Soybeans Market: Momentum Builds on CBOT as Chinese and US Prices Diverge

The global soybeans market is entering a phase of nuanced optimism, with Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) futures showing steady to slightly higher closes despite recent volatility. A detailed look at the latest contract settlements reveals a mild uptrend for nearby deliveries, while deferred months remain mostly flat or slightly higher. This resilience is primarily rooted in the mixed signals from various soybean derivatives—soyoil and soymeal—where modest price gains in soyoil contrast with minor declines in soymeal.

Meanwhile, the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) in China reports robust gains, outpacing Western markets and highlighting sustained domestic demand against a backdrop of evolving international trade flows. The interplay between steady US export activity, elevated Asian demand, and anticipations of large South American harvests shapes current market sentiment. Participants keenly watch supply chain developments, speculative positioning, and the potential impact of weather anomalies on global crop yields. In this climate, market actors must balance the risks and rewards of forward contract positioning with vigilant attention to fundamentals and short-term price signals.

📈 Prices

Exchange	Contract	Last Price	Weekly Change	Currency/Unit	Market Sentiment
CBOT (Soybeans)	Mar 26	1134.75	+1.25 (+0.11%)	US-Cent/bu	Neutral – mild uptrend
CBOT (Soybeans)	May 26	1150.25	+1.25 (+0.11%)	US-Cent/bu	Cautiously optimistic
CBOT (Soybeans)	Jul 26	1162.75	+1.25 (+0.11%)	US-Cent/bu	Stable
DCE (China)	Mar 26	4564	+55 (+1.21%)	CNY/t	Strong demand – bullish
DCE (China)	May 26	4657	+81 (+1.74%)	CNY/t	Strong
Physical Market (US)	FOB Washington D.C.	0.52	0.00 (0.00%)	EUR/kg	Stable
Physical Market (Ukraine)	FOB Odesa	0.34	0.00 (0.00%)	EUR/kg	Stable/Weak

🌍 Supply & Demand

• US market: CBOT contracts show small gains for nearby and stable values in deferred positions, suggesting steady US demand, moderate export interest, and manageable inventories for now.
• China: DCE futures have outperformed, gaining over 1% this week on heavy traded volume, a sign of ongoing robust domestic crushing and consumption.
• South America: While not directly visible in contracts, anticipation of a significant Brazilian and Argentinian harvest is dampening further upside for deferred months on CBOT and influencing global supply expectations.
• Global Trade Pulse: US FOB prices are holding steady, but remain above Ukrainian imports into the EU, reflecting both freight costs and premium for US origin.

📊 Fundamentals

• CBOT Soybeans: Recent settlements show modest upward movement for March, May, and July 2026 contracts. The slight uptick of ~1.25 US-Cent (0.11%) signals cautious buying interest amid balanced supply-demand dynamics. Deferred contracts (late 2026/2027) reflect a lack of clear bullish catalyst, trading largely sideways.
• CBOT Soyoil & Soymeal: Soyoil posts incremental gains across maturities (+0.2 to +0.3 US-Cent/lb), reinforcing the oilseed’s value chain. In contrast, soymeal slips marginally (-0.1% to -1.4%), hinting at stabilizing or weakening livestock demand or improved South American supply outlook.
• DCE (China) Soybeans: March to November 2026 contracts registered firm gains (+1.2–1.7%), underlining a consistent domestic bid, although this may also reflect currency effects, inventory restocking, or tightening internal logistics.
• Physical Offers (Supplementary): US (0.52 EUR/kg), Ukraine (0.34 EUR/kg), China (domestic yellow, organic 0.76 EUR/kg) – all stable, supporting a broadly balanced world market.

📌 Market Drivers & External Influences

• USDA Reporting: Recent data suggests that US export sales remain active, but not spectacular; global carryover stocks are forecasted to grow if the South American crop materializes as expected.
• Speculative Positioning: Open interest remains high across front months at CBOT, indicative of strong commercial and speculative interest, but also risk of sharp corrections if sentiment sours.
• South American Crop Prospects: A record Brazilian soybean harvest is anticipated, with weather conditions mostly cooperative (see below), placing a ceiling on further price upside for deferred US contracts.
• Crush Margins: Improving in China but narrowing in the US as meal values soften, also reflected in the relative performance of oil vs. meal futures.

🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• Brazil: Rains have arrived in key Mato Grosso and Paraná regions, expected to support late-podding and filling of soy crops. Harvest advances are on pace.
• Argentina: Scattered precipitation restores some confidence, but persistent dryness lingers in fringe areas, keeping yield projections capped.
• US Midwest: Mild winter allows for early fieldwork; longer-term outlook needed for planting intentions, but current weather provides no acute threats.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks Snapshot

Country	Estimated 25/26 Production (Mt)	Stock Trend
Brazil	~157	Rising – record harvest likely
US	~117	Steady – small build expected
Argentina	~45	Up – recovering from drought
China (imports)	~100	Stable to rising
EU (imports)	~15	Stable

🧭 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term momentum is mildly positive for nearby CBOT contracts; technical support at 1130 US-Cent/bu appears robust.
• Chinese market shows strongest gains; Chinese futures buyers may continue to drive near-term price action.
• Deferred months (Nov 2026 and beyond) face headwinds from anticipated Brazilian supply and potential bearish reversal if South American harvest exceeds estimates.
• Physical buyers should remain flexible; opportunities may arise on local basis moves, especially in the US and Black Sea region.
• Commercials: consider hedge strategies for deferred positions; speculative market shows signs of complacency.

📅 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Exchange	Product	Forecast	Basis
CBOT	Soybeans (Mar 26)	1132 – 1142 US-Cent/bu	Sideways to slight uptrend; watch export data
DCE (China)	Soybeans (Mar 26)	4540 – 4600 CNY/t	Continued firm demand; likely rangebound
Physical (US)	FOB Washington D.C.	0.51 – 0.53 EUR/kg	Stable market; small spot fluctuations
Physical (UA)	FOB Odesa	0.33 – 0.36 EUR/kg	No major supply shocks; expect stability