Sugar Market Extends Losses – Pressure Mounts as Demand Remains Weak

📉 Sugar Market Extends Losses – Pressure Mounts as Demand Remains Weak

On 28 April 2025, ICE Sugar No. 5 futures continued to slide, with the August 2025 contract falling by 1.72% to USD 505.30/t (EUR 470.93/t). Broad-based losses across the forward curve reflect ample supply, soft global demand, and growing pessimism among traders. Meanwhile, the EU market remains detached, with FCA spot prices stubbornly holding at EUR 0.56–0.59/kg, despite clear signs of international weakness.

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📊 ICE Sugar No. 5 – Closing Summary (28.04.2025)

Contract	Close (USD/t)	Change (%)	Close (EUR/t)
Aug 25	505.30	-1.72%	470.93
Oct 25	496.30	-1.51%	462.56
Dec 25	493.30	-1.32%	459.77
Mar 26	494.80	-1.13%	461.16
May 26	491.00	-1.04%	458.63
Aug 26	487.70	-0.98%	455.56

(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)

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🧭 Market Commentary

📉 Broad-Based Selloff Reflects Weak Fundamentals
– No new catalysts; traders continue to liquidate long positions.
– Seasonal pressure from the beginning of Brazil’s harvest also weighs heavily.

🇪🇺 EU Spot Prices Remain High – Gap Widens Further
– No adjustment in EU offers: still EUR 0.56–0.59/kg FCA.
– Import restrictions and tariff protection continue to insulate EU producers, frustrating buyers.

🛍️ Retail Market Stable at Low Levels
– No upward movement in retail prices observed across core markets.

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🛒 Current 1 kg Retail Sugar Prices (as of 28.04.2025)

Last verified within the last 3 days.

Country	Supermarket	Price per kg (EUR)	Note/Source
Germany	Edeka	0.89 €	Standard shelf price
Poland	Biedronka	0.42 €	Standard shelf price
Austria	BILLA	1.49 €	Feinkristallzucker (1 kg)
Czech Rep.	Kaufland	0.50 €	With Kaufland Card
France	Carrefour	1.60 €	Promotional offer
UK	Tesco	0.96 €	£0.82 Aldi Price Match
Netherlands	Albert Heijn	1.04 €	Kristalsuiker (1 kg)
Switzerland	Coop	1.45 €	Coop Prix Garantie Kristallzucker
Hungary	Tesco Hungary	0.69 €	Kristálycukor, 1 kg

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (29 April – 1 May 2025)

Date	USD/t Range	EUR/t Range
29 Apr	498 – 508	463 – 472
30 Apr	495 – 505	460 – 470
01 May	490 – 500	456 – 465

📌 Outlook:
Downward bias is likely to continue unless unexpected supply disruptions emerge.

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📉 Global Sugar Balance Sheet (2021–2025f)

Year	Production	Consumption	Ending Stocks
2021/22	17.0 Mt	18.0 Mt	4.0 Mt
2022/23	16.5 Mt	17.8 Mt	3.8 Mt
2023/24	15.9 Mt	17.5 Mt	3.5 Mt
2024/25*	16.2 Mt	17.3 Mt	3.3 Mt

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🧭 Conclusion & Strategy

✅ Market structure favours sellers – weak demand meets strong supply.
❌ The EU spot market remains overpriced compared to global benchmarks.
📉 Retail realities and global oversupply limit upside potential.

📌 Recommendations:

• 🛒 Buyers: Maintain a cautious approach – pressure on sellers will rise.
• 📦 Sellers: Forward sales should be volume-based; avoid speculative pricing.
• 📊 Traders: Watch support levels near USD 500/t – further breakdown possible.

📍 Summary: Another weak session for sugar, and no change in fundamental outlook.