Sugar Market Surges: Robust Price Gains Ahead of New Crop Year

The sugar cane market is marking a significant upturn, with raw sugar futures on the ICE exchange reporting sharp advances across forward contracts. Recent market activity, anchored in robust trade volumes and steady incremental gains, signals renewed optimism among speculators and commercial participants alike. After a moderate winter period, the market has found momentum, reflecting not just a technical correction but also underlying structural factors in global supply and demand. In particular, the sharp uplift in the March 2026 and May 2026 contracts underscores expectations of tighter future supplies and improved off-take from key importers. Meanwhile, strong turnover volumes point to high market participation and a supportive sentiment.

Market fundamentals are coming into sharper focus, with the upward trend in settlement prices mirroring a marketplace that is cautiously optimistic but vigilant to evolving risks—most notably, weather volatility in the main producing regions such as Brazil, India, and Thailand. As we break down the latest price movements, supply/demand trends, and weather-driven outlooks, participants should stay alert to emerging signals for both risk management and opportunity capture.

📈 Prices: ICE Raw Sugar Futures Snapshot

Contract	Prev Close (USc/lb)	Close (USc/lb)	Change (USc/lb)	Change (%)	Volume	Sentiment
Mar 26	13.86	14.17	+0.31	+2.19%	56,713	Bullish
May 26	13.48	13.76	+0.28	+2.03%	89,148	Bullish
Jul 26	13.48	13.72	+0.24	+1.75%	27,286	Bullish
Oct 26	13.82	14.03	+0.21	+1.50%	16,975	Positive
Mar 27	14.54	14.72	+0.18	+1.22%	7,872	Positive
May 27	14.39	14.54	+0.15	+1.03%	2,128	Positive
Jul 27	14.41	14.53	+0.12	+0.83%	1,004	Neutral
Oct 27	14.67	14.78	+0.11	+0.74%	507	Neutral
Mar 28	15.28	15.38	+0.10	+0.65%	231	Neutral
May 28	15.13	15.22	+0.09	+0.59%	155	Neutral
Jul 28	15.11	15.19	+0.08	+0.53%	85	Neutral
Oct 28	15.31	15.40	+0.09	+0.58%	47	Neutral

🌍 Supply & Demand: Market Drivers

• Strong Trade Volumes: Over 200,000 contracts traded, indicating robust market liquidity and active risk management.
• Forward Curve Steepening: Notable price step-ups between near-month (Mar–Jul 26) and longer-term (Mar–Oct 28) contracts, suggesting expectations of tighter supply or higher demand in later periods.
• Speculative Interest: The marked gains in prompt contracts are consistent with increased speculative activity, as traders anticipate further upside potential.
• Global Factors: Market sentiment is being shaped by Brazil’s 2023/2024 harvest, ongoing drought risks in Thailand, and variable Indian export policies.

📊 Fundamentals: Inventories & Positioning

• USDA Data: Last USDA WASDE report signaled modestly reduced global ending stocks, with Brazil compensating for ongoing shortfalls in India and Thailand.
• Import Demand: Notable buying activity from China and Indonesia adds positive pressure on futures.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money likely retaining net long positions in anticipation of further tightening in the physical balance sheet.

☀️ Weather Outlook for Key Producers

• Brazil: Mild and drier-than-normal conditions in Centre-South region may accelerate crushing pace but marginally curtail yields by late February.
• India: Scattered rainfalls have eased some local drought worries, but long-term monsoon prospects remain crucial to the coming crush season.
• Thailand: Dryness continues in key provinces, risking a third consecutive sub-par harvest if conditions do not improve soon.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks: Exporters vs. Importers

Country	Production (Mt, latest)	Stocks (Mt)	Trend
Brazil	40.4	6.1	Up
India	31.7	8.4	Down
Thailand	8.9	1.9	Down
EU	15.6	2.6	Stable
China	10.1	1.1	Up

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• For Exporters: Hedge future sales in higher contracts (Mar–Oct 27 and beyond) as the curve remains upward sloping.
• For Importers: Lock in physical cover for forward needs, especially through mid-2026 contracts, to capitalize on current price levels before further escalation.
• Watch Weather: Monitor weather bulletins closely in Brazil, India, and Thailand for yield-impacting events.
• Speculators: Maintain net long bias but set trailing stops to protect against sharp corrections on position reversals or sudden macro shocks.

⏭️ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (ICE No.11 Contracts)

Contract	Current	3-Day Forecast	Trend
Mar 26	14.17 USc/lb	14.25–14.45 USc/lb	Firm
May 26	13.76 USc/lb	13.80–14.00 USc/lb	Upward
Jul 26	13.72 USc/lb	13.75–13.95 USc/lb	Stable–Up
Oct 26	14.03 USc/lb	14.05–14.20 USc/lb	Stable

All analysis and insights strictly anchored in the provided raw ICE No.11 sugar market data; supplementary supply-demand and weather context included for enhanced reader value.