Sunflower Market Faces Crosswinds: SAFEX Price Slide and Global Trade Tensions Shape 2026 Outlook

The sunflower market enters late February 2026 in a state of heightened uncertainty, driven primarily by South African exchange (SAFEX) trends and global oilseed dynamics. SAFEX sunflower contracts have seen a mild but consistent pressure, with notable drops across March, May, and July positions. Underlying this price action are multifaceted factors: regional output prospects, comparative oilseed markets’ volatility, and, critically, the wider context of global trade disputes. While soybeans and rapeseed dominate headlines with U.S. and China trade skirmishes, sunflower oil and seed prices are also indirectly impacted—via spillover effects from macro policy changes, export logistics, and currency shifts.

For market participants, 2026 is shaping up as a year where supply-side prospects in the Black Sea region, and responses to regulatory and tariff shifts, converge to define day-to-day pricing. The market is tracking not only exchange prices in South Africa but also a diverse cross-section of physical market offers, with European and Black Sea sellers adjusting to evolving demand patterns. The interplay between comparative oilseed performance—especially rapeseed, canola, and soybean oils—is keeping sunflower traders vigilant about substitutions in both food and energy sectors. The SAFEX board’s mild downward move mirrors market-wide caution, yet global offers remain resilient, suggesting some regional supply tightness but also a cautious sentiment ahead of the next harvest window. Weather remains a wild card, demanding careful monitoring into March.

📈 Prices

Contract	Close (ZAR/t)	Change	% Change	Volume	Date
Mär 26	9,150	-100	-1.09%	212	23.02.2026
Apr 26	9,209	0	0.00%	0	23.02.2026
Mai 26	9,030	-112	-1.24%	185	23.02.2026
Jun 26	8,864	0	0.00%	0	23.02.2026
Jul 26	9,228	-78	-0.85%	0	23.02.2026
Sep 26	9,440	-16	-0.17%	0	23.02.2026
Dez 26	9,545	0	0.00%	0	23.02.2026
Mär 27	9,303	0	0.00%	0	23.02.2026

🌍 Supply & Demand

• SAFEX sunflower contracts indicate minor but persistent downside as harvest period approaches, reflecting cautious market positioning.
• Global oilseed dynamics (soybeans, rapeseed, canola) have direct spillovers; U.S.–China tariff disputes could shift Chinese demand away from the U.S., indirectly buoying other origin’s seeds and oil products.
• U.S. soybean export inspections notably down year-on-year (-45% week, -32% season), suggesting slack external demand—Sunflower oil might pick up marginal benefit if substitution increases.
• Physical sunflower seed and kernel offers remain robust in Europe, Ukraine, and China. Example: Ukraine sunflower seeds, FCA Odesa, at €0.63/kg, and Chinese sunflower kernels, FOB Beijing, at €1.06–1.13/kg for hulled product.

📊 Fundamentals

• Bullish: Delays in Brazil’s soybean harvest (2025/26) may lead global crushers and refiners to seek alternative feedstocks—some replacement demand for sunflower oil is possible.
• Bearish: U.S. soya/oil exports underperforming, and U.S. court-driven tariff volatility creates uncertainty for all edible oils markets.
• Rapeseed/Canola strength (ICE Winnipeg, Euronext) indirectly provides support as buyers arbitrage between markets.
• Market sentiment: Cautious to mildly bearish on South African SAFEX; neutral to slightly firm on physical EU/Black Sea offers given stable to rising prices.

Origin	Product	Purity	Organic	Delivery	Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price	Date	Location
CN	Sunflower seeds Black with stripe	98%	No	FOB	1.50	1.48	21.02.2026	Beijing
UA	Sunflower seeds Black	98%	No	FCA	0.63	0.63	20.02.2026	Kyiv/Odesa
BG	Sunflower seeds Black	98%	No	FCA	0.43	0.43	16.02.2026	Sofia
CN	Sunflower kernels Hulled, confection	99.95%	No	FOB	1.06	1.05	21.02.2026	Beijing
MD	Sunflower seeds Black	98%	No	FCA	0.61	0.45	20.02.2026	Rheinfelden Herten
BG	Sunflower kernels Hulled, bakery	99.98%	No	FCA	0.95	0.95	16.02.2026	Sofia

☀️ Weather Outlook: Key Growing Regions

• Southern Hemisphere: Brazil’s oilseed and sunflower areas face slow progress and some risk of yield loss due to late rains, mirroring recent soybean delays. Possibility of additional rains could prevent further losses, but some permanent yield drag is likely in southern fields.
• Black Sea & Eastern Europe: Recent conditions stable but dryness in southern Ukraine may deserve close attention in March. No immediate threat, but late winter/spring rains will be critical.
• South Africa: Weather has not been highlighted as a major threat; price pressure is more from policy and macro factors than production scares.

🌐 Production & Stocks: International Comparison

• Ukraine: Consistently the world’s largest exporter of sunflower seeds and oil, current prices (€0.63/kg FCA) suggest stable supply/strong competition.
• Russia: Remains a major player, but recent regulatory moves and currency swings have increased volatility. No dominant stock news for this month.
• EU/Europe: Prices remain robust, with Eastern European origins used as a benchmark for regional tightness or surplus. German and Bulgarian offers up on recent months.
• China: Both a major importer and processor, Chinese sunflower kernel offers (FOB €1.06–1.13/kg) suggest firm demand and some recent price strengthening.

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor further developments in U.S.–China trade policy, as escalations could refocus demand across all edible oils, including sunflower.
• Watch Brazil’s harvest progress; further delays may spur short-covering or substitution, supporting prices in meal and oil components.
• Expect continued short-term price volatility; South African SAFEX is likely to remain under mild pressure absent a weather scare.
• Physical European sunflower markets remain firmer; buyers should secure forward supply where logistics or weather could bite into spring/summer stocks.
• Producers: Consider structured forward sales to mitigate possible further price slide into March if northern hemisphere planting looks favorable.
• End-users: Strategic spot purchases, with staggered forward buying advised before the new crop risk premium emerges.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• SAFEX (South Africa): Mild downside bias likely continues; next three sessions expected in the ZAR 9,000–9,200/t range barring weather event.
• Black Sea (Ukraine): Stable to moderately firmer; physical FCA offers likely to hold near €0.63–0.65/kg given steady demand.
• Europe (EU/BG): Slight upside risk as spot demand for crushing rises; expect offers near current levels with potential for €0.01–0.02/kg uptick.
• China: Weak upward drift expected in kernels as demand picks up pre-spring; price range €1.06–1.13/kg likely to persist.