Sunflower Market Sinks Amidst Oilseed Volatility: Trends & SAFEX Insights

The global sunflower market finds itself at a pivotal juncture, shaped by intense volatility in related oilseed sectors and distinct market moves, especially on SAFEX. In recent sessions, SAFEX sunflower contracts have exhibited clear downward adjustments, with most forward contracts from February to March 2026 posting declines of 0.95% to 1.21%, correlating with a wider oilseed complex reacting to robust soybean crush demand in the US and rising forecast acreage there. Notably, broader oilseed trends, including a significant rally in rapeseed futures on Euronext for new crop positions, further color the sunflower seed outlook and prompt strategic consideration for market participants. Farmers are now compelled to closely monitor the widening price spreads between old and new crops, a symptom of emerging uncertainty and inventory management by oil mills, underscoring both opportunity and risk in timing sales.

Recent sunflower prices across key export locations remain stable but cautious, with Ukrainian and Bulgarian FCA offers ranging €0.43–0.64/kg. This firmness runs parallel to stagnant global production and less-than-expected downdrafts in sunflower-related products, even as rapeseed and soy oil markets show heightened activity and speculation. For those trading or processing sunflower, the present climate urges a vigilant appraisal of both local supply-demand signals and global oilseed flows. In light of recent SAFEX softness, portfolios should be adjusted nimbly, aiming to leverage temporary price spikes while safeguarding against further corrections. With global oilseed inventories and weather outlooks still in flux, the sunflower market remains delicately balanced, awaiting directional cues from both exchange dynamics and fundamental drivers.

📈 Prices & Market Sentiment

Contract (SAFEX)	Previous Close (ZAR/t)	Last Close (ZAR/t)	Change	Change (%)	Volume
Feb 26	9590.00	9500.00	-90.00	-0.95%	47
Mar 26	9193.00	9083.00	-110.00	-1.21%	199
Apr 26	9209.00	9209.00	0.00	0.00%	0
May 26	8966.00	8982.00	+16.00	+0.18%	116
Jun 26	8864.00	8864.00	0.00	0.00%	0
Jul 26	9155.00	9155.00	0.00	0.00%	2
Sep 26	9355.00	9355.00	0.00	0.00%	0
Dec 26	9545.00	9545.00	0.00	0.00%	0
Mar 27	9303.00	9303.00	0.00	0.00%	0

Origin	City	Type	Purity	Delivery (Incoterm)	Price (€/kg)	Previous (€/kg)	Update
Ukraine	Kyiv	Black	98%	FCA	0.63	0.63	2026-02-20
Ukraine	Odesa	Black	98%	FCA	0.63	0.63	2026-02-20
Moldova	Rheinfelden Herten (DE)	Black	98%	FCA	0.45	0.45	2026-02-16

Sentiment: Slightly bearish on SAFEX; stable in Black Sea/EU physical markets.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• SAFEX Price Pressure: Sunflower contracts for 2026 trending lower, led by March futures (-1.21%) as risk-off sentiment prevails.
• Oilseeds Complex: Soybean crush in the US at record highs supports meal/oil values, indirectly buoying sunflower meal/oil demand despite local price dips.
• Rapeseed Rally: Euronext rapeseed futures (Aug-26) approach €475/t—farmers consider early sales; price gap between old/new crop at €30–€35/t highlights uncertainty.
• Inventory Signals: Large soya oil stocks and concerns about rising end stocks in the US suggest potential for slower edible oil market in coming weeks.

📊 Oilseeds & Sunflower Fundamentals

• South Africa: SAFEX volume concentrated in near-term (Mar/May); little activity in deferred positions after July 2026, indicating caution or wait-and-see attitude.
• Global Oilseeds: International Grains Council sees 2025/26 global soybean stocks up by 2 Mt to 79 Mt, on higher production/lower consumption. Sunflower faces indirect competition for acreage and price response, particularly with expanding US soy area (USDA Outlook: +3.8M acres in 2025/26).
• Ukraine/Bulgaria: Sunflower seed prices steady; market insulated so far from steep corrections seen in other oilseeds. FCA offers in Ukraine remain at €0.63/kg and in Bulgaria at €0.43/kg (Sofia), suggesting potential floor.

Global Production & Stocks Snapshot

Country	Production Trend	Key Notes
Ukraine	Stable	Consistent export offers, minor volatility
Russia	Steady	Major exporter, no major market disruption reported
EU (Bulgaria, Romania)	Slightly Up	Supports regional supply, competitive FOB offers
South Africa	Stable	SAFEX prices signal mild bearishness
Argentina	Stable	South American crop included in oilseed mix influence

🌦️ Weather & Regional Outlook

• Black Sea: Generally favorable wintersoil moisture; early spring weather will determine planting pace and yield potential (risk: late frost).
• South Africa: Normal summer rainfall supports crop development, but near-term dryness could impact late sunflower stages if prolonged.
• Europe: Mild winter has aided overwintering; producers eye spring conditions for determining yield ceiling.

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor old/new crop SAFEX price spreads—use rallies in new crop for partial hedges or sales.
• Track global oilseed oil stocks (esp. soya/rapeseed); sunflower prices may soften further if crush margins tighten elsewhere.
• Stay alert to planting/harvest weather—unexpected frost or drought in key regions could support rapid price rebounds.
• Physical buyers: current FCA/FOB offers in Black Sea present near-term value; consider incremental purchases ahead of potential spring volatility.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Market	Spot Price	Forecast Range (Next 3 days)	Trend
SAFEX (Mar 26)	9083 ZAR/t	9000 – 9120 ZAR/t	↓ Mild bearish/flat
UA (Kyiv FCA)	0.63 €/kg	0.62 – 0.64 €/kg	→ Steady
BG (Sofia FCA)	0.43 €/kg	0.42 – 0.44 €/kg	→ Steady