Walnut Kernels: China Flat but Firm as Freight Costs Edge Up

Prices for walnut kernels are holding steady in China, India and US-origin product, with only minor gains over the past month and no visible downside momentum. Firmer ocean freight from Asia and broadly steady nut markets are underpinning current levels rather than driving a new rally. The global walnut complex is in a mid-season lull: Northern Hemisphere orchards are in the growing phase, Chile’s export window is still providing competition, and buyers are largely covered for nearby needs. Chinese FOB offers from Dalian are unchanged week-on-week but sit a few percentage points above late May, reflecting earlier buying and slightly tighter nearby supply rather than fresh demand. Ocean freight ex-Asia has risen sharply in June, increasing landed costs for importers and making further origin-side discounts unlikely in the very short term. With no major weather shocks in key origins CN/IN/US over the next three days, the market bias is mildly firm.

Prices & Recent Moves

Using an indicative rate of 1 USD = 0.92 EUR for mid-June 2026, current FOB offers translate as follows:

• Across all listed CN/IN/US lines, prices updated on 19 June 2026 are unchanged from 12 June but modestly higher than late May, pointing to a stabilisation phase rather than active rally.
• US wholesale walnut indications reported in recent nut-market commentary are generally described as steady, echoing the flat FOB kernels offers.
• Higher June container freight rates from Asia to the US and Europe are quietly tightening landed margins, supporting current origin offers even as spot demand remains moderate.

Supply & Demand Drivers (CN/IN/US Focus)

China (CN)

• China remains the largest global walnut producer, with the latest international tree-nut balance sheet still showing China as the top supplier, followed by the US and Chile.
• At this point in the season, Chinese processors are mainly moving old-crop kernels while monitoring the 2026/27 crop development. No fresh domestic policy or export headlines have emerged in the last three days that would materially shift availability.
• Front-loaded US import demand via Los Angeles – up 26% y/y in May for all goods – indicates robust US buying from Asia ahead of potential freight disruptions, indirectly supporting Chinese nut prices via stronger overall container demand.

India (IN)

• India is a small but important walnut origin and a major consumer. Global industry data puts its 2025/26 walnut crop at around 30,000 tonnes, down slightly from 33,000 tonnes the prior season, leaving overall supplies relatively tight.
• Monsoon dynamics are a key macro driver: India’s meteorological outlook now points to a somewhat weaker 2026 southwest monsoon (around 90% of the long-period average), with delays in parts of central and northern India raising broader ag-market uncertainty, although walnut orchards in Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal are less directly exposed than rain-fed row crops.
• Given stable FOB offers from New Delhi and no demand surge, the Indian walnut kernel market currently acts more as a premium niche rather than a price leader.

United States (US)

• California is the key US walnut origin. Recent trade and industry commentary suggests nut markets, including walnuts, are broadly steady with adequate but not burdensome inventories heading into summer.
• Earlier industry newsletters have highlighted efforts to resolve trade barriers and improve export access, but there have been no new tariff or policy shocks reported in the last three days that would alter near-term export flows.
• US-origin organic halves sold via European hubs (e.g. London FOB) are currently priced at a discount to Indian organic halves, suggesting sufficient supply and competitive export positioning.

Fundamentals & Weather Outlook (Next 3 Days)

Stock & Crop Balance

• Global walnut supply for 2025/26 is projected to increase slightly versus 2024/25, mainly on larger crops in the US and Chile, while China and India are roughly stable to slightly lower, keeping the world balance comfortable but not excessively loose.
• With Chile’s export season underway since April–May, buyers in Europe and MENA currently have multiple origin options, capping upside for old-crop Chinese kernels despite higher freight.

Short-Term Weather – CN / IN / US

Note: only developments with potential impact on orchard stress or logistics over the next three days are considered.

• China (CN): No extraordinary weather alerts for major northern and western walnut regions have been flagged in the most recent international ag and meteorological updates; growing conditions appear seasonally normal, with no immediate threat that would justify a risk premium.
• India (IN): Broader coverage of the 2026 monsoon stresses its slower advance across central and northern India, but this is a medium-term risk story for rain-fed crops rather than an immediate shock for tree nuts; walnut price impact in the next 3 days is minimal.
• United States (US): Public weather discussion in late June focuses more on temperature swings and local storms rather than any widespread, acute stress event in California’s Central Valley orchards; short-term production risk for walnuts is therefore limited.

Trading Outlook & Price Bias (Next 1–3 Weeks)

• Bias: Mildly firm to sideways. Stable origin offers plus rising freight argue against a near-term price break, but comfortable global supply and competition from Chile temper upside.
• Chinese kernels (CN): Light pieces and broken material have gained 1–3% since late May and now appear fairly valued. Buyers needing coverage into Q3 may consider staggered purchases rather than waiting for discounts that current freight dynamics make unlikely.
• Indian & US organic halves (IN/US): Premium segments are steady and thinly traded. End-users with strict organic specifications should avoid running inventories too low, as any later freight or tariff shock could move these markets faster than conventional kernels.
• Risk factors to monitor: July freight surcharges on Asia–US/EU lanes, any escalation in trade disputes impacting tree nuts, and early indications on 2026/27 crop size from California and key Chinese provinces.

3-Day Regional Price Indication (Directional, EUR)

• CN (Dalian FOB): Quoted levels around 2.07–2.99 EUR/kg for kernels are expected to remain stable over the next 3 days. Limited nearby supply pressure and higher freight support current offers.
• IN (New Delhi FOB): Organic light halves around 4.88 EUR/kg are seen as stable with a slight upward risk if monsoon concerns start to spill over into broader nut sentiment, but no immediate move is expected.
• US (export via EU/UK hubs): Organic light halves around 4.14 EUR/kg are also expected to trade sideways over the coming 3 days, with freight rather than farm-gate prices the main moving part.