Almond kernels in India: cautious firmness as importer selling eases
California almond kernels in India edge higher as importer selling eases. Prices look rangebound near term, with pre-festive stockbuilding the key upside risk.
Prices & spreads
California almond kernel at Delhi’s wholesale market has risen by around $0.21/kg, to roughly $9.12–9.43/kg, after a period of softening as earlier imports cleared into retail and gift-pack channels. At today’s exchange rates this implies a working band near €8.40–8.70/kg for kernels in the Delhi wholesale hub, still below recent US and Spanish offer levels into Europe.
The Delhi kernel uptick is therefore more a local adjustment within a globally still-competitive price environment. FOB and FAS offers from US and Spanish origins have been broadly stable in recent weeks, signalling that the latest move in India is driven more by local selling patterns than by a structural shift in international benchmarks.
Supply, demand & seasonal pattern
India is the world’s largest almond consumer and a key destination for California-origin kernels. The current Indian summer is typically a slower consumption period as buyers pivot toward cooling seasonal foods, leaving almond demand well below the Q4–Q1 peak. Mid-range bakery, confectionery and Ayurvedic preparation buyers, along with the gift-pack segment, form the deepest demand base, yet all three channels are presently lifting less than in the December–March high season.
Stockists in Delhi’s Khari Baoli market report adequate carryover and no urgency to restock at higher levels. The latest firmness stems from importers temporarily curbing selling after pushing volume into retail and gifting pipelines in previous weeks. This pause appears linked to a transitional window before the pre-festive build, rather than any hard evidence of tightening global supply. As a result, the market tone is described as cautiously firm, with upside still conditional on either renewed stocking interest or an external cost shock.
Fundamentals & drivers
- Importer behaviour: The key driver of this week’s firmness is supply restraint by importers after several soft sessions, which has supported bids without triggering aggressive stockist buying.
- Inventory situation: Delhi stockists remain well-supplied with carryover, limiting the potential for a sharp price spike unless demand accelerates earlier than usual.
- Seasonal demand cycle: Pre-festive stockbuilding by processors and gift-pack manufacturers typically starts from late June onwards. Until then, physical offtake is likely to stay subdued relative to peak-season norms.
- Global context: Internationally, almond prices have recently been underpinned by expectations of a smaller California crop and some quality issues in alternative origins, but these factors are not yet translating into a sustained rally in Indian kernels, where physical pull-through remains modest.
Weather & crop outlook (brief)
Weather across California’s almond belt is currently within normal seasonal ranges, with no major near-term stress signals reported for the developing 2026 crop. Industry position data up to March indicate comfortable global availability of kernels, even as expectations for a slightly smaller California harvest support a more balanced supply picture ahead. In India, pre-monsoon heat is intense across North India, reinforcing the usual seasonal lull in nut consumption and favouring lighter, cooling foods in household diets.
Short-term forecast (2–4 weeks)
Given adequate inventories, muted end-use demand and importer-led firmness, California almond kernel prices in India are likely to trade in a relatively narrow band over the next two to four weeks. The most probable range for California-origin kernels in Delhi is around $9.00–9.50/kg, equivalent to roughly €8.30–8.80/kg at current FX levels. Any break above this corridor before late June would likely require either a sudden import-cost spike or an earlier-than-expected start to festive-cycle coverage.
- Base case: Sideways, cautiously firm prices in India, with small day-to-day fluctuations driven by local selling decisions.
- Upside risk: Faster rupee depreciation or bullish global crop news that lifts CNF values into India before demand fully revives.
- Downside risk: Renewed importer selling if retail and gifting channels fail to absorb existing stocks at current prices.
Trading outlook & recommendations
- Importers into India: Use the current modest firmness to liquidate remaining old stocks at slightly better levels, while avoiding aggressive fresh coverage until clearer signals emerge from pre-festive demand (likely from late June).
- Indian processors & gift-packers: Plan staged buying from late June onwards, targeting the lower half of the projected €8.30–8.80/kg Delhi-equivalent band where possible, rather than chasing short-lived spikes triggered by temporary supply restraint.
- European buyers of US/ES kernels: With FAS/FOB offers around €5.5–6.6/kg for conventional kernels and higher for premium and organic lines, consider covering part of Q3–Q4 needs now, while retaining flexibility in case Indian demand remains slow and caps global upside.
3-day directional view (key hubs)
- Delhi wholesale kernels (India): Steady to slightly firm in the next three days, as importer restraint persists but stockist appetite stays measured.
- US export offers (FAS/FOB): Broadly stable in EUR terms, with only marginal moves expected absent fresh crop or currency news.
- Spanish kernels (FOB Mediterranean): Stable; competitive versus US on some industrial grades, but unlikely to drive sharp near-term shifts in India-focused trade flows.