Sugar Beet Market at a Turning Point: Softening ICE Prices, Flat EU Spot Rates

The global sugar beet market is entering an intriguing period of relative calm after several years of high volatility. Futures prices for refined sugar (ICE No.5) are retreating from their recent highs, hinting at easing supply pressures and improving international flows. Yet, the spot market for granulated and specialty sugars in Central and Eastern Europe remains notably stable, with buyers and sellers showing little urgency to adjust offers. This backdrop follows a year marked by erratic weather, shifting EU plantings, and ongoing uncertainty in global flows due to geopolitical disturbances and the evolution of bioethanol demand. Market participants are now closely monitoring the interplay between recent downward trends on the futures exchanges and the steady hand of EU domestic prices as the new campaign unfolds. Their attention is firmly fixed on weather developments in top producing regions, the latest planting intentions, and global sugar stock revisions, all of which will shape both trading strategies and procurement decisions in the critical weeks ahead.

📈 Prices

Contract	Closing Price (USD/t)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Mär 26	426.40	-0.70%	Bearish
Mai 26	423.50	-0.64%	Bearish
Aug 26	419.80	-0.52%	Bearish
Okt 26	419.30	-0.41%	Bearish
Dez 26	421.80	-0.38%	Bearish
Mär 27	425.70	-0.33%	Bearish
Mai 27	427.90	-0.30%	Bearish
Aug 27	429.90	-0.33%	Bearish
Okt 27	432.10	-0.32%	Bearish
Dez 27	436.60	-0.32%	Bearish
Mär 28	443.20	-0.32%	Bearish
Mai 28	447.60	-0.31%	Bearish
Aug 28	450.30	-0.31%	Bearish
Okt 28	452.70	-0.31%	Bearish

 

Product (origin)	Location	Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price	Date
Sugar granulated (LT)	Marijampole, LT	0.45	0.45	2025-12-12
Sugar granulated (PL)	Kalisz, PL	0.47	0.45	2025-12-08
White-crystal Icumsa-45 (PL)	Warschau, PL	0.50	0.52	2025-12-08
Icing sugar (CZ)	Vyškov, CZ	0.65	0.65	2025-12-12

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Sluggish international demand persists, but EU consumption remains resilient.
• 2025/26 EU sugar beet acreage is stable to slightly up in most member states after last season’s contraction.
• USDA and ISO recently raised estimates for global ending stocks, mainly due to increased output in India and Thailand.
• Lower export volumes from Brazil in Q4 limited downside, but global trade flows are normalizing post-el Nino disruptions.
• Speculative positioning has turned net short, pressuring futures further as fund liquidation continues.

📊 Fundamentals

• Global output: Up year-on-year (India and Thailand rebounding strongly, Brazil at or near record exports).
• Inventories: World closing stocks expected at 90+ million tonnes (ISO/USDA Dec 2025).
• EU output: Up ~5% vs previous campaign (weather-induced losses in France partially offset by gains in Germany and Poland).
• Import/Export dynamics: EU continues as net importer; imports are forecast steady with stocks well above historical lows.
• Bioethanol: Margins remain compressed, keeping additional beet supply firmly in the food channel rather than energy.

🌦 Weather Outlook & Impact Analysis

• Western Europe (France, Germany): Mild, wet conditions continue, supporting soil moisture but delaying field work. Disease pressure is slightly elevated; yield impact limited if drier conditions return in weeks ahead.
• Eastern Europe (Poland, Baltics): Recent precipitation and mild temps bode well for overwintering. No major frost risk through next 10 days (ECMWF, 12 Dec update).
• India & Thailand: End of monsoon period; irrigation reserves adequate, crop health above average.
• Brazil: Center-South wet spell winding down, helping crush operations resume after delays.

📆 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024/25 Prod. (Mt)	Yearly Change	Stock (Mt)
Brazil	43.6	+2.0	10.5
India	37.5	+3.2	13.0
EU	16.3	+0.8	4.1
Thailand	12.8	+2.5	3.7
China	10.0	+0.2	10.1

📌 Trading Outlook

• Physical market in Europe is stable; expect little upside in spot prices in coming weeks.
• Futures market remains under pressure from net speculative short positions and improving global supply outlook.
• Weather risk limited for now, but watch for late-winter cold in Europe and late monsoon effects in Asia.
• Procurement: Buyers can afford to be patient; consider incremental purchases on dips below $420/t ICE No.5.
• Producers: Lock in margins if available above €0.50/kg spot for white sugar before potential spring volatility.

📉 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Location	Product	Current Price	3-Day Forecast	Trend
ICE (No.5)	Refined Sugar (USD/t)	426.40	424–427	Weakly Bearish
EU Spot (Poland)	Granulated (EUR/kg)	0.47	0.46–0.47	Stable
EU Spot (Lithuania)	Granulated (EUR/kg)	0.45	0.45	Flat
EU Spot (Warschau)	White-crystal (EUR/kg)	0.50	0.49–0.50	Stable/Soft