Sugar Futures Drift Lower – Market Pressure Builds Amid Silent EU Demand

Sugar Futures Drift Lower – Market Pressure Builds Amid Silent EU Demand

On 20 May 2025, ICE Sugar No.5 futures extended their gradual decline. The August 2025 contract fell by 0.49% to USD 487.10/t (EUR 452.00/t). Despite stable technical levels, the market lacks clear direction. Meanwhile, EU spot trade remains stagnant, and retail prices show no reaction.

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📊 ICE Sugar No.5 – Closing Summary (20.05.2025)

Contract	Close (USD/t)	Change (%)	Close (EUR/t)
Aug 25	487.10	-0.49%	452.00
Oct 25	483.10	-0.64%	447.28
Dec 25	482.80	-0.58%	447.00
Mar 26	485.40	-0.58%	449.42
May 26	483.40	-0.56%	447.56
Aug 26	480.80	-0.56%	445.14

(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.928 EUR)

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🇪🇺 EU Market Snapshot – A Quiet Spot Market

📍 EU FCA spot prices remain unchanged at EUR 0.56–0.59/kg.
📉 No significant industrial purchases reported.
📦 German producers continue to defend EUR 0.60/kg but are undercut by Polish and Dutch competition.
⚠️ Many buyers reportedly delaying Q3 negotiations.

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🛍️ Retail Sugar Prices (1 kg, verified 20.05.2025)

Country	Supermarket	Price per kg (EUR)
Germany	Kaufland	0.69 €
Poland	Biedronka	0.42 €
Switzerland	Coop	1.45 €
Belgium	Carrefour	1.60 €
France	Carrefour	1.60 €
Austria	Penny	1.09 €
Netherlands	Albert Heijn	1.04 €
Hungary	Lidl	0.80 €

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📊 Price Comparison Table

Market	Price (EUR/kg)	Comment
ICE Futures (Aug)	0.452	Downtrend continues
EU Spot FCA	0.56–0.59	Unchanged despite global weakness
Retail Germany	0.69	Stable shelf price
Retail Poland	0.42	The lowest EU benchmark remains

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🔮 3-Day Forecast (21–23 May 2025)

Date	USD/t Range	EUR/t Range
21 May	482 – 492	447 – 456
22 May	478 – 488	444 – 453
23 May	475 – 485	440 – 450

📌 Outlook:
Soft tone may persist unless macro factors or buyer interest shift.

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🧭 Conclusion & Strategy

📉 Futures market drifts, volume modest.
📦 EU spot flat and unresponsive – risk of oversupply builds.
🛍️ No retail reaction – stable margins for supermarkets.

📌 Recommendations:

• 🛒 Buyers: Good time to negotiate forward contracts under EUR 0.57/kg.
• 📦 Sellers: Avoid pricing above market – competition remains high.
• 📊 Traders: Watch USD 482/t – short-term support holding for now.

📍 Summary:
No new impulse in the sugar market. Buyers wait, sellers defend, futures erode quietly.