Turkish Dried Apricots: Firm FOB, Rising EU Stock Prices as Heat Persists

Turkish dried apricot prices are holding firm at elevated levels in early August, with no visible softening in FOB quotations from Malatya and Ankara and modest gains on EU warehouse stock. High temperatures in Malatya support drying progress, while tight global supply and a weak lira in real terms keep export interest steady. The market is entering the heart of the new-crop marketing period with stable FOB offers for sulphured and unsulphured fruit out of Malatya and Ankara, and gently rising FCA prices in Northwest European hubs. Persistent heat and dry weather in Malatya are favourable for drying quality, reducing near‑term weather risk. At the same time, earlier frost damage to the 2025 crop and structurally tight Turkish supply continue to underpin prices despite softer demand signals in parts of Europe. Exporters are focused on margin protection in EUR terms, while buyers weigh whether to extend cover now or wait for more clarity on final crop size and quality.

Prices

FOB Malatya and Ankara prices for standard Turkish dried apricots are stable compared with late July, indicating a firm but not accelerating market. Domestic wholesale indications in Malatya around 90–110 TRY/kg for remaining stocks earlier in the season translate into elevated levels in EUR terms, consistent with exporters’ current offers.

FCA prices in Northwest Europe for Turkish-origin stock have edged up by roughly 1–2% over the second half of July, reflecting strong replacement costs and limited remaining 2025-crop availability. This aligns with broader commentary that global dried apricot supply has been tight since frost damage in the 2025 Turkish crop, keeping Q1–Q3 2026 prices high and firm.

Supply & Demand

Malatya remains the core of global dried apricot supply, accounting for around 70% of world dried apricot production and the majority of Turkish exports. Earlier frost in 2025 sharply reduced output and left limited carry‑over into 2026, a key structural driver behind today’s high but steady price plateau. Alternative origins in Central Asia and Iran have increased shipments but are insufficient to fully offset Turkish shortfalls.

Export demand from Europe remains broadly steady to slightly cautious, with some downstream buyers still working through high‑priced inventories accumulated after the 2025 frost shock. Nevertheless, Turkey’s need for hard‑currency export revenue and a structurally weak lira in real terms continue to support competitive EUR‑denominated FOB levels, even as domestic TRY prices stay high.

Weather & Crop Conditions (TR)

Weather in Malatya over 7–9 August 2026 is forecast to be hot and dry, with clear skies and daytime highs around 35–36°C and warm nights. These conditions are favourable for continued sun‑drying, helping processors complete drying with low spoilage and good colour retention, particularly for sulphured grades.

No significant rainfall or cold events are expected in the coming three days, so immediate weather‑related downside risks to available dried volumes are minimal. The main medium‑term concern remains the cumulative impact of recent years’ frost and climate variability on yields, which has already translated into tighter exportable surpluses and higher global prices.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Tight carry-over: The 2025 frost‑damaged crop left low stocks entering 2026, confirmed by trade reports of limited availability and persistent high prices into Q1 2026, with the effect still visible today.
• Currency backdrop: Continued weakness and volatility of the Turkish lira versus the euro support export competitiveness in EUR, but also pressure domestic growers who face rising input costs and seek higher TRY returns.
• Concentration risk: Malatya’s dominant role in world dried apricot supply means any localised weather or logistical disruption quickly feeds into global prices.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price Indications

Trading recommendations (short term, next 1–2 weeks)

• Importers / packers (EU): Consider extending partial cover at current FCA levels for Q4 2026–Q1 2027 needs; downside from here looks limited in the short run given tight supply, while further upside cannot be excluded if demand rebounds.
• Turkish exporters: Maintain offer discipline in EUR; hot, stable weather narrows weather risk discounts, and buyers appear willing to accept today’s plateau for quality Malatya fruit.
• Industrial users: Where possible, optimise blend between sulphured and unsulphured grades to manage costs, as the premium for higher sizes and organic product remains significant.

3‑day regional directional outlook (all in EUR terms)

• FOB Malatya (TR): Prices for standard sulphured and unsulphured grades expected to remain stable over the next three days, supported by good drying weather and tight stock but no fresh bullish catalyst.
• FOB Ankara (TR): Similar profile to Malatya, with sideways price action anticipated as exporters track Malatya benchmarks.
• FCA Northwest Europe (NL hub): Stock prices likely to stay slightly firm to stable, with modest upward bias if replacement offers from Turkey remain tight and buyers return after summer holidays.