The Turkish apricot market enters 2026 weighed down by significant challenges stemming from the previous year’s severe climatic events. According to Fevzi Çiçek, head of the Malatya Chamber of Agricultural Engineers, last season brought frost and drought conditions that he described as more severe than a fruit tree normally faces in decades. These stresses have had a pronounced effect, especially in lowland orchards below 1000-1200 meters altitude, leading to persistent physiological issues and reduced shoot vitality. Notably, orchards at higher elevations met their chilling requirements and are expected to fare better.
This year, stakeholders are bracing for a reduced harvest of dried apricots at around 60-70 thousand tons, a notable drop from the normal 80-100 thousand tons. Çiçek emphasizes that while risks persist, especially in lowland regions, there is currently no threat of early flowering and the season is progressing in line with the decade’s average, barring unforeseen extreme events. The market has recalibrated expectations, and as hope returns with more typical weather patterns, pricing dynamics remain sensitive to any news of crop prospects and ongoing weather developments.
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Apricots dried
no: 2, sulphured (2000 ppm)
FOB 8.00 €/kg
(from TR)
Apricots dried
no. 1, sulphured (2000 ppm)
FOB 8.85 €/kg
(from TR)
Apricots dried
no:8, TR-1123
99,97%
FCA 5.18 €/kg
(from PL)
📈 Prices
| Type | Location | Delivery Terms | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | 1W Change | Update Date | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apricots dried, no:2, sulphured | Ankara (TR) | FOB | 8.00 | 0.00 | 2026-03-04 | Stable |
| Apricots dried, no:1, sulphured | Malatya (TR) | FOB | 8.85 | +0.05 | 2026-03-04 | Firm |
| Apricots dried, no:8, TR-1123 | Lodz (PL) | FCA | 5.18 | +0.03 | 2026-03-02 | Modestly Higher |
High-end Malatya sulphured dried apricots have seen a minor firming in price in early March, signaling resilient demand even as supply prospects remain modest.
🌍 Supply & Demand
- 2026 Harvest Outlook: Expected 60–70 thousand tons of dried apricots, lower than the typical 80–100 thousand tons due to cumulative damage from previous frost and drought. This decrease is most pronounced in lowland orchards, while high-altitude regions performed better due to meeting chilling and dormancy needs.
- Farmer Sentiment: Growers in Malatya, the world’s apricot capital, have accepted lower volumes but remain optimistic provided ‘seasonal conditions remain normal.’ This reflects a wait-and-see approach mid-season.
- Demand Trends: Consistently strong international demand, particularly for Turkish-origin sulphured dried apricots, maintains price floors, especially for higher grades.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- 2025/26 Inventory Overhang: Little to no carry-over expected, as last year’s yield was also reduced by bad weather. This tightens the supply balance and supports pricing.
- Weather Impact: Past shoot burn injuries and physiological stress may carry latent effects into 2026, especially for lowland regions, keeping the supply outlook fragile.
- Regional Differentiation: Altitude is a critical factor—orchards above 1,000–1,200 meters are stable, while lowland zones face lingering risk of further declines.
- Speculative Activity: Some market participants show increased forward interest as analysts monitor ongoing weather patterns; volatility may increase if late frosts or hot spells occur.
🌤️ Weather & Crop Outlook
- Current Progress: No signs of early flowering; development runs in line with average of last 10 years, minimizing immediate weather-exacerbated risk.
- Key Risk: Continued monitoring required for late frost (especially in lowlands) as well as drought spells that could repeat last season’s damages.
🌏 Global Context
- Production Comparison: Turkey remains the dominant global supplier. 2026’s forecasted production shortfall leaves less room for surplus exports, increasing competition for top grades in Europe and beyond.
- Stock Situation: Lower stocks regionally due to back-to-back challenging harvests create supportive conditions for producers, with less downward price pressure from unsold old-crop inventory.
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Expect further firming in premium Turkish dried apricot prices, particularly for sulphured #1 and #2 grades, as tight supply meets robust demand.
- Procurement managers should secure forward coverage, especially for lowland-origin product, given lingering risk of further losses.
- Monitor regional weather closely—any adverse event can further limit supply and trigger price spikes.
- Speculators should watch for volatility triggers, especially seasonal frost and drought updates in Turkish apricot belt.
- Exporters may find enhanced opportunities in markets prioritizing quality, as international buyers compete for limited top grades.
📆 3-Day Price Forecast (FOB Turkey)
| Grade | Current (EUR/kg) | Day 1 | Day 2 | Day 3 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No 2, Sulphured | 8.00 | 8.00 | 8.05 | 8.10 | ↗ |
| No 1, Sulphured | 8.85 | 8.88 | 8.90 | 8.95 | ↗ |
| No 8, TR-1123 | 5.18 | 5.20 | 5.18 | 5.20 | → |
Prices are projected to hold firm or climb modestly on moderate spot tightness and steady forward demand.
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