Vietnam Dried Guava FOB Hanoi Edges Higher on Firm Fruit Export Demand
Concise price update for Vietnamese dried guava FOB Hanoi, with analysis of export demand, supply, weather, logistics and a 3-day price outlook in EUR.
Prices
FOB Hanoi indications for standard, non‑organic Vietnamese dried guava currently stand around EUR 4.95–5.10/kg equivalent, converted from latest USD offers, with the mid‑point modestly above early‑August levels.
The move mirrors the wider fruit and vegetable export rally: Vietnam’s sector reached about USD 6.0–6.15 billion in the first eight months of 2026, up roughly 25–28% year on year, keeping sellers confident enough to resist deeper discounts.
Supply & Demand
Vietnam’s fruit and vegetable exports are on track to reach about USD 10 billion in 2026, with August shipments alone estimated at USD 1.24–1.37 billion and year‑to‑date growth near 25%. Guava is a minor share compared with durian, but benefits from the same strong Chinese and regional Asian demand for processed fruit.
Recent trade data show Vietnam not only exporting but also importing more fruit, with fruit and vegetable imports up around 26–27% year on year in the first eight months, indicating active two‑way flows and robust processing activity. This underpins stable raw guava availability for dryers while keeping processed product well absorbed in export channels.
Weather & Logistics (VN)
Hanoi and northern Vietnam remain in the late rainy season with hot, humid conditions. Recent observations for early September show daytime highs around 31–36°C with scattered precipitation, typical for this period and not yet causing notable stress for guava orchards or harvest logistics.
On the logistics side, regional sea freight into and out of northern Vietnam is firm but not spiking; 40‑foot container rates through Haiphong in September are roughly 10% above June but stable month‑on‑month, implying only a modest cost pass‑through to FOB dried guava offers. Overall, no immediate weather or freight shock is visible for the next few days.
Fundamentals & Macro Backdrop
Vietnam’s agro‑forestry‑fishery exports reached about USD 49–49.3 billion in the first eight months of 2026, with fruits and vegetables one of the fastest‑growing sub‑sectors and contributing strongly to the agricultural trade surplus above USD 14 billion. This macro context encourages processors to keep plants well utilized and maintain offer levels.
Domestic macro indicators show exports still driving growth, while investment and public spending remain supportive. For niche processed items like dried guava, this translates into generally firm producer sentiment, limited distress selling, and a preference for short‑term contracts at current levels rather than aggressive forward discounting.
Trading Outlook
- Exporters (VN): Maintain offer levels slightly above early‑September benchmarks for Q4 liftings; consider small discounts only for larger, prompt‑shipment parcels to secure throughput while fruit export demand remains strong.
- Importers/Buyers: Cover near‑term needs in the current range; downside looks limited in the next 1–2 weeks given firm Vietnamese fruit exports and steady freight. Reserve larger volume negotiations for later in Q4 if broader soft‑commodity sentiment weakens.
- Traders: Favor a mildly bullish to sideways stance on Vietnamese dried guava; spreads versus other tropical dried fruits are unlikely to compress significantly while China‑driven demand for Vietnamese fruit stays elevated.
3‑Day Regional Price Indication (VN)
- Hanoi, FOB dried guava: Prices expected to remain in the EUR 4.95–5.10/kg band over the next three trading days, with a slight upward bias if additional short‑term export inquiries emerge.
- Vietnam overall dried fruit complex: Stable to firm, tracking strong fresh fruit export performance and steady logistics costs.