This week, the global apricot market has been thrown into the spotlight by a convergence of downward export trends, stagnant or dropping prices, and growing tensions between exporters and farmers. Turkish dried apricots—a sector closely monitored due to Turkey’s dominance in global supply—are at the heart of the current market turbulence. As dried apricot exports decline, prices remain subdued, with exporters citing difficulty in securing high margins and opting to push for lower-cost raw materials. At the same time, Turkish farmers, facing squeezed margins and allegations of increased imports from Iran and Turkmenistan, are left hoping for higher prices or swift government intervention to stabilize the market. Meanwhile, apricot kernels continue to provide an alternative income for producers, but reluctance to sell amid hopes for price recovery is causing additional market friction. Set against winter’s approach, harvest activity is over but orchard maintenance and sapling planting signal preparation for the new season. Weather across Anatolian apricot regions remains a crucial variable as saplings establish; any late frost risk or unusual precipitation could define the 2026 crop prospects. The macro picture is thus a complex navigation of low prices, competitive imports, producer-exporter standoffs, and supply chain recalibration as the market awaits a clear signal on direction.
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Apricots dried
no:8, TR-1123
99,97%
FCA 5.00 €/kg
(from PL)
Apricots dried
Cubes, no - 8
FCA 5.40 €/kg
(from NL)
Apricots dried
Cubes, no - 6
FCA 5.77 €/kg
(from NL)
📈 Prices & Market Sentiment
| Product | Type | Origin | Location | Price (EUR/kg) | Prev. Price | Update | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apricots dried | no:8, TR-1123 | TR | PL, Lodz | 4.60 | 4.40 | 2025-12-01 | ⬆️ Slightly Rising |
| Apricots dried | Cubes, no – 8 | TR | NL, Dordrecht | 5.38 | 5.38 | 2025-11-29 | ➡️ Steady |
| Apricots dried | Cubes, no – 6 | TR | NL, Dordrecht | 5.75 | 5.75 | 2025-11-29 | ➡️ Steady |
| Apricots dried | no: 5, unsulphured | TR | TR, Malatya | 9.70 | 9.70 | 2025-11-25 | ➡️ Steady |
| Apricots dried | no: 3, unsulphured | TR | TR, Malatya | 9.50 | 10.05 | 2025-11-25 | ⬇️ Lower |
Market sentiment: The market is facing downward pressure from subdued exports and soft demand, despite some small local price increases. Buyers are cautious amid rumors of alternative supply from Iran and Turkmenistan; sellers have limited pricing power.
🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics
- Export decline: Turkish dried apricot exports have decreased noticeably week-on-week, placing exporters on the defensive as inventory builds.
- Price resistance: Exporters are unable to push for higher international prices, and are bargaining hard for cheaper raw material procurement at farmgate.
- Farmers’ dilemma: Farmers seek higher farmgate prices, feeling squeezed between rising input costs and low purchase offers; advocacy for intervention is escalating.
- Imports weigh: Alleged imports of dried apricots from Iran and Turkmenistan have increased market competition and contributed to price depression.
- Stock and carryover: Inventories are expected to be higher this season due to slower export pace.
- Apricot seeds: Farmers are holding back seed sales, betting on a price recovery in the coming weeks/months.
📊 Market Fundamentals & International Comparison
| Country | 2025/26 Production (est.) | Stock Position (est.) | Export Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey | Major (700,000+ tons fresh, 100,000+ tons dried) | Building (↑) | ~65% |
| Iran | Significant | Stable | Rising |
| Turkmenistan | Moderate | Stable | Increasing (unofficial channels) |
| EU | Moderate – Decreasing | Low | Minor |
Turkey remains the dominant global supplier but faces rising competition from Iranian and Turkmen products, especially as new trade routes and unofficial imports open up.
🌦️ Weather Outlook for Anatolia & Key Growing Regions
- Current conditions: Most apricot-producing regions in Anatolia are transitioning into winter. Recent weather has been stable, favoring ongoing sapling planting and orchard maintenance.
- Outlook: The short-term 3-day forecast shows mild temperatures and minimal precipitation across Malatya and key valleys. No immediate threats from frost or drought are expected, allowing optimal conditions for root establishment in new plantings.
- Risks: Producers are watching for any late-winter frost spikes or unusual precipitation, which could impact sapling survival and overall orchard productivity in 2026.
📌 Trading Outlook & Strategy
- Exporters: Exercise patience—avoid surplus sales in a soft market. Monitor import trends from competing origins and consider flexible pricing or forward contracts to manage risk.
- Farmers: Hold stock if possible. Seek collective bargaining and monitor government responses to growing calls for intervention.
- Buyers: Consider covering immediate needs now, as market volatility may increase; watch for season-end stock clearance offers.
- Industry: Diversify sourcing channels and keep tight watch on Iranian/Turkmen origin offers to ensure supply-chain continuity and price competitiveness.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Hubs)
| Product | Exchange/Hub | Current Price (EUR/kg) | 3-Day Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apricots dried (no:8, TR-1123) | Lodz, PL | 4.60 | 4.55 – 4.70 |
| Apricots dried (Cubes, no-8) | Dordrecht, NL | 5.38 | 5.30 – 5.40 |
| Apricots dried (no:5, unsulphured) | Malatya, TR | 9.70 | 9.50 – 9.75 |
Price action is expected to remain soft near-term, with occasional spot demand spikes possible if exporters move to clear excess inventory. Weather risks remain low for now, supporting farmer optimism for orchard renewal.
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