Almond Prices Hold Firm as Export Pull and Smaller Crop Tighten Balance

Almond prices are holding firm at elevated levels as California faces a tighter supply balance and strong export pull, while kernels trade in a narrow, supported range. Limited selling pressure and steady demand are preventing any meaningful price correction in the near term. The almond market is entering the 2026/27 season with firmer fundamentals after several years of oversupply. California whole almonds are quoted around EUR 317–323 per 40 kg, with kernels near EUR 11.3–12.2/kg, signaling a market that has moved well above prior lows but is now consolidating. Recent position reports point to strong early-season shipments, particularly into India and key export destinations, against a smaller California crop and lower carryover stocks. European origin kernels from Spain are broadly stable, confirming a globally firmer price floor rather than a short-lived spike.

Prices

California almonds are described as “held firm” around EUR 317.49–322.79 per 40 kg (roughly EUR 7.90–8.10/kg in-shell equivalent), while almond kernels trade in a supported band of approximately EUR 11.32–12.17/kg. This underlines a market that has repriced higher but is now relatively stable rather than accelerating sharply.

Recent export-terminal indications in the U.S. also show solid wholesale levels, with California Peerless quoted around USD 100–207 per package at major U.S. markets, consistent with a firm underlying tone rather than a soft or distressed market.

Supply & Demand

California remains the key driver, supplying roughly three-quarters of global production, and current industry commentary points to a smaller 2026 crop and reduced carryover stocks versus prior years. Strong early-season export demand is reinforcing this tighter balance, with August shipments reportedly up more than 20% year-on-year and export volumes over 30% higher, led by India.

Recent market reports from handlers and industry groups underline that shipments have exceeded prior-year levels in most of the last several months, drawing down inventories that once weighed heavily on prices. Buyers who deferred coverage in hopes of lower prices are now returning to the market, providing additional short-term support as they adjust to the new price floor.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentally, the market has transitioned from surplus to a more balanced, slightly tight structure. A smaller 2026 California crop (industry expectations around 2.5–2.75 billion lbs) and reduced ending stocks come on top of a 2025/26 season that already saw benchmark prices rise by more than 25%. This helps explain why current spot quotes for whole almonds and kernels remain firm.

Weather in California’s Central Valley is seasonally favorable for harvest completion, with no major disruptive events reported in recent days. Position reports for August show robust shipments, while total commitments (sold but not yet shipped) remain substantial, indicating that a significant portion of the 2026/27 crop is already tied up. In Europe, Spanish supply is steady, with Marcona and Valencia kernel prices flat over recent weeks, suggesting no local surplus capable of materially undercutting California-origin product.

Market & Trading Outlook

Over the coming weeks, prices are likely to remain underpinned by strong export demand and the tighter California balance sheet. Upside spikes could occur if further position reports confirm sustained export strength or if any harvest or logistics disruptions arise, but the base case is a firm, sideways market at current elevated levels.

• Importers / Roasters: Consider covering Q4 2026–Q1 2027 needs incrementally at current levels; downside appears limited near term given smaller crop and strong shipments, but avoid over-committing if demand visibility is weak.
• Producers / Handlers: Maintain disciplined sales; with kernels and whole almonds trading firmly and commitments high, there is little incentive to discount aggressively unless new bearish data emerge.
• Industrial Users / Retailers: Lock in prices on core specifications (Carmel SSR, Nonpareil 27/30, key Spanish grades) on a rolling basis; consider modest hedging for 2027 coverage if subsequent crop forecasts confirm ongoing tightness.

3-Day Regional Price Indication (Direction)

• US (FAS/FOB, Washington D.C., California kernels in EUR): Sideways to slightly firm; Carmel SSR around EUR 6.7/kg, Nonpareil organic near EUR 9.3–9.4/kg.
• Spain (FOB Madrid, Marcona/Valencia kernels in EUR): Stable; narrow ranges with mild upward bias if California quotes edge higher.
• Wholesale terminal markets (US, in EUR-equivalent): Firm tone across major cities with limited offerings; no immediate sign of easing.