China Sunflower Market: Weak Sentiment Persists Despite Sufficient Supply

The Chinese sunflower market currently finds itself at a crossroads of stability and waning demand. Most notably, recent exporter feedback highlights that there have been no significant updates in the sunflower kernel segment, with overall supply reported as more than adequate. Downstream processors have largely completed their pre-holiday stocking ahead of the Spring Festival, and ongoing purchasing is characterized mainly by sporadic, just-in-time replenishment. This cautious sentiment among buyers underscores a pervasive lack of confidence, further reflected in terminal consumption that remains sluggish and unimproved.

Exports generated some headline activity during the recent Dubai Gulf Food Exhibition, but while a few sunflower-related orders were inked, incremental demand was limited and the deals struck hovered around low price points. As such, the fair’s actual impact on domestic sunflower markets remains to be seen. Inventory pressure continues unabated at the downstream stage, with no meaningful improvement in fundamental supply-demand conditions. In sum, absent any notable change in market drivers, expectations point toward a continuation of weak and stable price trends in the runup to the Chinese New Year.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Type	Purity	Organic	Terms	Last Price (€/kg)	Prev. Price (€/kg)	Update Date	Sentiment
Sunflower seeds	CN	Beijing	Black w/ Stripe	98%	No	FOB	1.50	1.48	2026-02-21	Stable/Weak
Sunflower kernels	CN	Beijing	Hulled, Confection	99.95%	No	FOB	1.06	1.05	2026-02-21	Stable/Weak
Sunflower kernels	CN	Beijing	Hulled, Bakery	99.95%	No	FOB	1.07	1.07	2026-02-21	Stable/Weak

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Exporter feedback confirms ample supply of sunflower kernels in the domestic market.
• Downstream processing plants are buying only for essential needs, with most pre-festival restocking completed.
• Cautious approach dominates among buyers, reflecting ongoing weak confidence.
• Terminal (end-user) consumption remains subdued; there is no signal of demand recovery.

📊 Fundamentals

• Dubai Gulf Food Exhibition has concluded, with only limited new export orders signed and at low prices.
• Inventory pressure persists for downstream enterprises—stocks remain elevated.
• Market fundamentals lack momentum; supply-demand remains unbalanced in favor of surplus.

🌦️ Weather/Production Outlook

• No major weather disruptions reported in core Chinese sunflower-growing regions.
• Production for the current cycle remains stable, with no indication of supply constraints.
• External weather data and global crop outlooks show normal patterns for major producing countries (web search supplement).

🌐 Global Comparison

Country	Seeds Price (€/kg)	Kernels Price (€/kg)	Sentiment
China	1.50 (Black Stripe, FOB)	1.06–1.07 (Hulled, FOB)	Weak/Stable
Ukraine	0.56–0.63 (Black, FCA/FOB)	0.55–0.94 (Meal, Bakery FCA)	Stable
Bulgaria	0.43–0.64 (Black/Striped, FCA/FOB)	0.95–1.20 (Bakery/Confection FCA)	Stable
Moldova	0.61 (Black, FCA DE)	1.11 (Bakery FCA DE)	Firm/Rising

📝 Key Market Drivers

• High inventory levels and adequate supply are suppressing upward price momentum.
• Seasonal pre-holiday demand has faded; replenishment is now sporadic and measured.
• Export demand moderate at best, with limited lift from recent international food exhibitions.
• Terminal (retail/foodservice) demand has not recovered meaningfully, keeping market sentiment muted.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect a continued pattern of weak, stable prices through the Chinese Spring Festival.
• Merchants should keep inventory light—do not overstock beyond near-term needs.
• Monitor downstream inventory and consumer demand; any positive surprise in post-festival consumption could change market dynamics.
• Watch for possible late uptick in export interest; any new orders at higher prices could provide some support.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Chinese Markets)

Date	Sunflower Seeds (€/kg, FOB Beijing)	Sunflower Kernels (€/kg, Hulled Confection, FOB Beijing)	Market Bias
Day 1	1.50	1.06	Stable/Weak
Day 2	1.50	1.06	Stable/Weak
Day 3	1.49–1.50	1.05–1.06	Downside risk if demand weakens

Overall, the Chinese sunflower market is facing ample supplies, limited export gains, and a lack of downstream speed-up in procurement. Without a turnaround in demand or significant supply disruption, expect continued price stagnation in the immediate term.