Sugar Futures Mixed – August Pauses, Back Months Edge Higher

Sugar Futures Mixed – August Pauses, Back Months Edge Higher

On 04 July 2025, ICE Sugar No.5 futures showed a mixed performance. The August 2025 contract dipped slightly by 0.15% to USD 480.80/t (EUR 448.34/t) after testing highs near USD 488. The rest of the curve posted modest gains, with December and March contracts rising around 0.7–0.8%. The EU spot market remains calm, still detached from ICE volatility.

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📊 ICE Sugar No.5 – Closing Summary (04.07.2025)

Contract	Close (USD/t)	Change (%)	Close (EUR/t)
Aug 25	480.80	-0.15%	448.34
Oct 25	473.70	+0.59%	441.71
Dec 25	463.20	+0.78%	431.94
Mar 26	468.70	+0.81%	437.06
May 26	472.40	+0.66%	440.57
Aug 26	474.30	+0.46%	442.31

(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.933 EUR – ECB reference 04.07.2025)

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🇪🇺 EU Spot Market – Still Flat Despite Futures Strength

📦 European spot prices remain unchanged at EUR 0.50–0.52/kg FCA.
📉 Refiners report ongoing sluggish activity and subdued inquiries.
📊 ICE volatility not reflected in physical transactions.

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🛍️ Retail Sugar Prices (1 kg, verified 04.07.2025)

Country	Supermarket	Price per kg (EUR)
Germany	Kaufland	0.69 €
Poland	Biedronka	0.42 €
Switzerland	Coop	1.45 €
Belgium	Carrefour	1.60 €
France	Carrefour	1.60 €
Austria	Penny	1.09 €
Netherlands	Albert Heijn	1.04 €
Hungary	Lidl	0.80 €

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📊 Price Comparison Table

Market	Price (EUR/kg)	Comment
ICE Futures (Aug)	0.448	Stable after strong rally
EU Spot FCA	0.50–0.52	No change – market remains disconnected
Retail Germany	0.69	No movement – steady retail pricing
Retail Poland	0.42	Deeply discounted – unchanged

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🌍 Market Drivers

• ⚖️ Pause in speculative buying after Thursday’s sharp rally
• 🛢️ Crude oil holds steady – no fresh energy signals
• 🌾 Brazil weather outlook unchanged – harvest progressing normally
• 📉 No new developments from India or Thailand on exports

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🔮 3-Day Outlook (5–7 July 2025)

Date	USD/t Range	EUR/t Range
5 July	475 – 485	442 – 452
6 July	470 – 480	437 – 448
7 July	468 – 478	435 – 446

📌 Outlook:
The market could consolidate near current levels. A breakout above USD 488/t would require stronger fundamental triggers or fund flows.

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🧭 Conclusion & Strategy

⚖️ Market cools down after rapid rebound
📦 EU physical buyers still not engaging
📉 Futures remain disconnected from spot prices

📌 Recommendations:

• 🛒 Buyers: Wait for better alignment with spot; no urgency
• 📦 Sellers: Use October/December price strength for forward hedging
• 📊 Traders: Key resistance remains near USD 488–490/t – watch for rejection

📍 Summary:
The sugar market enters a consolidation phase. While futures remain well bid, physical markets are still quiet. Without fundamental support, upside may be capped short-term.