Rapeseed Futures Surge to 6-Week High – Euro Weakness and Soy Rally Provide Lift

🌾 Rapeseed Futures Surge to 6-Week High – Euro Weakness and Soy Rally Provide Lift

Rapeseed Futures Surge to 6-Week High – Euro Weakness and Soy Rally Provide Lift

Rapeseed futures in Paris posted strong gains on Monday, buoyed by weaker euro exchange rates and a sharp rally in soybeans. August contracts reached their highest level since early April.

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📊 Market Situation & Price Development

Rapeseed prices at the Euronext ended sharply higher on Monday. The August 2025 contract rose by €9.75 to €481/t, marking the highest settlement since early April. Later contracts also posted near double-digit gains.

Contract	Price (€/t)	Daily Change	Trend
Aug 25	481.00	+9.75	⬆️
Nov 25	485.00	+9.25*	⬆️
Feb 26	487.25	+9.00*	⬆️

*Estimated based on comparable spreads and price movement.

Meanwhile, ICE Canola futures showed mixed behaviour:
– Nearby contracts declined slightly, while new crop positions gained.

Contract	Price (CAD/t)	Change	Trend
Jul 25	710.60	–1.50	⬇️
Nov 25	676.80	+6.20	⬆️

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🌍 Key Market Drivers

• Weaker Euro: Currency support helped make EU rapeseed more attractive globally.
• Soybean Rally: Soaring soybean futures on the CBOT fueled bullish sentiment across oilseeds.
• US–China Trade Progress: Negotiations ended in a breakthrough, raising hopes for sustained U.S. oilseed exports.
• ICE Canola Divergence: Nearby contracts under pressure, but new crop months rallied on supply risks and firm soy complex.
• Fundamentals Backed by WASDE: U.S. rapeseed/canola projections are moderately bullish amid rising biodiesel demand.

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💼 Trading Strategy & Market Outlook

The sharp upward move reflects a technical breakout supported by fundamentals. With soybeans and soyoil surging, rapeseed follows suit.

Strategy:

• Watch for a retest of €485/t resistance on the August contract.
• Traders should monitor soy market momentum and potential profit-taking after the rally.
• Hedging is advisable for producers as prices approach seasonal highs.

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📈 3-Day Price Forecast (Aug 25 Contract)

Date	Expected Range (€/t)	Forecast
May 14	478–485	⬆️ Strong
May 15	479–487	⬆️ Firm
May 16	480–488	➡️ Stabilizing

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🌦️ 14-Day Weather Outlook – Key Rapeseed Regions

Region	Trend	Commentary
France	🌤️ Mild & dry	Favourable for the late flowering phase
Germany & Poland	🌦️ Scattered rain	Helpful for soil moisture before pod setting
Ukraine	☀️ Dry & sunny	May stress young crops without follow-up rain
Canada (Canola)	🌤️ Dry, stable

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