Turkish Dried Apricots: Firm Malatya FOB, Weather Risk Keeps Market Alert

Turkish dried apricot prices are holding firm in late April, with Malatya FOB levels stable and no significant week‑on‑week moves. Tight Turkish stocks after last year’s frost and cautious farmer selling keep a clear floor under the market, while April weather and new‑crop prospects in Malatya remain the key upside risk.

The market is in a pause phase: export demand is described as slow but resilient, and buyers are well covered for nearby positions, limiting spot activity. However, the fundamental backdrop of sharply lower Turkish supply in 2025/26 and reduced global ending stocks leaves little buffer if any weather issues emerge in the coming weeks. With exchange‑rate volatility and freight already priced in, the short‑term focus is squarely on Malatya’s orchards and whether the current mild, mostly dry pattern continues into flowering and fruit‑set.

📈 Prices & Spreads (all in EUR)

Using a working rate of 1 EUR ≈ 35 TRY as of April 23, 2026 , current Turkish FOB offers from Malatya and Ankara translate approximately as follows:

Product	Spec / Grade	Origin / Term	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	1W Trend
Dried apricots	No. 1, sulphured 2000 ppm	Malatya, FOB	≈ EUR 8.70	Stable w/w
Dried apricots	No. 1, unsulphured	Malatya, FOB	≈ EUR 8.55	Stable w/w
Dried apricots	No. 2, unsulphured, organic	Malatya, FOB	≈ EUR 10.35	Stable w/w
Dried apricots	No. 5, sulphured 2000 ppm	Malatya, FOB	≈ EUR 8.00	Flat after early‑April rise
Dried apricots	No. 5, unsulphured	Malatya, FOB	≈ EUR 7.80	Stable since early April

European FCA stocks of Turkish origin in Poland and the Netherlands remain at a discount to Turkish FOB Malatya, with no notable price change since mid‑April, reflecting comfortable short‑term cover in EU destinations and limited spot replenishment needs.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Weather

Turkey remains the dominant global dried apricot supplier, with Malatya alone accounting for about 95% of the country’s dried apricot output. The 2025 April frost in Malatya sharply reduced the crop, cutting exports by more than 60% year‑on‑year and drawing down stocks into 2025/26. Latest industry estimates now show Turkish total dried apricot supply in 2025/26 at less than half of the previous season, leaving world ending stocks exceptionally tight.

International demand from the EU, UK and other destinations has remained resilient despite high prices, but spot export activity is described as slow in recent weeks as religious holidays and prior forward coverage reduce near‑term buying. Competing origins such as Uzbekistan and Iran are increasing production, yet volumes remain too small to fully offset Turkish shortfalls, reinforcing Turkey’s price‑setting role.

On the weather side, Malatya orchards are currently in a critical bloom and early fruit‑set phase. Recent forecasts for eastern Türkiye call for generally mild spring conditions without immediate severe frost threats over the next few days, but night temperatures remain close enough to risk levels that local players stay cautious. With fresh apricot flows just starting to build, any late cold spell could further constrain 2026 dried supply and would likely trigger a swift bullish response in prices.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Mood

Fundamentally, the market is still digesting the structural hit from last year’s frost and the resulting low carry‑over. Industry data point to Turkish beginning stocks for 2025/26 of about 45,000 MT against a new‑season production closer to 2,000 MT, implying total availability under 50,000 MT versus nearly 115,000 MT in 2024/25. This tightness explains why Malatya FOB levels are consistently described as “high and firm” through Q1 and into late April 2026.

Speculative participation is limited, but end‑users remain reluctant to liquidate long positions given the thin supply cushion and weather uncertainty. At the same time, the current lull in export demand provides some resistance to further near‑term upside, especially in lower grades and sulphured product where buyers can defer purchases or seek partial substitution from other dried fruits. The macro backdrop, including a weaker TRY over recent months, has helped cap EUR‑denominated price escalation but is largely already reflected in current offer levels.

📆 Short‑Term Outlook (3 Days, Region: TR)

For the next three days in Türkiye (with focus on Malatya and Ankara), forecasts indicate relatively stable spring weather: mild daytime highs, cool nights but generally above hard‑frost thresholds, and limited precipitation. This should support ongoing orchard development without immediate additional damage risk, keeping the market in a watchful, range‑bound mode.

• Malatya FOB dried apricots (all grades): sideways bias in EUR terms; intraday moves likely confined to a narrow band as buyers await clearer new‑crop signals.
• Ankara FOB (sulphured grades): stable to slightly firm, with some support from nearby demand but no evidence of aggressive restocking.
• EU FCA stocks (PL, NL): small discount to origin expected to persist, reflecting logistics costs already locked in and balanced local supply.

🧭 Trading Recommendations

• End‑users / importers: Maintain at least normal coverage through Q3 2026; consider small top‑ups on price dips, as tight Turkish supply and low world stocks keep upward price risk significant if any weather issue emerges.
• Turkish packers / exporters: With stocks limited, a disciplined sales pace is warranted; avoid heavy forward selling until Malatya’s weather risk window has clearly passed and new‑crop potential is better defined.
• European distributors: Use current stable FCA levels to balance positions; shifting part of exposure into higher‑grade unsulphured and organic segments may offer better protection if a fresh weather‑driven rally occurs.

Over the coming three days, the baseline expectation is for Turkish dried apricot prices in EUR to remain broadly steady, with a modest upside skew in Malatya FOB offers if any fresh reports hint at localized weather stress. Absent such news, liquidity is likely to stay thin and trade flows measured.