Vietnam Dried Jackfruit Slices Hold Steady as China Demand Builds

Stable dried jackfruit slice prices from Vietnam mask rising export momentum to China and a growing weather risk from a developing El Niño pattern. Buyers face a broadly balanced short‑term market, with limited price downside but a potential risk premium later in the season if heat and dryness intensify. Vietnam’s fruit and vegetable exports are accelerating again, supported by strong Chinese demand for tropical fruits including jackfruit and by new export protocols entering into force in June 2026. At the same time, meteorologists warn that El Niño conditions are set to strengthen from mid‑year, potentially stressing key farming regions and lifting costs. For now, FOB Hanoi offers for dried jackfruit slices remain broadly unchanged, but traders should be prepared for tighter margins and more volatile offers if weather impacts jackfruit yields or processing capacity in northern and central Vietnam.

Prices

FOB Hanoi quotations for conventional dried jackfruit slices from Vietnam are currently indicated around €5.75–€6.00/kg, broadly unchanged over the past three weeks. This flat profile reflects comfortable near‑term raw material availability and strong competition among processors, even as export demand trends positive.

Given relatively stable domestic fruit prices and no major logistics disruptions, Vietnamese exporters are focusing on volume growth into China rather than pushing through higher prices in late June.

Supply & Demand

China remains the dominant outlet for Vietnamese tropical fruits and is rapidly expanding imports of products such as durian, coconut and jackfruit. Official imports of fresh Vietnamese jackfruit were approved from 1 June under new GACC protocols, reinforcing China’s role as a growth market for both fresh and processed jackfruit from Vietnam.

Vietnamese fruit and vegetable exports reached about US$2.98 billion in the first five months of 2026, up nearly 30% year on year, with processed products increasing their share to over 35% of total value. This structural shift toward processed exports underpins steady demand for dried jackfruit slices, as buyers in China and other Asian markets seek shelf‑stable products to complement seasonal fresh fruit shipments.

Competition among ASEAN suppliers remains strong, but Vietnam benefits from proximity to Chinese markets, improved trade terms under RCEP and an ongoing upgrade of the China‑ASEAN Free Trade Area, all of which support sustained growth in fruit trade volumes.

Fundamentals & Weather

Meteorological agencies warn that an El Niño episode is emerging and is expected to persist from June 2026, strengthening in the second half of the year and possibly lasting into early 2027. For Vietnam, this typically implies hotter and drier conditions, particularly in key farming regions, even though overall storm counts in the East Sea may be slightly below average while extreme events remain possible.

In the short term, jackfruit orchards in northern and north‑central Vietnam are entering a seasonally wet and warm period that supports fruit development, but a shift toward prolonged heat and reduced rainfall later in Q3 could curb yields and affect fruit size and sugar content. Any deterioration in raw fruit availability would quickly translate into tighter supply of dried slices and stronger FOB offers into Q4 if demand from China continues to expand.

Short-Term Outlook (3 days, VN)

Weather in northern Vietnam, including the Hanoi region, is expected to remain seasonally hot and humid over the next three days, with scattered showers typical of the early monsoon period. No major disruptive events are forecast in the immediate term, implying normal orchard operations and processing schedules.

• FOB Hanoi dried jackfruit slices (EUR/kg): Stable in the €5.75–€6.00 range through the next three trading days.
• Bid–offer dynamics: Slightly stronger buying interest from Chinese and regional Asian buyers, but still within current range.
• Volatility: Low in the immediate term; watch for any rapid shift in regional weather commentary or Chinese import policy updates.

Trading Recommendations

• Buyers (importers/roasters, traders): Consider covering near‑term Q3 needs at current flat levels; today’s prices offer limited downside while El Niño‑related risks could lift offers later in the year.
• Vietnamese processors/exporters: Maintain offer discipline in the current range but build in flexibility for Q4 contracts, where tighter raw material supply and strong Chinese demand may justify a modest premium.
• Speculative traders: Market is range‑bound in the very short term; positioning for a gradual upside bias into late Q3–Q4 looks more attractive than shorting current levels.