Sugar Cane Market Analysis: Resilience Returns Amid Stable Trading

The global sugar cane market is navigating a notably steady phase, as demonstrated by the recent trading activity on the ICE Zucker Nr. 11 futures. While volatility has eased, subtle shifts across monthly contracts reveal complex undertones that market participants should not overlook. The March 2026 contract closed marginally higher, signaling a restoration of confidence, whereas further-out contracts ticked lower, hinting at underlying caution regarding future fundamentals. With over 210,000 contracts traded, liquidity suggests a market not devoid of interest—despite mostly range-bound price action.

The interplay between short-term optimism and medium-term uncertainty epitomizes a sector balancing immediate supply assurance against lingering questions over future output and demand. For traders and industry stakeholders, understanding these nuanced price signals is crucial as external factors such as crop forecasts, macroeconomic headwinds, and weather outlooks will shape strategies in the sessions ahead.

📈 Prices: Recent ICE Zucker Nr.11 Futures Performance

Contract	Closing Price (US-Cent/lb)	Change	Change (%)	Volume
Mär 26	13.78	+0.03	+0.22%	69,612
Mai 26	13.49	+0.01	+0.07%	91,519
Jul 26	13.48	0.00	0.00%	24,747
Okt 26	13.82	-0.02	-0.14%	14,323
Mär 27	14.54	-0.03	-0.21%	7,740
Mai 27	14.40	-0.04	-0.28%	1,700
Jul 27	14.42	-0.05	-0.35%	737
Okt 27	14.70	-0.05	-0.34%	177
Mär 28	15.33	-0.04	-0.26%	108
Mai 28	15.18	-0.04	-0.26%	29
Jul 28	15.17	-0.03	-0.20%	8
Okt 28	15.38	-0.03	-0.20%	0

Total Volume: 210,700 contracts

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Stable Near-Term Supply: March and May 2026 contracts show mild gains, reflecting sufficient supply and controlled inventories in the short term.
• Longer-Term Uncertainty: Gradual price softening for contracts beyond July 2026 suggests concern about production growth or rehabilitation of stocks, possibly due to weather risks or policy uncertainty impacting output in Brazil, India, and Thailand.
• Strong Trading Interest: High open interest and trading volume—especially in near-term contracts—signal continued engagement from commercial hedgers and speculators.

📊 Fundamentals

• Global Production: Leading exporters remain Brazil (dominant), India, Thailand, and the EU.
• Inventories: Industry anecdotal evidence points to stable but not excessive reserves in key exporting nations, but any adverse weather could quickly draw down stocks.
• Speculative Positioning: Flat mid-curve contracts and a slow increase further forward suggest speculators remain cautious, perhaps waiting for further guidance from supply and weather reports.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Impact on Yields

• Brazil: Recent dryness in center-south regions could threaten second-half 2026 cane yields if persistent.
• India: Monsoon progression appears normal; sudden shortfalls remain a perennial risk.
• Thailand: Drought concerns have somewhat eased, but water reserves are still below average—monitor for any renewed risks.

🌏 Production & Stock Comparisons

Country	2023/24 Production (MT raw)	2023/24 Ending Stocks (MT)
Brazil	~42m	~6.5m
India	~34m	~8.4m
Thailand	~8m	~1.2m
EU	~15m	~2.2m

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term strategy: Favor cautious long positions in March and May 2026 on stable near-term fundamentals and moderate upward momentum.
• Forwards (2027+): Monitor for weather disruptions or new policy signals—further weakness in these contracts could offer opportunistic entries for physical buyers.
• Hedge physical exposure for late 2026/early 2027 harvests as weather-related volatility risk rises.
• Retail traders: Avoid aggressive speculating in illiquid, further-out contracts.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (ICE Futures)

• March 2026: 13.75–13.85 US-Cent/lb (stable to slight upside on firm demand)
• May 2026: 13.45–13.55 US-Cent/lb (mild gains; low volatility expected)
• July 2026: 13.40–13.55 US-Cent/lb (neutral bias; watch liquidity)