Almond Rally Pauses as Indian Demand Softens but Global Supply Stays Tight

Indian almond kernel prices are easing after a sharp rally, as post-Diwali demand cools and stockholders take profits. Short-term pressure contrasts with structurally tighter global supply, with lower California and Australian crop expectations and thinner old-crop inventories likely to underpin values once the current correction runs its course. After a festive-driven surge, India’s spot market is digesting record imports and softer consumer offtake, triggering selling by holders and a pullback in kernel prices. At the same time, international fundamentals are tightening: California’s crop potential is being revised down towards the mid‑2.6 billion‑pound range and Australia has just confirmed a record, but already highly committed, crop. This juxtaposition of weak near-term Indian buying and structurally constrained global supply sets the stage for elevated volatility, selective downside for nearby positions and renewed upside risk further into 2027.

Prices

International reference prices show mild softening in early November, echoing the profit-taking seen in India. U.S. Carmel SSR almond kernels (18/20) FAS Washington D.C. eased to EUR 6.65/kg from EUR 6.70/kg, while Carmel SSR 20/22 stands at EUR 6.70/kg, down from EUR 6.74/kg. Organic Nonpareil 27/30 FOB Washington D.C. is quoted at EUR 9.30/kg versus EUR 9.35/kg previously.

In Spain, FOB Madrid prices also reflect modest correction: Marcona 12/14 is indicated at EUR 6.61/kg (from EUR 6.66/kg), Valencia 12/14 at EUR 7.25/kg (from EUR 7.30/kg) and Guara 12/14 MMS at EUR 5.90/kg (from EUR 5.95/kg). Organic Spanish Nonpareil 27/30 has edged down to EUR 11.45/kg from EUR 11.50/kg. Overall, the complex is consolidating after a strong upward move rather than entering a deep bearish phase.

Supply & Demand

In India, traders report that the recent downturn in kernel prices follows heavy selling by stockholders and a natural cooling of consumer demand after Diwali. Record import arrivals into Indian ports in recent months have added to near-term availability, increasing bargaining power for buyers just as festival buying fades. Wholesale mandi data from Mumbai shows high but stabilising price ranges, suggesting the market is moving from scarcity to better supplied conditions in the short run.

Globally, however, the supply outlook is less comfortable. California’s 2026 crop is increasingly expected around 2.6 billion pounds, below earlier projections near 3.15 billion pounds cited earlier in the season, as smaller kernel sizes and weaker pollinizer yields weigh on total production. Industry analyses point to crop potential in roughly the 2.56–2.62 billion‑pound range, slightly below last year and well under the boom years, while old-crop inventories have also declined.

Australia has finalized a record 2026 crop intake of about 178,000 tonnes, up strongly year-on-year, but export data indicates vigorous global demand, led by India where sales are up around 60% season to date. Much of this volume is already marketed, limiting the buffer this new supply can provide if Northern Hemisphere crops disappoint again.

Fundamentals

The core fundamental tension is between softer near-term demand and structurally tighter global supply. In India, subdued post-festive consumer purchases and elevated inventories in the hands of stockists are weighing on prices and encouraging profit-taking. Yet importers are hesitant to aggressively sell forward while they await updated Californian crop and shipment data, aware that a smaller U.S. and Australian crop combination could tighten international availability later in the season.

California’s lower yield and smaller kernel size profile, together with reduced old-crop carryover, imply a leaner exportable surplus even if current shipment pace remains solid. Export demand into India and other key destinations was strong through September and October, contributing to the earlier price rally. As a result, the market’s cushion against future weather or logistical shocks is thinner than in recent years, underpinning a higher volatility regime.

Weather & Crop Outlook

The California Central Valley has completed harvest under generally favorable conditions, and attention is shifting to winter chill and rainfall, both critical for 2027 yield potential. Current outlooks highlight El Niño–linked uncertainty for winter precipitation, with industry participants monitoring whether storms will replenish reservoirs without causing orchard flooding.

In Australia, the record 2026 crop was achieved despite wet harvest challenges, suggesting orchards remain productive but sensitive to weather swings. Looking ahead, any renewed drought pressure could cap further supply growth just as global demand, particularly from India and the Middle East, remains robust.

Forecast & Trading Outlook

In the near term, almond prices are likely to remain volatile, with a soft bias in Indian kernels as post-Diwali demand normalises and imported volumes clear the pipeline. However, structurally lower Californian and Australian crop expectations versus earlier estimates, alongside reduced old-crop inventories, should offer medium-term support and limit downside once the current correction stabilises.

• Importers in India: Consider opportunistic coverage on further dips, but stagger purchases over the coming weeks while monitoring new Californian position and shipment reports.
• Growers and handlers: Avoid aggressive discounting; focus on managing inventory length into Q1 2027, as tighter global supply could reassert upward pressure after the post-festive lull.
• Industrial buyers in Europe: Use the recent EUR‑denominated easing (e.g. U.S. Carmel SSR around EUR 6.65–6.70/kg FAS and Spanish Valencia 12/14 near EUR 7.25/kg FOB) to extend cover modestly into mid‑2027, while leaving some flexibility for further corrections.

3‑Day Price Indication

• U.S. origins (FAS/FOB Washington D.C.): Sideways to slightly softer, with most business repeating around current ranges (EUR 6.65–6.70/kg for main conventional kernels, EUR 9.30/kg for organic Nonpareil).
• Spanish origins (FOB Madrid): Mildly weak tone but limited further downside expected over the next three days, with Guara and Valencia types likely to trade close to current quotations.
• Indian kernels (domestic market): Ongoing corrective bias as festive demand ebbs, but deeper declines may attract fresh buying interest from value-conscious consumers and regional traders.