Apricot Market 2026: Turkish Recovery Spurs Hope but Weather Remains Decisive

Turkey’s Malatya region, responsible for around 85% of the world’s dried apricots, is rebounding after a year of severe frost damage. As the new season unfolds, growers and market observers are cautiously optimistic: field surveys suggest healthy budding and a likely improvement in yields. The spring 2025 frost left many orchards devastated, with production and exports slashed dramatically. Since then, determined government relief—USD 240 million in direct and insurance compensation, coupled with agronomic support—helped bring orchards back to productivity. Now, as orchard management practices tighten and trees progress towards flowering, weather once again stands as the pivotal factor for the final harvest outcome.

Apricots from Malatya generally set the global price tone, and last season’s limited supply pushed prices up and caused Turkish export volumes to the EU to plummet by about 60%. There is cautious hope for a more stable season ahead: experts expect 2026 production to recover to 60–80% of normal if weather through flowering remains benign. However, until harvest, global buyers should monitor both price and supply volatility. The current price structure reflects ongoing tightness, but crop prospects are clearly brightening—a key narrative for the months ahead.

📈 Prices

Type	Grade/Spec	Organic	Origin	Location	Delivery	Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price	Last Update
Apricots dried	No. 5, unsulphured	No	Turkey	Malatya	FOB	8.00	8.00	2026-03-10
Apricots dried	No. 4, unsulphured, organic	Yes	Turkey	Ankara	FOB	9.40	9.40	2026-03-10
Apricots dried	No. 4, unsulphured	No	Turkey	Malatya	FOB	8.10	8.10	2026-03-10

Market sentiment: Stable but historically elevated; buyers remain cautious as supply tightness continues from previous year.

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Production: Malatya, Turkey, is entering the budding stage with recovering crop health after the 2025 frost.
• Government Response: ~USD 240 million in support, including direct payments and insurance, aided rapid recovery.
• Supply Outlook: 2026 production expected at 60–80% of normal, but weather during flowering is crucial.
• Exports: 20,007 tonnes (Aug 2025–Feb 2026) vs. 55,479 tonnes previous period; EU exports down 60% to 6,420 tonnes.

📊 Fundamentals

• Crop Conditions: Field reports are optimistic; orchards showing healthy development, attributable to improved management.
• Stock Levels: Not explicitly stated, but last year’s frost led to reduced carryover—2026 inventories likely tight until harvest reality is known.
• Market Structure: Ongoing government/farmer collaboration, direct relief, and training have strengthened sector resilience.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• Key Risk: Weather remains the main factor as trees move from budding to flowering.
• Impact: Another frost or prolonged cold would risk the budding crop and derail current positive forecasts.
• Action: Frequent monitoring is recommended until late spring to assess risk to the flowering and fruit set stages.

🌐 Global Production & Trade

• Turkey: Remains clear global leader; 85% of dried apricot supply sourced from Malatya.
• Export Market: Lower volumes to the EU and globally in 2025/26; shipments highly sensitive to Turkish crop health.
• Importers: European Union remains the main market, but supply constraints mean price fluctuations across import destinations.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• • Maintain cautious procurement strategies—market tightness could persist until 2026 harvest is confirmed.
• • Monitor Malatya weather reports and field assessments closely over the next 6–8 weeks for production risk signals.
• • Consider strategic purchases at current prices if demand is fixed, as the risk of late frost is not yet entirely averted.
• • Track government and local authority updates on crop monitoring for early signals of yield and export recovery.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (FOB Malatya)

Product	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Day 1	Day 2	Day 3
Apricots dried, No. 5, unsulphured	8.00	8.00	8.00	8.00
Apricots dried, No. 4, unsulphured, organic	9.40	9.40	9.40	9.40
Apricots dried, No. 4, unsulphured	8.10	8.10	8.10	8.10

Short-term prices seen as steady but risk skewed to upside if adverse weather emerges. Downside risk is low until the real harvest outlook is revised.

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