Turkish Dried Apricots: Origin Prices Steady, EU Cubes Slightly Softer

Turkish dried apricot prices at origin are broadly steady in mid-May, with sulphured grades edging marginally lower and unsulphured and organic offers unchanged. Mild, seasonally normal weather in Malatya and Ankara limits fresh supply shocks, while export demand remains firm but selective. Short-term price indications are neutral at origin and slightly soft in European FCA positions. The market is consolidating at elevated levels reached after previous frost-related supply tightness, but without new weather damage this month, sellers show little urgency to move prices up. Export statistics confirm solid flows from Malatya, underlining that current levels are being accepted by core buyers, even as some European warehouse positions (especially cubes) trade a little easier. Over the next three days, the forecast in key Turkish growing areas is for relatively cool, stable conditions with scattered showers and no frost risk, supporting a sideways price bias.

Prices & Market Tone

FOB Malatya and Ankara offers for Turkish dried apricots are flat compared with the previous week, with only slight trimming visible on mid-range sulphured grades. The most recent market commentary also notes that Turkish-origin dried apricot prices are "holding steady in early May," with only marginal softening in European FCA cubes.

Sample international trade data show Turkish dried apricot export deals in April 2026 around 8.9 USD/kg, reflecting the still-elevated level of origin prices. This aligns with the flat quotes seen from Malatya exporters and confirms that, despite minor easing in EU cubes, the core FOB market remains firm but not aggressively rising.

Supply, Weather & Export Flows

Turkey remains the reference origin for dried apricots, accounting for the bulk of global supply, with production and drying heavily concentrated in Malatya and surrounding regions. After frost damage in 2025, the 2026 crop has been described as recovering, and export volumes from August 2025 to late Q1 2026 already exceeded 20,000 tonnes.

Latest export statistics from Malatya’s trade authorities indicate that in March 2026 alone more than 2,400 tonnes of dried apricots were shipped, generating over USD 20 million, with first-quarter exports near 7,000 tonnes and USD 66 million. This shows demand is sufficiently strong to absorb current prices, even though spot buying is described as selective rather than aggressive. Competing origins like Iran and Uzbekistan continue to serve price-sensitive and regional markets but have not displaced Turkey from premium segments.

Weather Snapshot: Malatya & Ankara (Next 3 Days)

For Malatya, the forecast from 14–16 May 2026 calls for hazy sun and a chance of localized thunderstorms on Thursday, followed by a cooler, mostly cloudy day with showers and storms on Friday, and then returning to hazy sun on Saturday, with highs around 18–23°C and lows 8–12°C. Ankara shows a similar pattern: showers and thunderstorms today, a cooler but drying Friday, and sunny, pleasant weather on Saturday, with highs in the high teens to low 20s°C.

The earlier hail event on 26 April 2026 did cause local damage to apricots, almonds and cereals in parts of Malatya, but current forecasts imply no fresh severe weather or frost risk. Market commentary confirms that near-term weather in Malatya is now seasonally mild, supporting good orchard conditions and a neutral short-term price outlook.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

Recent analytical work on Turkish apricot markets highlights that agricultural input costs, domestic inflation and export volume are key drivers of dried apricot prices. With Turkish inflation still structurally elevated and energy and labor costs firm, local producers show limited appetite for price reductions, helping explain the stickiness of origin offers.

Global intelligence platforms underline that climate-related yield volatility in Malatya, particularly from late-spring frosts, remains a persistent supply-side risk that can quickly tighten availability and push prices higher. However, with the current season progressing under relatively benign conditions and exports continuing smoothly, the immediate balance between supply and demand appears reasonably aligned, favoring sideways price action rather than sharp moves.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Pointers

Given seasonally mild weather, stable export flows and only minor softness in EU warehouse cubes, the short-term (1–3 week) outlook for Turkish dried apricot prices is broadly neutral. Origin prices are likely to remain within a narrow range around current levels, with intra-grade adjustments driven more by product quality, certification and lot size than by macro shocks.

Trading Outlook (Next 2–4 Weeks)

• Importers / Industrial users (EU, UK): Use the current stability in Turkish FOB offers to secure partial cover for Q3–Q4 needs, focusing on core grades (No. 2–4 sulphured and unsulphured). Consider negotiating on EU FCA cubes, where reports point to slightly softer indications.
• Buyers of organic and premium unsulphured: Expect continued tightness and limited discounts at origin, given higher production costs and strong branding value. Stagger purchases rather than waiting for a significant correction that current fundamentals do not justify.
• Turkish exporters / packers: With weather risk currently low and exports flowing steadily, maintain offer discipline, especially on high-demand sizes. Be flexible on payment terms or logistics rather than headline price where buyers seek concessions.

3-Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)

• Malatya FOB (sulphured & unsulphured, all sizes): Stable over the next 3 days; no strong catalysts for upward or downward moves under the current weather and demand backdrop.
• Ankara FOB (select grades): Also stable; closely tracks Malatya given shared national fundamentals and similar weather profile.
• EU Warehouses (NL, PL FCA cubes & bulk): Slightly soft bias, with modest discounting possible on cubes as liquidity remains thin and nearby demand is selective.