Raisin Market Under Pressure: Price Dip Amid Export Slowdown, But Outlook Turns Bullish

The global raisin market is navigating a period of heightened uncertainty as export volumes stagnate and sellers lower prices in an attempt to reinvigorate trade. Recent weeks have seen a marked decline in raisin export prices, yet the long-term outlook remains far from bearish. While the impact of the Iran-Iraq conflict has yet to fully reverberate through the market, price increases are already anticipated for the coming week. A surge in diesel prices and higher costs of imported pesticides are poised to raise input prices for raw materials, indicating upward pressure on future raisin costs.

Simultaneously, Iran’s suspension of exports is only a minor factor, as the country has not played a major role in the international raisin trade of late; end-users in vinegar production may feel the brunt more than the dried fruit sector. Notably, the TARİŞ Grape Union’s major investment in vinegar production has expanded capacity and efficiency, ensuring improved monetization of off-grade produce but also supporting raisin exporters and processors in a tightening market. With these complex, interlocking drivers, market participants must weigh immediate price weakness against a looming cost-push dynamic that could reverse the recent downtrend in the weeks ahead.

📈 Prices

Type	Origin	Location	Delivery	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Change (%)	Sentiment
Sultanas, Type 10, Grade A	TR	Malatya	FOB	2.58	3.00	-14.0%	Bearish/Transitional
Sultanas, Type 9, Grade A	TR	Malatya	FOB	2.28	2.50	-8.8%	Bearish
Sultanas, Type 8, Grade A	TR	Malatya	FOB	2.25	2.45	-8.2%	Bearish
Sultanas, Std, No: 9, Grade AA	CN	Dordrecht	FCA	2.20	2.25	-2.2%	Weak
Golden, Grade AA	IN	New Delhi	FOB	2.29	2.25	+1.8%	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Export activity remains subdued; sellers have had to reduce prices to attract buyers.
  • Despite price cuts, trade remains sluggish, indicating hesitant or oversupplied buyers.
• Iran continues to play a minor role in the global raisin trade — recent export halts have limited immediate effect.
• Vinegar producers gained from previous Iranian policies allowing only scrap grapes; recent changes may shift supply dynamics for low-grade fruit.
• Structural investment by TARİŞ Grape Union increases utilization of substandard fruit, potentially lessening surplus pressure on dried raisin markets.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Rising diesel prices are increasing production and logistics costs for Turkish exporters, with downstream effects to come.
• Pesticide import costs are surging, which will feed into farmers’ production costs and eventually push up raw material prices for future crops.
• Current price reductions are tactics to stimulate sales, but upward cost pressures make this unsustainable medium-term.
• Branded vinegar production is becoming more profitable, shifting some market focus away from commodity raisin exports.

☁️ Weather Outlook

• No major adverse weather events reported in key Turkish, Indian, or Californian raisin-producing regions this week (supplementary).
• Deterioration in regional weather, should it occur, would add further support to a rising price outlook already forming due to input costs.

🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison

• Turkey remains the dominant exporter globally, while Iran continues to play a reduced role.
• India’s prices for alternative grades (golden, brown, black) show relative stability, suggesting balanced local dynamics.
• Stock levels outside Iran and Turkey are not showing visible tightness; global supply stability continues, but with looming threats from rising costs.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term: Take advantage of softer prices; buyers should consider building inventories before anticipated price increase next week.
• Producers/Exporters: Reassess margins carefully — current price concessions are likely unsustainable given cost inflation in transport and inputs.
• Medium-term trend is bullish if higher diesel and pesticide costs are realized in prices after current stocks clear.
• Monitor policy shifts in Iran and further capacity investments in vinegar production, as these could impact the allocation of off-grade grapes and raisins.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (Malatya, Turkey)

Date	Expected Price Range (EUR/kg)	Sentiment
Day 1	2.25 – 2.40	Mixed / Mild Bearish
Day 2	2.35 – 2.50	Firming
Day 3	2.50 – 2.60	Bullish Shift Anticipated