Turkish Dried Apricot Prices Ease Slightly but Stay High on Tight Stocks

Turkish dried apricot prices are edging fractionally lower in Europe but remain historically high, with FOB origin levels largely steady amid tight stocks and only cautious optimism for the 2026 crop. Spot activity is focused on nearby cover in Europe, where buyers resist further price upside and negotiate small discounts on diced and cubes, while exporters in Malatya hold offers firm, citing limited carry‑in following last year’s frost damage and only localized hail losses so far this spring.

Prices

Latest FCA warehouse prices in Northwest Europe for Turkish dried apricot cubes have slipped by roughly 0.5–1% since early May, with most industrial grades now in the €3.25–6.45/kg band depending on cut and calibre. FOB Malatya quotations for whole unsulphured and sulphured fruit remain broadly unchanged in recent weeks and are still described as “high and firm” by trade sources, reflecting structurally tight Turkish supply after the 2025 crop failure.

Supply & Demand

Turkey remains the dominant global supplier, with Malatya accounting for the bulk of world dried apricot output and exports. The 2025 season saw an almost complete crop failure after severe late frosts, which also killed a significant share of trees; this sharply reduced export volumes and depleted stocks.

For 2026, orchards entered the season in better physiological condition and spring bloom was profuse, raising hopes for recovery. However, localized hailstorms in late April damaged apricot and other fruit trees in parts of Malatya province, prompting official loss assessments. Current trade commentary still highlights tight origin availability and high prices, even as EU demand appears more price‑sensitive with buyers limiting forward coverage and negotiating harder on spot.

Fundamentals & Weather

Recent analytical work on Turkish dried apricots confirms that domestic input costs, inflation and export volumes are key price drivers, helping explain why values remain elevated despite some demand resistance. Structurally, the loss of trees in 2025 implies a multi‑year rebuild of production capacity, supporting a higher floor for prices for several seasons, especially in higher grades.

In the short term, weather in Malatya over the next three days (16–18 May) is forecast to be seasonally mild and dry, with partly sunny conditions and daytime highs around 19–22°C and cool nights. This pattern is favourable for fruit set and early fruit development and does not pose immediate new weather risk for the 2026 crop, after the earlier episodes of blossom loss and local hail.

Trading Outlook

• Buyers in Europe: Near‑term FCA values for cubes and industrial grades are slightly softer and could offer a limited window to top up Q3 coverage, but the overall market remains tight; stagger purchases rather than waiting for a large correction.
• Importers with low stocks: Given structurally reduced tree numbers and uncertain hail impact, maintain at least baseline cover into the new‑crop period; avoid becoming too short on premium unsulphured and organic grades.
• Exporters in Türkiye: With FOB prices holding firm and modest EU resistance emerging, focus on maintaining quality and shipment reliability rather than chasing further price hikes in the short term.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Direction)

• Türkiye FOB Malatya (whole, conventional): Prices expected sideways over the next three days, with tight stocks offset by steady but cautious demand.
• EU (NL warehouses, FCA, cubes & industrial): Slightly soft to sideways bias as buyers negotiate small discounts but no sign of sharp correction.
• Premium organic Malatya product: Firm and stable amid thin liquidity; any additional weather scare could quickly translate into higher offers.