Turkish Dried Apricots Steady But Tight as Malatya Heads into New Crop

Turkish dried apricot prices are holding firm with a slightly softer tone in European cubes, while FOB Malatya offers remain flat amid structurally tight supply and cautious forward selling. The Turkish dried apricot market is currently balanced on a narrow edge: stocks are tight after previous frost damage, yet immediate export demand is only moderate, keeping prices firm rather than explosive. In Malatya, the core origin region for dried apricots, early crop signals for 2026 are broadly positive and recent weather is cool but not damaging. Exporters are therefore in no rush to reduce offers, but buyers in Europe are seeing very slight easing in diced/cube prices as logistics normalise and some substitution from cheaper dried fruits occurs. Over the next few days, stable weather in eastern Türkiye should support calm pricing, with only minor intra-grade adjustments expected.

Prices & Spreads

Recent quotes show Turkish-origin dried apricot cubes ex-warehouse NL broadly stable around €5.50–6.40/kg FCA, with smaller cubes (no-8) trading at the lower end and larger, premium cuts at the upper end. Whole unsulphured fruit FOB Malatya and Ankara remains significantly higher, roughly in an €8.00–10.30/kg corridor depending on size and organic status, reflecting origin tightness and higher processing costs.

Price changes over the past three weeks indicate a marginal softening in European cube values (roughly €0.03–0.05/kg lower on several grades) while FOB origin offers are essentially unchanged, suggesting exporters are protecting margins at origin and that small discounts are being absorbed mainly in the distribution layer.

Supply, Weather & Demand

Turkey remains the dominant global origin, with Malatya alone accounting for the majority of world dried apricot output. After very severe frost damage in a previous season, international trade sources still describe carryover stocks into 2026 as structurally tight, keeping a firm floor under export prices despite a calmer spot market.

Recent market commentary points to a generally hopeful outlook for the upcoming 2026 crop, with orchards in Malatya progressing normally so far and no major new frost incidents reported in the last days. Over the next three days (23–25 May 2026), Malatya’s forecast calls for cool temperatures, mixed clouds and sun, and only scattered thunderstorms, with highs around 19–21°C – conditions that are not considered threatening for the developing fruit at this stage.

On the demand side, Turkey’s broader fruit export sector is expected to grow in 2026, supported by steady EU demand and rising shipments of higher value fruit products. For dried apricots specifically, buyers report firm but digestible prices and some switching to alternative dried fruits where possible; however, Turkey still holds a uniquely strong position in premium-quality dried apricots, limiting large-scale substitution.

Fundamentals & Market Tone

Analytical work on Turkish apricot prices highlights that input costs, domestic inflation and export volumes are key structural drivers. With Turkish inflation still elevated and farm input prices high, growers and packers are resisting downward pressure at origin, helping explain why FOB offers have not eased in line with small discounts seen ex-warehouse in Europe.

Industry briefings suggest that current export flows from Malatya are moderate rather than aggressive, with suppliers pacing sales to avoid running out of stock before the new crop is fully secured. Competition from lower-cost origins such as Iran and Uzbekistan continues in price-sensitive segments, but compliance and quality concerns keep core EU buyers anchored to Turkish product for branded and baby-food uses. Overall, the tone is "firm but calm": neither buyers nor sellers are currently forced into large moves.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

For the next 3–7 days, the combination of non-threatening weather in Malatya, tight but adequate stocks and steady export demand points to sideways pricing in both origin FOB and European FCA positions. No major macro or policy shocks affecting dried fruit trade have emerged in the very recent news flow, and logistics on key lanes to the EU are functioning normally.

Trading Outlook (1–3 weeks)

• Buyers (EU packers, food industry): Consider gradually covering Q3 needs at current FCA levels around €5.8–6.1/kg for mid-grade cubes, as the downside appears limited while any weather scare in June–July could quickly tighten offers.
• Origin exporters (Türkiye): Maintain offer discipline on whole unsulphured grades; current FOB levels near €8.5–9.5/kg are supported by tight carryover and firm cost structure, suggesting no need for aggressive discounting.
• Traders: Spreads between economy cubes (~€3.3/kg) and premium cubes (~€6.3–6.4/kg) remain wide; selective positioning in mid-range cubes may offer better risk-return if demand in mainstream retail lines strengthens into summer.

3-Day Regional Price Indication (EUR, Direction)

• Malatya FOB (whole, sulphured and unsulphured): Approx. €7.3–10.3/kg; expected sideways over the next 3 days on stable weather and managed export pace.
• NL / PL FCA (Turkish-origin cubes and no:8 whole): Approx. €5.1–6.4/kg for main grades; direction flat to slightly softer as distributors compete on spot sales.
• Overall Turkish dried apricot complex: Firm floor, but near-term range-bound pending clearer signals on 2026 crop size and June weather in Malatya.