Turkish Hazelnut Market – Market Standstill as TMO Delays Action and Buyers Stay on Sidelines 📉
📍 The Turkish hazelnut market remains extremely quiet as we move into mid-June. Buyers and sellers remain far apart on price expectations for the 2025 crop. The Turkish Grain Board (TMO) has not released remaining stock nor made any announcements, choosing to wait for updated crop forecasts expected mid-July. Meanwhile, market prices remain stagnant, and offer lists are still fragmented across qualities and crop years.
📊 Market Overview – Week 24 (June 15, 2025)
| Product | Price (€/kg, DDP Europe) | Weekly Change | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Kernels 11–13 mm (organic) | €9.64 | +€0.07 | Slight rebound |
| Raw Kernels 11–13 mm (conventional) | €11.02 | -€0.10 | Broadly unchanged |
| Roasted Kernels 11–13 mm | €12.00 | -€0.33 | Dropping again |
| Roasted Kernels 2–4 mm | €8.46 | +€0.33 | Surprising recovery |
| Roasted Kernels 0–2 mm | €7.57 | +€0.12 | Minor upward movement |
| Hazelnut Paste | €7.28 | +€0.03 | Stable |
📉 Weekly price movement: flat
💱 TRY/EUR: Continued marginal weakening trend
🔍 Market Dynamics
💤 Demand Stagnates, Negotiations Stalled
- No significant activity for prompt or forward deliveries.
- Buyer sentiment is subdued, especially due to high premium expectations for the new crop.
- Some minor local sales occurred but did not move the needle.
⏳ TMO Postpones Action
- TMO defers decision on stock release until the mid-July crop forecast.
- Without a firm pricing signal, most exporters are awaiting TMO clarity before adjusting offers.
🐞 Pest and Quality Concerns on the Rise
- Frost damage concerns have now been surpassed by warnings about the stinkbug (marmorierte Baumwanze).
- Agronomists fear hollow kernels will distort yield expectations.
- Market fears a scenario similar to Georgia’s severe crop damage in past years.
📈 Outlook Summary
| Trend | Expectations |
|---|---|
| Short-term activity | Likely flat until mid-July |
| TMO action | Postponed, possibly coordinated with the upcoming harvest forecast |
| Price direction | Slight bearish tone for low grades; stable-to-bullish for quality kernels |
| Crop quality risks | High–stinkbug infestation may worsen into July |
| Export Outlook 24/25 | Target ~320,000 mt – resilient despite pricing pressures |
🔮 Strategic Recommendations
💡 For Buyers
- Hold until the TMO strategy is revealed and the crop picture is clarified.
- Avoid exposure to blended stock offers, particularly for natural kernels.
💡 For Sellers
- Secure positions for prompt shipping; prepare for increased demand post-crop forecast.
- Focus on transparency in grade and origin year to maintain credibility amid diverse pricing.
