Almond Markets Steady but Weather Risk Builds in US and Spain

Almond prices in both Spain and the US are broadly stable week-on-week, with slight firmness in Spanish Marcona and Guara types while US Carmel and Nonpareil hold flat in a balanced market. Weather is seasonally warm in California and Spain without immediate stress, but an approaching mid‑June heat build‑up in California could become the next key risk factor. Physical almond markets in Spain remain calm, with provincial exchanges such as Albacete showing flat Marcona and Guara quotations into early June, supporting the view of a sideways domestic market. Spanish export‑oriented FOB offers for Marcona and Valencia types are stable to marginally firmer versus late May, while US origin kernel prices (Carmel SSR and organic Nonpareil) in FAS/FOB terms are unchanged over the last week. California’s crop and shipment data from industry reports published in May suggest comfortable supply, but with careful attention now shifting toward summer weather and potential heat episodes in the Central Valley.

Prices & Spreads

All prices below in EUR/kg, converted approximately from current commercial indications.

Spanish domestic benchmarks from Albacete’s exchange show Marcona at roughly 6.10 EUR/kg and Guara at 5.20 EUR/kg on 4 June, unchanged from late May and broadly consistent with export‑oriented offers, indicating a well‑anchored internal market.

Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

California remains the dominant global supplier. The Almond Board’s latest Global Update (May 2026) highlights continued strong export flows and regulatory engagement but no major disruption to trade routes, implying that logistics are functioning normally and keeping export availability reliable. Independent crop estimates released in May point to a normal‑to‑slightly‑better 2026 crop after an early but generally favorable bloom, reinforcing the notion of adequate supply into the 2026/27 marketing year.

On the demand side, EU nut markets remain firm but not overheated. Competing tree nuts such as hazelnuts in Spain are trading in a similar 5.8–10.8 EUR/kg wholesale range, which caps upside for almonds as buyers have alternatives at comparable price points. Retail and food‑industry demand is benefiting from stable consumer prices and steady promotional activity, while the absence of fresh trade policy shocks keeps forward demand planning largely unchanged.

Weather Watch: US vs Spain

California (US): Extended forecasts for the Central Valley into mid‑June indicate seasonally hot, dry conditions, with online meteorological discussions flagging an increasing probability of a significant heat wave around the week of 14 June, with temperatures locally above 43°C (110°F) in parts of the San Joaquin and Sacramento Valleys. For now, this remains within normal summer risk parameters, but a prolonged extreme heat spell later in June could stress non‑irrigated or water‑constrained orchards and would be mildly supportive for prices if confirmed.

Spain (ES): Seven‑day forecasts for key northern and northeastern producing areas such as Huesca province (Jaca) show typical early‑summer patterns: warm days, cooler nights and only scattered showers, with no late frost or widespread storm risk flagged in the latest outlooks. Southern areas (Andalusia, Murcia) are entering their usual dry season; no acute heat or drought event beyond seasonal norms has emerged in the last few days, keeping Spanish crop expectations stable and limiting immediate weather‑driven price spikes.

Market Drivers & Fundamentals

• Stable Spanish benchmarks: Repeatedly unchanged quotations for Marcona and Guara across late May and early June at Albacete confirm a sideways domestic price structure and adequate local supply.
• Comfortable global supply: Recent Almond Board position data (April report released 12 May) show continued strong shipments and a still‑sizeable carry‑over, limiting the probability of a near‑term global shortage.
• Macro & FX backdrop: No fresh macro shock has hit nut demand in the last few days. With the EUR relatively stable against the USD over early June, US origin almonds remain competitively priced into the EU, helping cap Spanish domestic offers.
• Relative value vs other nuts: Hazelnut and other nut prices in Spain remain in a comparable band, which tempers further upward moves in almonds as industrial buyers can blend or substitute where quality permits.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• For buyers (roasters, confectionery, packers): Use current stability to extend coverage modestly into Q3, particularly for high‑quality Marcona and organic Nonpareil, which trade at a premium but show no immediate upward pressure. Prioritise flexible delivery windows to react if California heat risk escalates.
• For Spanish growers & cooperatives: With domestic Marcona and Guara benchmarks flat and export parity aligned, holding limited additional volumes is reasonable, but aggressive price‑lifting is not yet justified without clearer weather‑driven supply threats.
• For traders: Maintain a neutral‑to‑slightly‑long bias in nearby positions, focusing on origin spreads (US vs ES) rather than outright price bets. Watch mid‑June Central Valley temperature forecasts closely; any confirmation of prolonged extreme heat could warrant adding length or tightening offers.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Direction)

• Spain (ES, FOB Madrid – Marcona/Valencia/Guara): Prices seen flat over the next three days, with a narrow ±0.5% band as domestic lonja references and export offers remain stable.
• United States (US, FAS/FOB – Carmel, Nonpareil): Prices expected to remain sideways for the coming three days, with only minor intra‑day volatility driven by FX moves and routine spot inquiries; no fundamental catalyst for a break‑out is visible in very short term weather or shipment news.