📉 Sugar Market Struggles with Confidence – Price Swings Continue Despite Rebound
Although ICE Sugar No. 5 futures recovered slightly on 25 March 2025, sugar remains a problem child in the global market. The May 2025 contract rose 0.42% to USD 544.70/t (EUR 506.57/t), yet spot prices remain under pressure. In Poland, a 1 kg retail bag is reportedly sold for just EUR 0.37/kg, undermining efforts by producers to justify higher prices.
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📊 ICE Sugar No. 5 – Market Summary (25.03.2025)
| Contract | Close (USD/t) | Change (%) | Close (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 544.70 | +0.42% | 506.57 |
| Aug 25 | 533.80 | +0.60% | 496.43 |
| Oct 25 | 528.80 | +0.51% | 491.78 |
| Dec 25 | 525.40 | +0.48% | 488.62 |
| Mar 26 | 524.70 | +0.51% | 487.97 |
| May 26 | 519.40 | +0.62% | 483.04 |
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)
🧭 Market Drivers & Commentary
🔹 Moderate Rebound – But Still a Rollercoaster Ride
- Small gains across all contracts reflect technical recovery, not renewed demand.
- Analysts continue to describe sugar as “volatile and uncertain”.
🔹 Retail Price in Poland Raises Eyebrows
- Discounter stores in Poland reportedly offer 1 kg bags at EUR 0.37/kg.
- This is well below industry break-even and contradicts producers’ rhetoric of “necessary price increases.”
- The market policy appears disconnected from real consumer pricing.
🔹 EU Producers Still Offering EUR 0.62/kg FCA – But Buyers Unimpressed
- Spot prices hold at EUR 0.50 – 0.53/kg FCA.
- Forward offers for Q4/2025 remain high but lack conviction and urgency from buyers.
🔮 3-Day Forecast (26–28 March 2025)
| Date | Expected Range (USD/t) | Expected Range (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|
| 26 Mar | 540 – 550 | 502 – 511 |
| 27 Mar | 538 – 548 | 500 – 509 |
| 28 Mar | 535 – 545 | 498 – 507 |
📌 Outlook:
Short-term stability is possible, but sentiment remains fragile due to weak retail and wholesale alignment.
📉 Global Fundamentals
| Year | Production | Consumption | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 17.0 Mt | 18.0 Mt | 4.0 Mt |
| 2022/23 | 16.5 Mt | 17.8 Mt | 3.8 Mt |
| 2023/24 | 15.9 Mt | 17.5 Mt | 3.5 Mt |
| 2024/25* | 16.2 Mt | 17.3 Mt | 3.3 Mt |
📌 Conclusion & Strategy
✅ Sugar prices rebound – but the trend remains fragile
❌ Retail prices in Eastern Europe undercut market logic
❌ EU producers’ strategy lacks credibility when spot and retail prices diverge
Recommendations:
- 🛒 Buyers: Leverage retail pressure to negotiate better terms
- 💼 Sellers: Only push price increases with clear volume commitments
- 📊 Traders: Watch support at 535 USD/t and resistance near 550 USD/t for intraday setups
📉 Sugar remains volatile – and confidence remains shaky.