Almonds find new momentum as Australian exports surge to China

Australian almonds are regaining momentum after a weak season start, with April shipments rebounding sharply and Chinese demand firmly in the lead. Strong export flows and resilient in‑shell movement offset regional softness in the Middle East, tightening the outlook for exportable supply despite challenging harvest conditions. Global almond prices in Europe and the US remain broadly steady in June, but the renewed pull from Asia-Pacific – led by China and Southeast Asia – is underpinning a mildly bullish tone. Currency moves between the Australian dollar and the US dollar, as well as a slightly smaller forecast California crop, will be decisive for grower returns and price direction into Q3.

Prices

Spot almond kernel offers converted to EUR point to a firm, sideways market. US Nonpareil organic kernels around Washington D.C. are roughly EUR 8.50–8.60/kg FOB equivalent, while standard US Carmel SSR grades trade closer to EUR 6.10–6.20/kg FAS. Spanish Marcona kernels in Madrid range around EUR 6.00–8.00/kg FOB depending on size and grade, with Guara and Valencia types mostly between EUR 5.10 and 6.70/kg.

Over the past three weeks, quoted prices in both US and Spanish origins have been remarkably stable, with only marginal adjustments of a few euro cents per kilo. This stability, despite stronger Australian shipment data, suggests that ample global supply from California and Europe is currently absorbing the improved Asia-Pacific demand, keeping any upside in check for now.

Supply & Demand

Australian almond shipments recovered strongly in April after a slow start to the new selling season. Industry shipments were 11% higher than last season’s record April volume, bringing total movement in the first two months of the season to within 2.9% of last year’s level. Exports rose 13% year-on-year in April, while domestic sales increased by 4%, signalling broad-based demand resilience.

China is the key demand driver, with April shipments up 42% year-on-year and up 33% over the first two months of the season. In-shell shipments performed particularly well, rising 30% compared with last year despite challenging harvest conditions. In contrast, shipments to the Middle East plunged by 85%, but this slack was largely absorbed by stronger buying across Asia-Pacific, with Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand and New Zealand all booking higher volumes than a year ago.

Against this backdrop, California – still the dominant global supplier – is facing a slightly smaller 2026 crop, which could limit downside risk for prices into the new marketing year. At the same time, Australia’s currency remains a crucial factor: fluctuations in the AUD/USD exchange rate directly influence export competitiveness and grower returns, especially in price-sensitive Asian markets.

Fundamentals & Weather

The combination of record-level Australian April exports and robust Chinese buying points to tightening availability of premium in-shell and kernel grades from Australia in coming months. Stronger demand in Southeast Asia and New Zealand further shifts the regional balance toward Asia-Pacific, while the sharp decline in Middle Eastern offtake underscores ongoing geopolitical and macro uncertainties in that region.

Weather risks for the Southern Hemisphere crop are now largely behind the market, but the recent challenging harvest conditions in Australia highlight underlying vulnerability. For the Northern Hemisphere, attention turns to California’s summer heat and water availability during nut fill; early indications suggest no acute stress events so far, but any extreme heat or irrigation constraints in July–August would quickly translate into quality and yield concerns.

On the demand side, nut consumption continues to benefit from healthy-snacking trends, although price-sensitive consumers in some emerging markets are trading down to cheaper nuts or mixed products. Still, the recent rebound in Australian exports to China and Asia-Pacific suggests that industrial demand – particularly for confectionery and bakery – remains firm.

3–6 Month Outlook & Trading Guidance

Overall, the almond market appears mildly constructive into Q3, with Australian shipment strength and a slightly smaller California crop counterbalanced by comfortable global inventories. Currency dynamics and China’s sustained appetite for in-shell will likely determine whether prices can break meaningfully higher from current ranges.

• Importers in Asia-Pacific: Consider covering a higher share of Q3–Q4 needs now, especially for Australian in-shell and premium kernels, given strong Chinese competition and limited downside from present EUR price levels.
• European buyers: Maintain a staggered purchasing strategy; current Spanish and US offers in EUR look fair, but avoid over-committing ahead of clearer confirmation on California yield and summer weather.
• Producers & exporters (Australia): Use recent price stability to lock in forward sales where AUD strength could erode margins; closely monitor AUD/USD and basis against California offers into China and Southeast Asia.

Short-Term (3‑Day) Directional Outlook

• US kernels (Carmel, Nonpareil, EUR basis): Sideways to slightly firmer, with buyers showing selective interest but no panic coverage.
• Spanish kernels (Marcona, Guara, Valencia): Mostly steady; minor upward bias for specialty grades on limited spot availability.
• Australian export parity (Asia-bound in-shell): Firm tone supported by strong Chinese and Southeast Asian demand, but no immediate sharp price spikes expected.