High-Priced Start to Turkish Dried Apricot Season Faces Demand Test

Export prices for Turkish dried apricots are starting the new season at historically high levels and remain volatile, with buyer resistance likely to cap further gains. Adequate crop volume in Malatya and intense competition from rival origins point to downside risk later in the season if exports fail to match expectations. The new dried apricot season in Turkey has opened on a subdued mood despite a solid crop. Partial frost events during fruit development did not significantly affect total supply, and Malatya alone is expected to produce around 67,418 tons of dried apricots. Yet raw material prices remain elevated and export offers are unstable, fluctuating within a narrow but high range. Trade sentiment is cautious: exporters need strong early-season shipments to defend current price levels, but also face the challenge of regaining buyers lost last season due to high prices.

Prices

Raw material prices in Malatya are reported between 340–450 TRY per kg depending on quality, translating into firm export offers. Current export prices are quoted at about 8.50–9.50 USD/kg FOB for standard grades, equivalent to roughly 7.8–8.7 EUR/kg at prevailing FX, which is considered expensive by many buyers. Export prices are described as highly volatile and strongly driven by buyer interest; if export volumes stay robust, packers expect to maintain current levels, but weaker demand could trigger price corrections.

Market listings confirm this high but recently stable pattern. In Malatya, unsulphured dried apricots are offered around 7.9–8.15 EUR/kg FOB for mid sizes and slightly higher for premium sizes, while sulphured product ranges roughly 7.3–7.9 EUR/kg. Organic unsulphured lines are mostly in the 9.0–9.2 EUR/kg band. In the European distribution hub of Dordrecht, imported Turkish sulphured apricots are offered around 6.1–7.15 EUR/kg FCA for sizes 8–0, indicating a firm but not rising wholesale level in the EU.

Supply & Demand

The new crop supply situation is fundamentally comfortable. Official assessments in Malatya point to a dried apricot harvest of 67,418 tons, and earlier frost episodes did not materially reduce this volume. Quality differentiation is significant, as reflected in the wide raw material price band, but there is no indication of a structural shortage. Overall availability from Turkey, the dominant global exporter, should be sufficient to cover normal demand.

On the demand side, the key issue is price acceptance. Some customers reduced Turkish apricot purchases last season in response to high prices and may have partially shifted to competing origins or alternative dried fruits. This season’s elevated starting prices make it harder to win back those buyers. Exporters acknowledge that maintaining strong shipment volumes will be critical: if early-season exports disappoint, the market may be forced into lower price levels later in the campaign to stimulate demand and recover lost clients.

Fundamentals & Competitiveness

The current price structure leaves Turkish dried apricots at the upper end of the global cost curve. With FOB prices near 8–9 EUR/kg and European FCA prices around 6–7 EUR/kg, Turkey risks losing share where price-sensitive buyers have options. Competition from other producing countries is explicitly cited as a concern, reinforcing expectations that prices may need to ease to rebuild market share. These are acknowledged as high export prices by local industry participants.

Internally, the spread between raw material costs (340–450 TRY/kg) and export offers suggests margins are under pressure, contributing to the tense sentiment among processors. While the absence of major crop losses is fundamentally bearish for prices, local cost inflation and currency dynamics continue to exert upward pressure on nominal TRY-based farmgate values. The net effect is a market that is well supplied but priced like a tight one, which is unlikely to be sustainable if demand fails to keep pace.

Weather & Crop Outlook

With the main damage risk period over and harvest already in progress, weather will be less of a primary driver for total supply in the very short term. However, stable, dry conditions in the coming days remain important for drying quality and minimizing post-harvest losses in Malatya and surrounding regions. Any prolonged humidity or rainfall episodes would mainly affect quality distribution and drying speed rather than total crop size, but could temporarily tighten availability of top grades.

Trading Outlook

• Short term (next 2–4 weeks): Prices are likely to remain firm but capped, with volatility around current levels as exporters test buyer resistance. High-priced offers will be easier to place in niche and premium segments than in mainstream retail lines.
• Medium term (Q4 2026): If export volumes do not meet expectations, particularly to Europe, the industry itself anticipates some price softening to regain lost customers and compete with other origins. Buyers with coverage for nearby months may prefer to wait for clearer signals.
• Strategy for buyers: Consider partial coverage at current levels only for critical or specialty needs, while keeping flexibility for potential price relief later in the season. Focus on negotiating quality and sizing rather than headline price alone, given the wide raw material range.
• Strategy for sellers: Prioritize forward sales into stable, long-term relationships to lock in margins at today’s elevated prices, but be prepared to adjust offers if shipment pace slows or competitor pricing becomes more aggressive.

3-Day Price Indication (Direction)