🌾 Rapeseed Futures Retreat Slightly – Weekly Trend Remains Flat Despite Canola Surge
Rapeseed Futures Retreat Slightly – Weekly Trend Remains Flat Despite Canola Surge
Despite strong Canadian canola gains, Euronext rapeseed slipped marginally on Friday, closing the week almost unchanged. Trade sentiment remains cautiously optimistic.
📊 Market Situation & Price Development
Rapeseed prices on the Euronext settled slightly lower on Friday. The August contract fell by €1 to €471.25/t, registering a weekly loss of just €0.50/t (–0.1%).
While the Paris market moved sideways, Canadian ICE Canola contracts rallied sharply, with the July contract climbing CAD 11.20 to 712.10, supported by tightening inventories and improved trade sentiment.
| Contract | Price (€/t) | Change (€/t) | Weekly Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25 | 471.25 | –1.00 | –0.50 | ⬇️ |
| Nov 25 | 475.75 | 0.00 | –0.50 | ➡️ |
| Feb 26 | 478.25 | 0.00 | –0.75 | ➡️ |
🌍 Key Market Drivers
- Weaker Finish in Paris: Mild technical selling and end-of-week consolidation capped earlier gains.
- ICE Canola Rally: Canadian futures hit multi-month highs, driven by tight stock expectations and trade optimism.
- U.S.–China Trade Progress: Weekend reports indicate a joint economic dialogue was agreed upon in Geneva – positive for oilseed markets.
- Fund Positioning: Speculative long interest in rapeseed declined slightly, reducing upward momentum.
💼 Trading Strategy & Market Outlook
Despite the slight dip, rapeseed remains in a neutral to firm structure, supported by:
- Bullish momentum in ICE canola
- Ongoing optimism in the oilseed complex
- Limited downside in Euronext contracts near key technical supports
Strategy:
Buyers may consider positioning on price dips, especially ahead of further USDA data and with Canadian stocks tightening.
📈 3-Day Price Forecast (Aug 25 Contract)
| Date | Expected Range (€/t) | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| May 14 | 470–474 | ➡️ Stable |
| May 15 | 471–475 | ⬆️ Slight Upside |
| May 16 | 472–476 | ⬆️ Moderate |
🌦️ 14-Day Weather Outlook – Key Growing Regions
| Region | Trend | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| France | 🌤️ Mostly dry | Favourable for early development |
| Germany/Poland | 🌦️ Mixed | Intermittent showers expected |
| Ukraine | ☀️ Warm & dry | May accelerate crop progress |
| Canada (Prairies) | 🌤️ Mild & dry | Good seeding conditions for canola |
Related posts:
Rapeseed Market Dynamics: Price Pressures and Global Trade Shifts
Rapeseed Slides Again Despite Strong Canola Rally in Canada
Soybean Prices Drop as Trade Tensions and Crude Oil Weigh on Market
Rapeseed Rebounds as Soy Complex Finds Support Amid Easing Trade Tensions
Rapeseed Market Slips Amid Soybean Weakness and Demand Concerns
Rapeseed Market Stabilises, Soybean Outlook Clouded by Trade Tensions