Vietnam Dried Guava FOB Hanoi: Prices Flat as Hot Weather Persists

Dried guava FOB Hanoi prices are essentially flat, with only a marginal softening, as Vietnam’s broader fruit export boom continues and hot, dry conditions dominate in the north. Tight but adequate raw fruit supply and steady processing keep the market balanced, limiting short‑term volatility. Vietnam’s fruit and vegetable export sector is enjoying strong momentum, with monthly shipments above USD 1 billion in both July and August and total exports nearing USD 6 billion in the first eight months of 2026. However, dried guava remains a niche product within this broader growth story, and current price indications suggest a stable, range‑bound market rather than a strong bull phase. In the Hanoi region, the coming days will remain very hot with little rain, which may stress orchards but is not yet triggering visible supply disruptions.

Prices

Export quotations for Vietnamese dried guava (FOB Hanoi) are holding in a tight range around the mid‑single‑digit EUR/kg area, with the latest indications just fractionally below last week’s level. Compared with earlier indications near EUR 4.80/kg in July, spot offers today are modestly higher in EUR terms, reflecting both firm underlying demand and currency effects. Overall, the current structure points to a sideways market with a slight soft tone rather than a clear up‑ or downtrend.

Supply & Demand

Vietnam’s fruit and vegetable exports are on track toward a potential USD 10 billion year, with July exports around USD 1.06 billion and August again exceeding USD 1 billion. China, South Korea, Japan and other Asian buyers remain key outlets for processed and fresh products, sustaining baseline demand for niche items like dried guava. At the same time, guava competes with higher‑value fruits, especially durian, for orchard expansion and processing capacity, so supply growth for dried guava remains measured rather than aggressive.

On the supply side, there are no short‑term reports of disease outbreaks or major storm damage in the main guava‑growing belts around northern Vietnam. Logistics for agri‑exports are functioning relatively smoothly, and there are no fresh reports of port congestion or container shortages affecting fruit shipments this week. Current conditions therefore point to a broadly balanced dried guava market: raw material is not abundant enough to pressure prices sharply lower, but also not tight enough to trigger a spike.

Weather & Crop Conditions (VN)

Hanoi and the surrounding Red River Delta, a key area for guava production and processing, are experiencing a spell of intense late‑summer heat. The national meteorological service forecasts daytime highs of 34–36°C and warm nights around 26–27°C through at least September 6, with mostly dry conditions and only scattered clouds. These conditions support fruit drying operations but can stress trees and reduce fruit size if high heat persists without compensating rainfall later in the month.

For the next 10 days, the official outlook continues to show predominantly hot, rain‑limited weather for Hanoi, with only a rising chance of showers after roughly a week. In the very short term this is mildly supportive to prices—by discouraging aggressive selling from growers—but it has not yet reached a point where market participants report significant yield losses or quality downgrades.

Fundamentals & Trade Flows

Recent trade intelligence indicates that Vietnam is an active but relatively small player in global dried guava trade, with reported July shipments primarily targeting regional Asian markets such as South Korea and other niche buyers. Average observed export prices around USD 7.4/kg in that dataset (roughly EUR 6.7/kg at current FX) sit somewhat above current spot indications from Hanoi, suggesting that recent deals may have involved higher‑spec products or smaller, premium lots.

Within Vietnam’s broader fruit export basket, dried products including guava still play a secondary role to fresh and frozen categories, especially durian, which is driving much of the sector’s value growth. However, the push toward better traceability, quality codes and cold‑chain logistics being piloted in higher‑value fruits is likely to spill over to other categories over time, providing structural support to processed fruit exports, including dried guava, and underpinning medium‑term price resilience.

Short‑Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Price bias: Sideways to slightly firm. With balanced supply and ongoing strength in Vietnam’s fruit exports, dried guava prices are likely to hold in a narrow band around current levels over the next week.
• For buyers: Consider covering near‑term needs on dips toward the lower end of the current EUR 5.2–5.4/kg FOB Hanoi working range, as hot weather and robust export flows limit downside.
• For sellers: Maintain steady offer levels; only consider discounts for larger volumes or prompt shipment. Monitor weather and any logistics disruptions closely—either could justify testing slightly higher offers if they emerge.
• Risk factors: A sudden shift to heavy rainfall or storm activity in northern Vietnam, or new logistics bottlenecks, could tighten supply and nudge prices higher. Conversely, any slowdown in Chinese or regional fruit demand would quickly cap rallies.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (EUR, Directional)