Almonds: India’s Structural Supply Gap Meets a Firm Global Market

India’s structurally import-dependent almond market is moving into a phase of firmer prices as strong pre-festive demand meets limited domestic production and disciplined global sellers. India’s nuts and dry fruits sector is rapidly shifting from a festival-driven, premium segment toward all-year, nutrition-led consumption. With major nut consumption near 800,000 tonnes and domestic output around 210,000 tonnes, only about a quarter of demand is covered by local production, forcing heavy reliance on imports. This deficit is particularly important for almonds, where California and Spain remain key suppliers and Indian buyers are currently active ahead of the 2026 Diwali season.

Prices

Current indications for standard US kernel grades (Carmel SSR 18/20 and 20/22) are steady around EUR 6.70/kg FAS Washington, while organic Nonpareil 27/30 from the US is near EUR 9.35/kg FOB. Spanish Marcona and Valencia kernels are mostly in the EUR 6.15–8.90/kg FOB Madrid range, with organic Nonpareil at about EUR 11.50/kg. Over the past three weeks, prices have been broadly stable to slightly firmer, with incremental EUR 0.05–0.10/kg gains noticeable across several Spanish and US lines.

Firmness is underpinned by robust Indian import interest and generally tight kernels, as highlighted in recent trade commentary, while European demand has so far absorbed higher price levels without major pushback. In India’s wholesale markets, imported almond values converted to kernel equivalent also trend steady to firm as importers rebuild stocks ahead of the festive season.

Supply & Demand

India’s nuts and dry fruits market is valued around INR 60,000 crore, with imports worth close to INR 30,000 crore covering a structural volume gap of roughly 590,000 tonnes across major nut categories. Domestic production covers only about 26% of consumption, implying that almonds and other nuts will remain heavily import-reliant in the foreseeable future. This entrenched deficit underpins long-term import demand for US and European almonds, independent of seasonal swings.

On the demand side, the category is no longer purely festive. Smaller packs, organised retail, e-commerce and quick commerce are moving almonds into everyday household baskets, especially among younger, health-conscious consumers outside the traditional metro hubs. As a result, India’s buying pattern is becoming more continuous, with festive peaks layered on top of a growing base-load of nutritional demand. This year, August 2026 shipments from California to India jumped more than 170% year on year, underscoring India’s role as the leading growth engine for global almond exports.

Globally, California’s 2026 almond crop is forecast around 2.65–2.70 billion pounds, only marginally below last year, while Spain expects a production increase versus its five‑year average. Despite this, early-season export sales and strong Indian demand have tightened the near-term kernel balance. With importers in India and other Asia–Pacific markets front‑loading purchases ahead of festivals, exporters have less pressure to discount, which helps explain the resilience of current EUR prices.

Fundamentals & Structural Drivers

The core fundamental driver for the almond market into India is the structural mismatch between domestic output (~210,000 tonnes) and aggregate nut consumption (~800,000 tonnes). In the near term, this guarantees a high, recurring level of import requirements, particularly in in‑shell almonds from California and Australia that are shelled and processed locally. Over the medium term, the same gap creates a strong incentive for India to expand domestic nut cultivation and processing, including in traditional almond-growing regions such as Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh.

However, expanding India’s own almond and nut production base will take time, capital and agronomic support. Until these investments translate into scale, importers and processors remain exposed to global price cycles, freight costs and currency moves. At the same time, the move toward smaller consumer packs, quality standardisation and stronger brands means retail buyers are increasingly sensitive to consistent quality and food safety certifications, not just headline price.

Internationally, water availability in California and drought conditions in parts of Spain remain key medium‑term risk factors. Recent Spanish drought monitoring continues to flag structural water stress in several river basins, which could cap yields and keep high‑quality Mediterranean kernels relatively firm in EUR terms even if global supply is adequate.

Weather & Crop Update

California’s 2026 almond harvest started roughly two weeks earlier than usual, with August receipts more than 50% higher than last year as an early crop flows into the system. Early-season heat in early September, with Sacramento Valley highs above 100°F on several days, has supported drying on the orchard floor and a rapid harvest pace. Overall, there are currently no major weather disruptions reported for the ongoing US harvest.

In Spain, official drought monitoring still shows notable water scarcity in some southern and eastern basins, though conditions into late summer 2026 are somewhat improved versus earlier in the year. For now, the 2026/27 Spanish almond crop is expected to be modestly larger than last year’s, with additional irrigated acreage entering production. That combination – early, smooth US harvest plus growing Spanish output – suggests that global physical availability should be sufficient, but regional quality and size premiums are likely to persist.

Forecast & Trading Outlook

Into the September–November window, the almond market is likely to remain supported by India’s structural import needs, ongoing festive stock building and disciplined selling by major origins. While the overall 2026 California crop is not significantly smaller, strong early shipments and steady European demand limit downside risks for now. A material correction in EUR prices would probably require either a clear demand slowdown in India post-festive season or evidence of heavier‑than‑expected ending stocks in California.

Over the longer term, India’s strategy to expand domestic nut cultivation and processing introduces new variables for trade flows. However, given today’s roughly 590,000‑tonne supply gap across major nuts, any increase in local almond output over the next few years is more likely to slow import growth rather than reduce absolute import volumes. For exporters, India is set to remain a core growth market; for domestic stakeholders, the bigger challenge will be to combine affordability, quality and consumer trust to anchor almonds as an everyday nutrition item.

Focused Trading Recommendations

• Indian importers: Use current sideways‑to‑firm price band to secure core festive coverage rather than waiting for major dips; downside appears limited near term given strong early‑season shipments and healthy consumer demand.
• European buyers: Consider scaling in purchases of standard California and Spanish grades on any minor pullbacks; tight kernels and robust India offtake argue against aggressive waiting strategies.
• Growers and processors in India: Explore forward contracts and quality‑linked premiums with retailers, leveraging the shift toward organised, year‑round consumption and smaller packs.
• Risk management: Monitor INR/EUR and freight developments closely; modest FX weakness or freight tightening could translate into noticeably higher landed EUR costs even if origin prices are flat.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)

• US export offers (California kernels, EUR basis): Sideways to slightly firm as early harvest flows meet strong export demand, led by India.
• Spain (Marcona, Valencia kernels, FOB EUR): Mostly stable with a mild upward bias, supported by quality‑driven demand and regional water concerns.
• India (import‑parity kernels, landed EUR equivalent): Sideways to firm as pre‑Diwali buying continues and importers maintain offer discipline.