The international apricot market is experiencing notable turbulence as Turkish exports—commanding the largest global share—have suffered a dramatic decrease. In the first nine months of 2024, Turkish dried apricot exports fell by 24.33% in value compared to the previous year, driven primarily by an unprecedented agricultural frost in Malatya, the world’s principal apricot-producing region. Export volumes dropped from 50,919 tons in 2023 to just 38,267 tons in 2024, with earnings declining from $286.9 million to $217.1 million. According to Malatya Commodity Exchange President Ramazan Özcan, this setback was not only weather-driven but also compounded by a lack of buffer stocks unlike the previous season, when stored inventories supported shipments. Following the frost, monthly exports are lagging, though a gradual recovery is anticipated as exporters aim to close the year near 50,000 tons.
Despite these challenges, prices for dried apricots have shown resilience, reflecting reduced supply rather than demand weakness. Turkish offerings—both organic and conventional—have remained firm with little intra-week variation. Weather risks remain a key focus, and all eyes are on future weather patterns in key growing regions, as well as evolving inventory and export flows. Uncertainty persists on whether full-year export targets will be achieved, making price formation in early 2026 a critical market event.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Apricots dried
no: 5, unsulphured
FOB 9.70 €/kg
(from TR)
Apricots dried
no: 4, unsulphured, organic
FOB 5.84 €/kg
(from TR)
Apricots dried
no: 4, unsulphured
FOB 10.00 €/kg
(from TR)
📈 Prices & Market Sentiment
| Product Type | Location | Delivery | Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price | Update Date | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apricots dried no: 5, unsulphured | Malatya (TR) | FOB | 9.70 | 9.70 | 2025-12-09 | Steady, firm |
| Apricots dried no: 4, unsulphured, organic | Ankara (TR) | FOB | 5.84 | 5.84 | 2025-12-09 | Steady, organic trade slow |
| Apricots dried no: 4, unsulphured | Malatya (TR) | FOB | 10.00 | 10.00 | 2025-12-09 | Stable, limited supply |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Severe Frost: Major agricultural frost hit Malatya on April 12, 2024, significantly reducing harvest volumes.
- Export Decline: Exports dropped 24.33% in value and 24.8% in volume year-on-year for Jan–Sep 2024.
- Stock Effects: Unlike 2023, few buffer stocks existed to cushion 2024’s disrupted supply.
- Market Expectation: Exporters expect to reach about 50,000 tons for the year, well below 2023’s 56,000+ tons.
- Pricing: Prices remain elevated amid tight supplies; no significant intra-week movement.
📊 Fundamentals & Global Comparison
| Country | Est. Production 2024 (tons) | Key Export Destinations | Stocks (est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey | ~75,000 | EU, Russia, USA | Lower than last year |
| Iran | ~25,000 | Iraq, EU | Steady |
| Uzbekistan | ~20,000 | Russia, Central Asia | Average |
- Turkey remains the global price setter; disruption here instantly affects world prices.
- Competing origins (Iran, Uzbekistan) have stable outputs but cannot plug the Turkish deficit.
- Importers are drawing on alternative suppliers and stocks, but availability is thin.
☁️ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact
- Recent frost risks have passed, but continued monitoring is vital as next bloom (March–April 2025) nears.
- Short-term forecasts for Malatya (Dec 2025) suggest typical cold, low precipitation conditions—no imminent field risks, but soil moisture is low.
- Global weather monitors warn of another potential El Niño early in 2026, which may bring additional risk to next harvest cycles.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Suppliers: Hold offers firm; buyers are seeking security of origin and quality as supply remains stretched.
- Buyers: Secure long-term contracts—spot purchases may become costly with further tightening expected in early 2026.
- Traders: Monitor weather trends in Malatya and regional stocks—any adverse news could spark additional price upside.
- End-users: Early procurement advised for large users (confectionery, processors).
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Product | Origin | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Mid-Term Trend (3 days) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apricots dried no: 5, unsulphured | Malatya (TR) | 9.70 | Stable to slightly firm |
| Apricots dried no: 4, unsulphured | Malatya (TR) | 10.00 | Stable |
| Apricots dried no: 4, unsulphured, organic | Ankara (TR) | 5.84 | Stable, low volume |
