ICE Raw Sugar Slides Across Curve as Brazilian FOB Prices Stay Firm

Prices across the ICE No.11 sugar curve fell sharply on 7 April, extending the recent correction in raw sugar, while physical refined sugar from Brazil remains relatively firm in EUR terms. The forward curve is still upward sloping into 2028–29, signalling that the market prices in tighter fundamentals over the medium term despite current pressure.

Raw sugar futures weakened notably, with nearby May 2026 losing almost 3% in one session, driven by long liquidation and improving short‑term supply perceptions. At the same time, Brazilian refined sugar FOB São Paulo is holding above 0.50 EUR/kg, indicating that physical offers are not following futures lower at the same pace, partly due to currency and logistics costs.

📈 Prices & Term Structure

The ICE No.11 board on 7 April 2026 shows a broad-based decline of 1.6–2.7% across listed contracts, led by the front months. May 2026 settled at 14.58 USc/lb (≈0.32 EUR/kg), down 0.39 USc/lb on the day, with July 2026 at 14.79 USc/lb and October 2026 at 15.20 USc/lb, each down around 2.4–2.5%.

Further out, March 2027 closed at 15.89 USc/lb, while March 2028 and March 2029 posted 16.54 and 17.01 USc/lb respectively, indicating a still pronounced contango. The curve shape suggests comfortable short‑term availability but expectations of firmer prices over time, consistent with structural demand growth and weather/production risks in key cane regions.

Contract	Settle (USc/lb)	Change (day)	Approx. EUR/kg
May 2026	14.58	-2.67%	≈0.32
Jul 2026	14.79	-2.50%	≈0.33
Mar 2027	15.89	-2.39%	≈0.35
Mar 2028	16.54	-1.69%	≈0.36
Mar 2029	17.01	-1.29%	≈0.37

On the physical side, recent indicative offers for refined sugar ICUMSA 45 FOB São Paulo show prices around 0.52–0.53 EUR/kg in late October 2024, modestly up from 0.51 EUR/kg earlier in the month. This still implies a healthy premium of refined FOB levels over current raw futures when adjusted for freight and refining spreads.

🌍 Supply & Demand Signals

The uniform daily loss across all ICE No.11 contracts points to a sentiment-driven move rather than a single crop shock. The contangoed curve suggests that the market expects adequate export availability in the near term, particularly out of Brazil, while still pricing in medium‑term risks such as weather volatility, acreage shifts, and competing crops.

Refined FOB São Paulo price resilience signals that buyers for high‑quality white sugar remain active, and that margins in the physical chain (freight, finance, refining) help buffer spot quotations from the immediate futures correction. The combination of softer futures and steadier physical offers may gradually improve buying interest from import‑dependent regions if the move lower in raw sugar is sustained.

📊 Fundamentals & Weather Outlook

Current pricing patterns are consistent with a market transitioning from a tight phase into a more balanced one, yet still wary of production and policy risks over 2027–2029. Higher deferred prices reflect concerns about potential yield swings in key cane regions and ongoing strong demand from food and ethanol sectors.

Weather in major cane producers over the coming days is particularly relevant: short‑term rainfall and temperature anomalies in Brazil, India and Thailand could quickly alter expectations for the new crush and export flows. With the curve already rewarding forward cover, any weather‑driven downgrade in crop expectations could flatten the contango or trigger renewed backwardation in the nearby months.

📆 Trading Outlook

• Buyers with short‑term needs may use the recent 2–3% futures correction to secure partial cover, especially where physical refined offers in EUR remain stable.
• Producers and sellers might consider incremental hedging on the 2027–2029 positions, where ICE prices remain significantly above nearby levels and still reflect a weather‑risk premium.
• Speculative participants should watch for signs of stabilization around current nearby levels; a loss of contango or tightening spreads would indicate a shift back toward supply‑driven tightness.

📉 3‑Day Price Direction (EUR Perspective)

• ICE No.11 nearby (raw sugar, EUR‑equivalent): bias mildly lower to sideways after the sharp daily fall, with potential consolidation around current levels.
• Forward ICE contracts 2027–2029: likely to remain supported relative to the front months, keeping an upward‑sloping curve in place.
• Brazilian refined sugar FOB (EUR): expected to remain stable in the near term, with only limited pass‑through from the latest futures decline.