Almond Kernels Hold Firm as Spain and US Track Parallel Price Floors

Almond kernel prices in Spain and the US are broadly stable this week, with only modest upward bias in Spanish Marcona and Guara types while US Carmel remains flat. Tight but adequate global supply and steady export demand are keeping a floor under prices, but no clear catalyst has yet emerged for a strong breakout in either direction. The almond market enters mid‑September with new‑crop Spanish kernels pricing slightly above interior Spanish cash references, and US kernels holding a small premium on perceived quality and strong export programs. Spanish wholesale quotes from key exchanges such as Albacete and Murcia show Marcona and Guara up a few euro cents versus early September, signalling a cautiously firmer tone that aligns with offered FOB levels in Madrid. In the US, California’s 2026/27 crop opened with firm prices after last season’s 26% rise and solid new‑crop commitments, suggesting growers are reluctant sellers at current levels.

Prices

Spanish FOB almond kernel offers (Madrid) for key varieties are currently assessed around:

Spanish spot references from lonjas show Marcona mostly in the mid‑EUR 6/kg range and Guara around EUR 5.4–5.6/kg, broadly consistent with export‑oriented FOB levels and confirming a stable domestic baseline. US market commentary continues to highlight firm pricing versus last year following cumulative increases over the 2025/26 season.

Supply & Demand

California remains the dominant global supplier. For 2025/26, industry reports show shipments only marginally lower year on year (around −0.6%), but prices rose sharply as demand absorbed available supply and reduced uncertainty. New‑crop 2026/27 opened with over 300 million lbs in forward commitments, pointing to solid export interest from key destinations such as Europe and India.

Spanish production is structurally smaller but strategically important for premium varieties like Marcona and Valencia. Recent European balance sheet estimates still envisage Spanish crops around 105,000 tonnes, steady year on year, helping maintain regional availability. Domestic Spanish demand for confectionery and snacking, together with nearby EU buyers, is absorbing supply at current levels, with only modest price sensitivity visible so far in lonja quotations.

Weather & Crop Conditions (ES, US)

In Spain, official drought monitoring continues to highlight rainfall deficits and moderate to severe drought pockets across much of the Mediterranean basin as of mid‑summer, especially in southern and eastern regions where almonds are concentrated. While some late spring rains relieved stress, reservoirs and soil moisture remain below average, keeping irrigation demand high and production risks skewed modestly to the downside for rain‑fed orchards.

In California, no major statewide weather shock has been reported over the last few days. Current conditions during harvest are seasonally warm and predominantly dry, which is favourable for shaking and drying but keeps water management costs elevated after earlier heat episodes in the season. Market participants continue to watch for any localized harvest disruptions that could tighten nearby availability, though none have yet emerged as price‑moving events this week.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Inventory & carry‑in: Global carry‑over stocks, particularly in California, remain significant but manageable. Recent industry data imply that faster shipments in late 2025/26 have prevented a burdensome overhang, supporting today’s firm but not explosive price environment.
• Demand: Stable kernel use in Europe and strong festival‑driven demand from India and parts of Asia underpin forward buying interest in US Nonpareil and Carmel. Premium Spanish Marcona maintains a quality premium into bakery, chocolate and gourmet snack segments, limiting downside even if broader nut demand softens.
• Policy & risk management (Spain): Recent updates to Spain’s agricultural insurance framework for tree nuts underline concerns over climate‑related yield volatility and signal that growers are increasingly focused on risk coverage rather than rapid area expansion. This structurally caps medium‑term supply growth.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day View

• Short‑term bias (3–5 days): With no fresh data shocks expected before the next US position updates and Spanish lonja sessions showing only incremental moves, near‑term price action for kernels in both Spain and the US is likely to stay range‑bound with a mild upward skew for premium grades.
• Buy‑side strategy: European and Mediterranean buyers with Q4–Q1 coverage gaps may consider scaling into Spanish Marcona and Valencia at current levels, using any minor dips in lonja references as an opportunity, while layering small volumes of US Carmel for diversification.
• Sell‑side strategy: Growers and origin shippers in Spain and California may favour patient, staggered sales, protecting downside with minimum price structures rather than aggressive forward selling given the supportive demand outlook and ongoing weather‑related uncertainties.

3‑day directional indication (EUR terms)

• Spain (FOB Madrid kernels): Marcona, Valencia, Guara – stable to +0.02–0.05 EUR/kg, closely tracking small upward adjustments in local lonjas.
• US (FAS/FOB California kernels, converted to EUR): Carmel and Nonpareil – broadly steady, with any moves likely limited to within ±0.03 EUR/kg absent new shipment or weather surprises.