Turkish Dried Apricots Hold Firm as New-Crop Malatya Supply Builds

Turkish dried apricot prices are holding broadly steady into the new crop, with only marginal week‑on‑week moves despite larger physical availability from Malatya. Tight carry‑in and cautious farmer selling are offsetting improved 2026 supply, keeping FOB offers for key sizes in a narrow range. New‑crop harvest and drying are now well advanced around Malatya, and first significant volumes are entering licensed warehouses and exporter stocks. Export demand is normal for this time of year, supported by ongoing fresh and dried shipments, while buyers remain price‑sensitive after two seasons of high levels. Near‑term, fundamentals point to a sideways market: no clear weather threat, but also no surplus large enough to trigger aggressive discounting. Currency moves and competition from other dried fruits will be important for direction into early September.

Prices

FOB Malatya offers for conventional sulphured dried apricots (mid sizes) are roughly in the EUR 7.0–7.6/kg range, with unsulphured types carrying a premium up to around EUR 8.1–8.2/kg, based on late‑August quotes converted from USD and TRY levels reported in recent trade discussions and regional price indications. Organic and higher grades typically trade around 10–15% above equivalent conventional sizes.

Export‑side FCA warehouse prices in North‑West Europe for Turkish origin stock show a modest uptick of about EUR 0.05–0.10/kg over the last week across most sizes, consistent with steady replacement costs and limited discounting by importers. This aligns with comments from Malatya‑based suppliers that the new season is opening on a “calm but firm” price tone, with little room for downside while exporters test demand.

Supply & Demand

The 2026 Malatya dried apricot crop is widely described as strong in volume, with current industry estimates centred around 75,000–80,000 tonnes of dried equivalent, well above last year’s frost‑hit outcome. At the same time, Turkey entered the new marketing year with negligible carryover after the 2025 crop failure and heavy drawdown of 2024 stocks, leaving the market dependent on new harvest inflows.

Export data for January–June 2026 show around 12,800 tonnes of dried apricot shipped, worth just over USD 115 million, indicating that despite earlier frost damage the export pipeline remained active thanks to remaining old‑crop stocks and strong EU demand. Fresh apricot exports and domestic consumption have also been robust, with Malatya’s target of 10,000 tonnes fresh exports extending the season through to the end of August, reinforcing the region’s position as a key global supplier.

Weather & Quality Outlook (TR)

The short‑term weather outlook for Malatya over 28–30 August points to warm conditions with highs around 26–32°C and scattered afternoon thunderstorms. For drying apricots already on racks or roofs, intermittent showers pose a minor risk of localized quality defects but are not currently severe enough to disrupt the overall flow of product into storage.

Earlier seasonal commentary highlighted some hail, rainfall during flowering and residual tree damage from previous frosts, raising concerns over fruit set and quality mix. However, most recent trade reports emphasise that weather‑related downgrades are limited and that the 2026 harvest still offers a comfortable supply base, with only modest quality losses versus a normal year. Buyers should nevertheless expect a slightly wider spread between premium and standard grades, as exporters differentiate cleaner, well‑dried lots.

Fundamentals & Drivers

• Tight carry‑in vs larger crop: The near‑zero carryover from the 2025 disaster season keeps the balance sheet from feeling oversupplied even with a 75–80k tonne 2026 crop, supporting a floor under prices.
• Licensed storage and timing: Malatya authorities and the trade bourse are actively encouraging use of licensed warehouses, allowing farmers to stagger sales and avoid harvest‑time gluts, which stabilises spot prices.
• Global demand context: After two years of high dried fruit prices and constrained availability, importers remain cautious but are steadily rebuilding coverage; there is no sign yet of significant demand destruction in core EU and Middle Eastern markets.
• Currency factor: A structurally weak Turkish lira versus the euro continues to improve TRY returns for exporters at current EUR price levels, reducing pressure to push USD/EUR offers significantly higher in the very near term.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price View

• Exporters in Turkey (TR): With Malatya weather broadly favourable and warehouses filling, maintaining current EUR‑denominated offer levels for main sizes looks sensible. Consider modest discounts only for mixed‑quality or smaller sizes if demand softens into early September.
• Importers in EU: The combination of strong crop and tight carry‑in argues for gradual, staggered coverage rather than waiting for a big harvest dip that may not materialize. Prioritise securing desired grades (clean unsulphured and top‑colour sulphured) where quality‑related premiums could widen.
• Industrial users: For diced and industrial sizes, current FCA Europe levels appear fair relative to raw‑material costs; locking in near‑term needs now reduces exposure to potential firmness if demand for bakery and snack applications improves later in Q4.

Over the next three days, Malatya FOB dried apricot prices are expected to remain broadly stable in euro terms, with only minor intra‑day adjustments as new offers are tested. EU FCA prices for Turkish origin are likewise seen steady to fractionally firmer, reflecting unchanged replacement costs and seasonally normal demand.