Sugar Cane Prices Face Crossroads: Recovery or Further Downturn?

The global sugar cane market is at a decisive moment, with volatility returning following a prolonged downturn in prices. Over the past year, sugar prices have sharply corrected as production forecasts improved, particularly in Brazil and Thailand. Yet, market sentiment remains divided as recent extreme weather in top-producing regions and policy shifts in India continue to cloud the outlook. Meanwhile, European market dynamics are also shifting, with prices gradually declining amid oversupply and increased imports, but downward momentum could be tested as stocks deplete into the summer. Factors such as record Brazilian exports, Indian production swings, and erratic rainfall are all playing pivotal roles. With global ending stocks tightening despite robust physical supply, traders are bracing for potential price fluctuations in the weeks ahead. The next few days will see the interplay between fresh harvest data, weather conditions, and speculative flows shaping the path for sugar cane prices, making close market monitoring more crucial than ever for industry participants.

Please read below for a detailed breakdown of current pricing, supply-demand fundamentals, key market drivers, weather forecasts, production changes, and a concise trading outlook.

📈 Prices: Latest Sugar Market Snapshot

Contract	Closing Price (US-Cent/lb)	Weekly Change (%)	Sentiment
Mar 26 (ICE No. 11)	14.82	+2.29%	Stable/Firm
May 26	14.42	+2.22%	Stable
Jul 26	14.44	+2.15%	Stable
Oct 26	14.77	+1.96%	Neutral
Mar 27	15.47	+1.75%	Moderately Bullish
May 27	15.35	+1.63%	Moderately Bullish
Jul 27	15.38	+1.56%	Stable
Oct 27	15.61	+1.47%	Stable
Mar 28	16.17	+1.30%	Bullish
May 28	16.00	+1.31%	Bullish
Jul 28	15.99	+1.38%	Stable
Oct 28	16.18	+1.36%	Stable

EU and UK Bulk Spot (recent):

Location	Type	Price (EUR/kg)	Sentiment
Vyškov, CZ	ICUMSA 45	0.57	Firm/Bullish
Mirijampole, LT	ICUMSA 45	0.53	Stable
Norfolk, GB	ICUMSA 32	0.56	Neutral
Berlin, DE	ICUMSA 45	0.67	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Fundamentals

• Global supply is under pressure after extreme weather and fires hit Brazil in 2024, lowering production projections for the world’s top exporter. 2024/25 cane output is forecasted at 645–677 million tons, down from record 713 million tons last year, with drought and fire damage lingering into the current harvest【6:2†full-posts-2024.json】【6:18†full-posts-2025.json】.
• India’s output volatility: India’s output for 2024/25 declined due to erratic rainfall and disease, but a 25% rebound is forecast for 2025/26, driven by excellent monsoon and larger planting area【6:5†full-posts-2025.json】【6:8†full-posts-2025.json】.
• Thailand is set to boost exports by 18%, expanding global supply but also intensifying price pressure as more cane syrup hits the world market【6:19†full-posts-2025.json】.
• Global ending stocks are tightening despite robust overall output. According to the ISO, 2024/25 global stocks may fall by 6.1% as consumption outpaces production and India’s exports slow【6:12†full-posts-2024.json】【6:19†full-posts-2025.json】.
• EU Overhang: The European market faces persistent downward pressure from oversupply and abundant imports, with prices in the €0.50–€0.54/kg FCA range, but fundamentals point to stabilization as stocks run down toward autumn【6:13†full-posts-2024.json】【6:11†full-posts-2025.json】.

📊 Market Drivers

• USDA & ISO Reports: Recent USDA forecasts signal a decline in Brazilian and Indian production for 2024/25, but a notable recovery for India in 2025/26. ISO expects a 3.58m ton deficit in 2024/25.
• Speculative activity: Large net short positions have built up on the New York ICE, making the market prone to sharp rallies if specs cover. Volatility is likely to persist【6:19†full-posts-2025.json】.
• Ethanol Policy: India’s static ethanol prices versus surging cane prices undermine miller margins and reduce incentives for diversion to ethanol, potentially adding more sugar to the global supply if not resolved【6:17†full-posts-2025.json】.
• Global demand: Remains relatively firm, with Asia and Africa leading import demand, but some risk from recessionary pressures in developed economies.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Brazil: The end of severe drought and a resurgence of rainfall have helped stabilize the cane crop. Key producing states (São Paulo, Minas Gerais) expect near-average precipitation ahead, tempering fears of further declines【6:2†full-posts-2024.json】.
• India: The monsoon forecast for the coming months remains positive, improving irrigation and yield prospects for 2025/26.
• Thailand: Seasonal forecasts suggest normal to above-normal moisture, supporting expanded output and exports.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

Country	2024/25 Sugar Output (mt)	% Change YoY	Stocks Trend
Brazil	~44.7	-5%	Stable/Tightening
India	28 (24/25), 35 (25/26 est.)	-18% / +25%	Declining then Rising
Thailand	10.35	+18%	Rising
EU	15.5	Flat	Stable
China	10.3	+5%	Stable/Balanced

Source: Conab, USDA, ISO【6:18†full-posts-2025.json】【6:5†full-posts-2025.json】【6:19†full-posts-2025.json】.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Producers: Consider locking in prices during any weather-driven rallies.
• Buyers: Use price dips for forward cover; pay close attention to Indian export policy and inventory reports
• Traders/Investors: Stay alert for short squeezes in ICE futures and be wary of speculative volatility—monitor COT data and weather headlines.
• Bears should watch for signs of demand pullback or further export expansion from Thailand.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Exchange	3-Day Forecast
ICE No. 11 (US-Cent/lb)	14.65 – 14.95 (volatile, tending higher if weather fears resurface)
EU Bulk Spot (EUR/kg)	0.53 – 0.57 (steady, some upside if stocks tighten unexpectedly)
London White Sugar (USD/t)	510 – 525 (sideways to slightly firmer)

 

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