Aflatoxin Crisis Disrupts Figs Market: Turkish Exporters Under Pressure

The global dried figs market faces significant turbulence as exporters grapple with ongoing disruptions stemming from stringent quality regulations and food safety concerns. Following a season that appeared promising at the outset, the industry is now weighed down by stock management challenges, persistent export returns, and mounting financial risks. The lingering effects of last year’s rejected shipments due to aflatoxin and ochratoxin contamination remain front and center, with some products destroyed at European borders and others returned, causing extensive losses for Turkish growers and exporters.

As Ramadan approaches—a historically robust demand period—market activity has increased only slightly, failing to offset the broader slowdown. Exporters’ appeals for product returns instead of destruction highlight the stark financial realities and strategic decisions shaping the new marketing season. Market participants, already wary after substantial setbacks, are forced to revise their risk mitigation strategies, balancing the need for food safety with the imperative to maintain access to lucrative European and global markets. In this climate, dried fig producers are entering the new season with caution and urgency, as supply chain pressures and regulatory constraints reshape the outlook for the months ahead.

📈 Prices & Market Overview

Type	Grade	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Last Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Update Date	Sentiment	Offer Link
Figs dried	No: 7, lerida	TR	MALATYA	FOB	7.7	7.7	2026-01-29	Stable	Offer
Figs dried	No: 6, natural	TR	MALATYA	FOB	7.9	7.9	2026-01-29	Stable	Offer
Figs dried	No: 5, natural	TR	MALATYA	FOB	8.3	8.3	2026-01-29	Stable	Offer

Sentiment: Cautious stability as stock levels and export setbacks limit price movement.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Supply: Stocks are dwindling, but remain sufficient to meet steady demand through Ramadan. Export disruptions have prevented full stock liquidation.
• Demand: Exports to traditional markets continue, but the pace has not increased significantly despite seasonal demand uptick during Ramadan. Some product quality concerns are depressing demand in strict-regulation regions (e.g., EU).

📊 Market Fundamentals & Key Insights

• Export Returns & Product Losses: Rejections at EU borders due to aflatoxin/ochratoxin have resulted in both destruction of shipment and financial hardship for Turkish exporters.
• Quality Control Concerns: Ongoing risks prompt exporters and producers to take extra precautions, increasing processing and compliance costs.
• Business Appeals: Calls to allow the return of rejected products (instead of destruction) would reduce overall financial losses, but policy changes remain uncertain.
• Producer Sentiment: Optimism from early-season yields has been dampened by regulatory and trade risks, prompting more cautious new-season planning.

⛅ Weather & Regional Outlook

• Mild winter conditions reported in Malatya and broader Turkish fig-growing regions support orchard health but also risk early bud development, potentially increasing vulnerability to late frosts.
• No severe weather events reported as of end-January 2026.

Weather is currently supportive for tree health, but crop prospects for the new season depend on early spring conditions.

🌐 Global Trade & Inventory Snapshots

• Turkey: Leading global exporter; strong stocks at season start now diminish due to ongoing exports and border losses.
• EU: Largest fig import region, tightening controls on food safety and responsible for bulk of rejections/destructions.
• Other Markets: Redirected product flows as sellers seek new buyers beyond the EU.

💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Maintain rigorous quality controls to avoid export returns, especially for EU-bound shipments.
• Monitor regulatory changes in major destinations—be prepared to redirect shipments if barriers rise.
• Secure logistics early for Ramadan-driven orders, as market activity could pick up modestly.
• Assess reprocessing and alternative sales channels for products at risk of return.
• Producers should review insurance and risk management amid ongoing uncertainty.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Date	Type/Grade	Location	Forecast Price (EUR/kg)
2026-01-30	Figs dried no: 5 natural	MALATYA (FOB)	8.3
2026-01-31	Figs dried no: 5 natural	MALATYA (FOB)	8.3
2026-02-01	Figs dried no: 5 natural	MALATYA (FOB)	8.3

Stable prices are expected as tight supply is offset by export complications and subdued demand.