Global Sugar Market in Turmoil: War Disruptions Stop Indian Exports

War Disruptions Slow India’s Sugar Exports as Shipping Routes Close

CMB News | Sugar Market | March 2026

India’s sugar export program has slowed dramatically as the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran disrupts major shipping routes and raises transport costs.

Although the Indian government authorised exports of 2 million tonnes of sugar for the current season, shipments have nearly stalled. So far, only around 400,000 tonnes have been exported.

Industry sources now warn that up to 1.5 million tonnes originally intended for export may remain in the domestic market.

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Shipping Disruptions Hit Sugar Trade

The slowdown has been linked to disruptions across major maritime routes connected to the Middle East conflict.

Shipping movements have been affected due to:

• disruptions in the Suez Canal route

• security risks across the Persian Gulf shipping lanes

• sharply rising insurance premiums for cargo vessels

As a result, logistics costs have surged and export shipments have become significantly more difficult to arrange.

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Global Sugar Prices Under Pressure

The conflict is coinciding with weaker international sugar prices.

Current export prices are estimated at roughly:

€40–€41 per quintal (100 kg)

This corresponds to approximately:

€400–€410 per tonne

Last year, export prices were significantly higher at roughly:

€50 per quintal (≈ €500 per tonne)

The combination of:

• rising freight costs

• higher insurance premiums

• declining global sugar prices

has sharply reduced export profitability.

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Domestic Market Could Face Oversupply

India’s sugar production for the current crushing season is estimated at around:

30 million tonnes

If exports remain limited, a large share of the export quota may have to be absorbed by the domestic market.

Analysts warn this could create a significant domestic oversupply, putting additional pressure on already weak sugar prices inside India.

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Calls for Government Intervention

Industry experts are now calling for government action to stabilise the market.

One proposal is to create a strategic buffer stock, which would allow the government to absorb excess supply and support both farmers and sugar mills.

Without intervention, domestic prices may remain under pressure if export flows fail to recover.

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Market Outlook

For global sugar markets, the key question is how long disruptions to shipping routes and energy infrastructure in the Middle East will persist.

If the conflict continues to affect maritime trade, Indian sugar exports may remain limited despite the official export quota.

In the meantime, additional supply remaining in India could influence regional pricing dynamics and add volatility to the global sugar market.