Ukraine’s Sunflower Market Surges Amid Frosts, Logistics Snarls, and Strong Oil Prices

The sunflower market in Ukraine finds itself at a critical juncture, shaped by late-winter weather disruptions and dynamic supply-demand factors. Recent frosts and snowfalls have again hampered grain and oilseed deliveries to Ukrainian ports, straining already challenging logistics. While processors anticipate a seasonal upswing in sunflower arrivals, the resumption of plant operations is strategically timed to exploit high prevailing oil prices. This environment has led to a notable weekly rise in raw sunflower prices, with strong competition between port-based buyers and domestic processors. Sunflower’s status as Ukraine’s premier oilseed crop, and the implications of weather on movement and supply, are under greater scrutiny, especially as Europe and global customers monitor Ukrainian export potential.

Notably, sunflower purchase prices have climbed by 500 UAH/t in the past week, reaching 30,000-31,000 UAH/t (USD 610-630/t) for 50% oil content, plant-delivered and net of VAT. Port processors are offering even higher rates for large lots, prompted by urgency to secure supplies despite infrastructure constraints. By contrast, domestic plants enjoy stable raw material inflows, facilitating robust operational continuity amid volatility elsewhere. As the spring approaches, this market tension, reinforced by high oil prices and unpredictable logistics, sets the stage for ongoing price movement and competitive dynamics.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price	Update Date	Market Sentiment
Sunflower seeds (black, 98%)	Ukraine	Kyiv	FCA	0.63	0.63	2026-02-20	⏸️ Stable
Sunflower seeds (black, 98%)	Ukraine	Odesa	FCA	0.63	0.63	2026-02-20	⏸️ Stable
Sunflower seeds (black, 98%)	Moldova	Rheinfelden Herten (DE)	FCA	0.45	0.45	2026-02-16	⏸️ Stable

UAH/t wholesale prices in Ukraine (50% oil content, plant-delivered): 30,000-31,000 UAH/t (USD 610-630/t, excl. VAT). Ports may pay premium for large volumes.

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Sourcing & Logistics: Severe frosts and snowfalls in Ukraine are slowing sunflower deliveries to ports, tightening near-term exportable supply.
• Processor Activity: Many plants have just resumed processing, anticipating higher seasonal supply but taking advantage of high current oil prices.
• Domestic Stability: While port supply is erratic, in-country plants are better stocked and operating at a steadier pace.
• International Context: Sunflower remains a critical oilseed for EU and MENA destinations, with Ukraine one of the largest exporters globally.

📊 Fundamentals

• Recent Price Moves: Sunflower price increased by 500 UAH/t this week on strong oil demand and competition among buyers.
• Speculative Activity: Tight supply and high oil prices have attracted both end-users and speculators, amplifying price action.
• Stock Levels: Domestic processors are adequately supplied; however, port-facing inventories are tighter, leading to price premiums for exportable lots.
• Competitive Raw Material Sourcing: Processors at ports pay above market for large batches to fulfill pending obligations and ride high oil pricing.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Ukraine: More frost and snowfall are expected in the next 3-5 days, threatening further delays in transport/logistics for sunflower deliveries to ports.
• Impact on Yields: While current weather mainly affects logistics (not standing crop), persistent cold and late spring can delay new season fieldwork and potentially marginally reduce next season’s yield potential if prolonged.

🌐 Global Comparison

• Ukraine: Largest exporter, current prices rising on logistics complications and oil market strength.
• Moldova: FCA offers lower (EUR 0.45/kg) than Ukraine, possibly reflecting less severe logistical constraints or quality differentials.
• Bulgaria & Others: BG offers stable (EUR 0.43–0.64/kg) — still below Ukrainian prices, confirming Ukraine’s recent market premium.

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term: Expect prices to stay firm/slightly higher as cold prolongs logistical bottlenecks and ports compete for limited batches.
• Buyers: Book essential volumes now, especially for export, as port competition keeps price premiums in play.
• Processors: Secure raw sunflower from inland sources to minimize exposure to port logistics delays. Be cautious with large export contracts until weather improves.
• Traders: Monitor weather closely, as a thaw could suddenly accelerate arrivals and pressure prices late in the week.
• Speculators: Opportunity exists for holding long positions while near-term tightness persists, but watch for sudden reversals if weather breaks.

📆 3-Day Price Forecast

Location	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Day 1	Day 2	Day 3
Kyiv (UA, FCA)	0.63	0.64	0.64	0.63
Odesa (UA, FCA)	0.63	0.64	0.64	0.63
Rheinfelden Herten (DE, MD origin, FCA)	0.45	0.45	0.45	0.45