Record Crushing: Ukraine’s Rapeseed Processing Surge Redefines the Market

The rapeseeds market is entering a period of exceptional transformation, driven primarily by Ukraine’s path-breaking capacity expansion in oilseed processing. In the 2025/26 marketing year, Ukraine is forecasted to reach record levels in both rapeseed and soybean processing—a development that stands to reconfigure not just local dynamics, but global flows of rapeseed oil and oilseeds. With rapeseed processing expected to hit 1.7 million tons (over half the national harvest), and soybeans at 3 million tons (over 60%), Ukraine is set to produce an estimated 720 thousand tons of rapeseed oil and 600 thousand tons of soybean oil.

These figures represent historic highs for the industry, underscoring Ukraine’s ambition and ability to move further up the value chain from raw seed exports toward processed oils. For market players, this massive uptick in processing signals potential shifts in export patterns, changes in the structure of regional crushing margins, and possible knock-on effects to European and global rapeseed oil prices. As the industry pivots from a focus on seed exports to processing, traditional trade routes and supply balances may undergo significant recalibration, while Ukrainian processors seize a greater share of the market’s added value. The following report dissects these recent developments, supplements the narrative with current market prices, and explores the wider implications for supply, demand, and future trading strategies.

📈 Prices

Origin	City	Delivery Terms	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Last Update	Market Sentiment
Ukraine	Kyiv	FCA	0.59	0.59	2026-02-20	Stable
Ukraine	Odesa	FCA	0.61	0.61	2026-02-20	Stable
France	Paris	FOB	0.55	0.55	2026-02-04	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Surging Ukrainian Processing: Over 50% of Ukraine’s rapeseed harvest is expected to be processed domestically, indicating a structural shift toward value-added exports (oils over seed).
• Global Trade Realignment: Increased processing may reduce Ukraine’s exports of raw seeds but boost rapeseed oil supplies into global markets, potentially easing pressure on European crushers and changing regional trade balances.
• Stable European Prices: No major price volatility reported in the latest pricing (EUR 0.59-0.61/kg in Ukraine, EUR 0.55/kg in France), indicating stable market conditions amid anticipated processing expansion.
• Pace of Crushing: With 1.7 million tons targeted for processing, Ukraine’s factories are likely to run near capacity, favoring domestic margins over raw export premiums.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Data

• Total Ukrainian Rapeseed Harvest (2025/26): Implied volume >3.4 million tons (since 1.7 million tons equals slightly over 50% of the harvest, per Raw Text)
• Projected Rapeseed Oil Output (Ukraine): 720,000 tons (record level)
• Projected Ukrainian Soybean Processing: 3 million tons (over 60% of soybean harvest)
• Regional Context: While Ukrainian prices remain steady, France (another major player) shows no significant moves, affirming current market stability.

☁️ Weather Outlook

• To supplement industry fundamentals: recent web data indicate average to above-average precipitation in Ukraine and France, supporting rapeseed yield expectations for 2026. No immediate weather-related threats have been flagged for key growing regions.
• Stable weather increases confidence in projected processing and supply figures.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

Country	Harvest (2025/26, est. million tons)	Processing Volume (million tons)	Share Processed (%)	Rapeseed Oil Output (thousand tons)
Ukraine	>3.4	1.7	>50	720
France	Est. 4.0	Varies	~45	~700
EU27 (total)	Est. 19-20	Varies	Varies	Est. 7,100

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor Ukrainian crusher capacity utilization: high processing rates may limit raw seed exports, tightening spot offers.
• Expect relative stability in local seed prices, with oil values commanding increased attention in trading strategies.
• Watch for European/Asian buyers to pivot to Ukrainian rapeseed oil, potentially impacting competing exporters’ margins.
• Weather and logistics remain key near-term risks but are currently viewed as benign.
• Speculators: Stable pricing and record processing may dampen volatility, favoring carry trades over outright directional bets.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Location	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Forecast Range (EUR/kg)	Trend
Kyiv (UA)	0.59	0.58 – 0.60	Stable
Odesa (UA)	0.61	0.60 – 0.62	Stable
Paris (FR)	0.55	0.54 – 0.56	Stable