Almond Kernels Find a Floor as Demand Gradually Rebuilds

Almond kernel prices are stabilising after a recent correction, with traders seeing limited downside as food-industry demand holds and fresh buying emerges on dips. Comfortable imported stocks are still weighing on values, but improved interest from wholesalers and retailers is helping the market form a floor. After several weeks of softer prices driven by moderate buying and ample availability of imported stocks, the almond kernel market is now transitioning into a consolidation phase. Current levels are attracting value-focused demand from confectionery, bakery and dry fruit users, who see present prices as an opportunity to rebuild coverage. Global indicators from key terminals and trade hubs point to a broadly balanced supply-demand backdrop, suggesting that any further declines from here may be shallow and short-lived. Weather and crop expectations in major origins will remain the main medium-term risk factors.

Prices & Recent Trend

Almond kernels are currently quoted around EUR 9.45–9.55/kg in major wholesale markets (converted from about USD 10.30–10.40/kg), reflecting a recent downward adjustment but no sharp sell-off. The correction has been sufficient to draw renewed interest from trade buyers, without triggering distress selling on the supply side.

Export offers for standard U.S. kernels remain broadly steady: recent assessments for Carmel SSR grades 18/20 and 20/22 cluster around EUR 6.50–6.60/kg FAS Washington D.C., essentially flat over the second half of May. European-origin almonds (Spanish Valencia and Guara types) are indicated mostly in the EUR 5.40–5.95/kg FOB Madrid range, while premium Marcona and organic Nonpareil lots command significant premiums, reaching above EUR 8.50/kg and above EUR 11.00/kg respectively.

Supply & Demand Balance

Supplies in key consuming hubs are described as comfortable, with imported stocks readily available. This has kept buying largely hand-to-mouth in recent weeks, contributing to the observed price softness. At the same time, there is no sign of a surplus severe enough to force aggressive discounting, which supports the idea of a stabilising market rather than a prolonged downturn.

On the demand side, usage from confectionery, bakery and dry-fruit packers remains steady, providing a solid structural floor. Market participants note that the recent slide in prices has triggered fresh interest from wholesalers and retailers, particularly for mid-range grades where current levels improve margins in value-added products. Global trade intelligence also highlights India and Europe as continuing to absorb substantial volumes of kernels for food use, even if some seasonal demand lull is visible in hotter climates.

Fundamentals & External Drivers

Industry experts broadly expect the almond market to stabilise over the coming weeks, with a realistic prospect of a modest recovery if consumer demand improves from current levels. Recent position and shipment data from California point to a sector that has adjusted acreage and output closer to sustainable demand growth, reducing the risk of persistent oversupply. This underpins the perception that the latest correction is more of a technical reset than the start of a deep bear phase.

Official wholesale reports from U.S. terminal markets indicate that almond offerings are described as light rather than burdensome, and prices for good-quality California nuts remain firm relative to historical lows. In parallel, processed-ingredient demand in snacks, bars, plant-based dairy alternatives and confectionery supports kernel usage, even as buyers keep tight cost discipline. Overall, fundamentals favour a range-bound market with a gently firming bias rather than either a sharp rally or collapse.

Weather & Crop Outlook

Weather in major producing regions currently does not indicate any acute stress that would immediately tighten supply, but markets remain sensitive to potential heat waves or water constraints in California and the Mediterranean. Recent reports show normal to slightly variable conditions, and with the 2026 California crop forecast only slightly below last season, trade expectations point to broadly adequate availability for the year.

Any emerging concerns around pollination success, summer heat or irrigation limits could quickly shift sentiment, particularly if they coincide with stronger end-user demand in the second half of the year. For now, weather is viewed as a watch factor rather than an immediate price driver.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Market direction (1–4 weeks): Sideways to slightly firmer. Prices appear to be forming a floor after the recent correction, with limited additional downside expected if demand remains steady.
• For buyers: Consider layering in coverage at current levels, especially for standard U.S. and Spanish grades, as present prices are attractive relative to recent months and downside looks contained.
• For sellers: Focus on quality differentiation (origin, grade, organic) to preserve premiums and avoid overcommitting volumes at current levels, given the potential for a modest recovery if demand improves.
• Risk factors to watch: Any negative weather news in California or Spain, sharper-than-expected demand slowdown in key markets, or abrupt shifts in currency and freight costs.

3-Day Regional Price Indications (Directional)

• U.S. export hub (FAS Washington D.C.): Carmel SSR kernels around EUR 6.50–6.60/kg, expected to remain broadly steady in the next 3 days.
• Spain (FOB Madrid): Mainstream Valencia and Guara kernels holding near EUR 5.40–5.95/kg; premium Marcona stable with a slight upward bias on limited top-quality offers.
• Key wholesale consuming markets: Almond kernels near EUR 9.50/kg equivalent are likely to trade in a narrow band, with small firming possible if current fresh buying momentum persists.