Palm Oil Prices Reverse as Soy Oil Crashes – First Weekly Gain Still Possible
After four days of gains, palm oil futures fell sharply on Thursday as soy oil and crude oil collapsed. However, strong export demand keeps weekly gains within reach.
📊 Market Situation & Price Development (in EUR/t)
The July 2025 contract on MDEX dropped by 22 MYR to 3,846 MYR/t, equivalent to 769.20 EUR/t, based on a conversion rate of 5.00 MYR = 1.00 EUR.
| Contract | Price (MYR/t) | EUR/t | Daily Change (EUR) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 25 | 3,846 | 769.20 | –4.40 | ⬇️ |
| Aug 25 | 3,835 | 767.00 | –4.20 | ⬇️ |
| Sep 25 | 3,831 | 766.20 | –4.20 | ⬇️ |
🌍 Key Market Drivers
- Soy Oil Leads the Sell-Off
After rumours of a weaker U.S. biodiesel mandate, soy oil fell over 5%, dragging palm oil with it. - Crude Oil Collapse
Rising U.S. inventories and renewed Iran deal talks pressured crude, which spilt into edible oils. - Export Flows Still Supportive
Indian and Pakistani buying interest remains firm, driven by the attractive soyoil–palm oil price spread, now over 100 USD/t. - Technical Correction
After four days of recovery, Thursday’s loss appears to be a natural pause before further direction is determined.
💼 Trading Strategy & Market Outlook
Palm oil remains in a corrective consolidation. With stable export flows, the downside may be limited.
Strategy:
– Support zone: 760–770 EUR/t (Jul 25)
– Re-enter long positions if soy oil rebounds or exports confirm strength
– Watch Friday close for weekly direction
📈 3-Day Price Forecast (Jul 25 Contract in EUR/t)
| Date | Expected Range (EUR/t) | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| May 17 | 760–775 | ➡️ Sideways |
| May 20 | 765–780 | ⬆️ Bounce Risk |
| May 21 | 770–790 | ⬆️ Export-led |
🌦️ 14-Day Weather Outlook – Palm Oil Regions
| Region | Trend | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Malaysia | 🌦️ Normal rains | No disruptions; fruit development ongoing |
| Indonesia | 🌤️ Dry spells | Some stress in northern plantations |
| India | ☀️ Hot & dry | Likely to raise edible oil demand |
| Middle East | ☀️ Hot | Higher consumption expected in Ramadan follow-up |
