availability from the 2026 crop. However, tight carry-in stocks from the previous season limit spot availability in Europe, particularly for some sizes and higher-quality unsulphured product, supporting current FCA levels.

Weather & Short-Term Risks (Malatya, TR)

Short-range forecasts for Malatya over the next several days show hot summer conditions, with daytime highs generally in the low to mid-30s °C, low humidity and very limited rainfall. This pattern is favourable for drying operations, helping processors move quickly from fresh fruit to dried product and supporting on-time start of the new export season.

At the same time, extreme or prolonged heat can tighten water availability and stress trees, but current outlooks do not flag immediate, widespread crop damage. Recent local news also reported moderate earthquakes in the Malatya region in mid-July, but these have not been associated with material disruption to agricultural production or logistics so far. Overall, near-term weather is mildly price-supportive through faster drying, rather than through yield loss.

Fundamentals & External Factors

Fundamentally, the dried apricot market is balancing a strong 2026 crop outlook with tight old-crop stocks. International industry sources note that, barring new weather events, Turkey’s 2026/27 dried apricot production should significantly exceed the prior year, improving medium-term availability. However, exporters are not yet showing aggressive discounting, preferring to gauge quality and sizing from early drying runs.

Macro conditions in Türkiye—especially exchange rate dynamics and inflation—continue to influence export pricing behaviour, but recent academic work suggests that high inflation and currency depreciation can be a double-edged sword, sometimes supporting export competitiveness while adding cost volatility for producers. Meanwhile, Russia’s newly announced restrictions on stone-fruit imports from Türkiye, officially linked to phytosanitary concerns, primarily affect fresh exports; dried apricots have not been singled out, but the episode underscores regulatory risk in some markets.

In this context, Europe remains the anchor demand centre for Turkish dried apricots, with strong brand recognition and established trade flows via Aegean export channels. Given solid demand and limited carryover, the market is currently more concerned about logistical efficiency and quality consistency than about oversupply-driven price declines.

Trading Outlook

• Short term (next 1–3 weeks): Expect a steady to slightly firmer price trend for standard Turkish dried apricot sizes in Europe, as hot Malatya weather speeds drying while old-crop stocks remain tight. Downside appears limited unless buyers step back sharply.
• For buyers: Consider covering nearby Q3 needs now, especially for specific sizes or unsulphured and organic lines, while leaving some flexibility for Q4 in case larger new-crop volumes later cap prices.
• For sellers: Current levels look defendable; cautious forward sales make sense, but locking in too much volume before full 2026 quality and yields are confirmed could cap upside if demand proves stronger.
• Risk factors: Any late-summer heat spikes leading to quality downgrades, new trade restrictions in key destinations, or sharper moves in the TRY/EUR rate could quickly alter pricing power.

3‑Day Price Direction Snapshot (Indicative)

• TR, Malatya FOB (standard sulphured/unsulphured sizes): Stable to slightly firm in EUR over the next 3 days, supported by hot, dry weather and tight old-crop availability.
• EU (NL, PL FCA warehouses): Slight upward bias for common export sizes (no. 5–8) as buyers continue to restock and factor in firm replacement costs from Turkey.
• Processing grades (cubes, smaller sizes): Stable to marginally higher, tracking whole-fruit price direction with limited discount widening expected in the very short term.