Weather Risks in India and Smaller Australian Crop Keep Chickpeas Firm

Prices along the chickpea value chain remain under upward pressure as India’s rain deficit dents sentiment and Australia signals a smaller exportable surplus, keeping global buyers on alert for further tightening into the rabi season. Weather-driven supply concerns are now the primary driver of chickpea markets. In India, deficient monsoon rains across key pulse belts in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh have already lifted tur and chana well above year‑earlier levels, and are raising doubts about soil moisture at sowing for the upcoming rabi chickpea crop. At the same time, Australia – India’s dominant imported chickpea supplier – is expected to harvest a substantially smaller crop than last year, shifting more attention to South Asian weather and to secondary exporters such as Mexico. With wholesale indications in India and Mexico broadly steady over recent weeks, the balance of risk for prices remains skewed to the upside unless late-September rains materially improve the rabi outlook.

Prices

Authoritative market indications point to chickpea prices being around 11% higher year‑on‑year in India, in line with broad gains across pulses. This rise is more moderate than the >30% increase in tur and much lower than the 40–50% spikes in soybeans and groundnuts, but it underlines that chana is firmly in an uptrend.

Export quotations in the physical market show firm but not explosive moves over the past month. Indian chickpeas dried, FOB New Delhi, are clustered between EUR 0.85 and EUR 0.98/kg depending on size (8–12 mm), with the large 42–44 count at EUR 0.97/kg and smaller 60–62 count at EUR 0.85/kg as of 12 September 2026. Mexican-origin chickpeas dried, FOB Mexico City, are indicated at EUR 1.21/kg for 42–44 count and EUR 0.82/kg for 75–80 count on the same date, essentially flat to late August.

Supply & Demand Drivers

India remains the pivotal market. Recent assessments note that tur wholesale prices are over 30% higher year‑on‑year and chana about 11% higher, largely due to weather‑related production concerns across Maharashtra, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh. Soil moisture has declined sharply in major tur‑growing areas of Karnataka and adjoining Maharashtra, and parts of Marathwada show a rainfall deficit of around 36%, with drought‑like conditions declared in roughly 100 talukas.

These developments matter directly for chickpeas because the same states are key pulse regions and because adequate soil moisture at sowing is critical for rabi chana. If fields enter October dry, farmers may delay or reduce sowing, or switch marginal land to less risky crops, tightening 2026/27 availability. Domestic wholesale benchmarks such as Indore APMC already show firm values for both Bengal gram and Kabuli chana, reinforcing the uptrend signalled in national reports.

On the international side, Australia – the main imported chickpea supplier to India – is expected to harvest a substantially smaller chickpea crop than last season. While broader Australian winter grain forecasts have been revised higher in early September, pulses such as chickpeas are reported roughly flat to slightly lower versus earlier expectations, and industry commentary around the 2026 season points to a contraction in chickpea area following prior bumper crops. A smaller Australian exportable surplus pushes more demand towards other origins and heightens India’s sensitivity to its own rabi outcome.

Fundamentals & Weather

The fundamental pulse story is now dominated by weather. India’s Meteorological Department data and recent press updates show that subdued rainfall persisted over peninsular India into early September, with only isolated heavy events in parts of Gujarat and north Madhya Maharashtra. This pattern aligns with field-level reports of declining soil moisture in Karnataka and Marathwada and has already translated into visible stress in current kharif pulses.

For chickpeas, the key risk window is the transition into the rabi season. Market participants emphasise that moisture at sowing is crucial for good crop establishment and yield potential. Forecasts for continued below‑normal rainfall in parts of peninsular India over the near term suggest that, unless a late-September revival materialises, rabi chana area and yield expectations could be downgraded. In that case, today’s roughly 11% year‑on‑year price increase could accelerate as we move into 2027.

Globally, demand remains broadly supportive. Plant‑based protein use and traditional food demand in South Asia and the Middle East continue to underpin consumption, while no major demand shock has emerged in recent days. With Australia’s crop smaller and Mexico’s role as a niche supplier intact, the system has less slack than in prior years, making it more vulnerable to additional weather or policy surprises (such as changes in Indian import tariffs or stock limits) later in the season.

Near-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

Weather during the remainder of September and the soil moisture profile entering rabi sowing are set to be the decisive variables for chickpeas. If rainfall in late September improves markedly in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh, some production risk premium could unwind. If not, markets are likely to continue pricing in a tighter 2026/27 balance, with particular focus on Kabuli supplies given Australia’s smaller crop.

• For importers / buyers: Consider advancing coverage for Q4 2026–Q1 2027 needs, especially for large‑size Kabuli chickpeas, while FOB India prices remain only modestly above last month. Stagger purchases to manage volatility around Indian weather headlines.
• For producers in India: Monitor late‑monsoon rainfall closely and be ready to adjust chickpea sowing windows to capture any soil moisture improvement. Where moisture remains low, input use and varietal choices should prioritise drought tolerance to avoid yield losses.
• For traders: The risk‑reward profile favours maintaining a mildly long bias or at least avoiding short exposure in chickpeas until there is clearer evidence of rabi moisture recovery. Basis moves between India and Mexico/Australia merit close watching for regional arbitrage opportunities.

3‑Day Regional Price Indications

Over the next three trading days, chickpea prices on key physical corridors are expected to stay firm with a slight upward bias rather than large moves:

• India FOB New Delhi: Prices for 8–12 mm chickpeas are likely to remain in a tight range around current levels (EUR 0.85–0.98/kg), with any fresh rainfall deficits or bullish mandi data supporting a mild uptick.
• Mexico FOB Mexico City: Indications around EUR 1.21/kg for 42–44 count and EUR 0.82/kg for 75–80 count are expected to hold broadly steady, reflecting balanced nearby export demand.
• Domestic Indian mandis: Wholesale chana and Kabuli prices should stay elevated versus last year, tracking local rainfall and sowing expectations rather than international moves in the very short term.