Turkish dried apricots: firm FOBs, stable cubes as Malatya crop improves

Turkish dried apricot prices are holding firm on the FOB side while European cube offers in the Netherlands are broadly stable, with only marginal softening over the past weeks. Tight old-crop stocks keep a floor under the market, but expectations of a much better 2026 Malatya crop and benign near-term weather cap further upside. European buyers see a sideways market for now: Turkish dried apricot offers into NL and PL are little changed, and domestic Malatya fresh apricot wholesale prices have been flat in the first week of June in TRY terms. Processors, however, remain cautious after last season’s extreme frost-driven supply shock, and are watching orchard conditions and exchange-rate moves closely before committing to large-volume contracts.

Prices & Spreads

Current indicative prices (converted to EUR, rounded):

Domestic fresh apricot wholesale prices in Malatya are quoted around TRY 70–71/kg this week, indicating steady early-season sentiment in local markets.

Supply, Weather & Crop Outlook (TR)

Malatya, which accounts for the bulk of Turkey’s dried apricot output, continues to recover from the exceptional frost damage of 2025 that severely constrained last season’s exportable supply. Local agronomic commentary earlier this year pointed to significantly better bloom and fruit set, with expectations of high yields in 2026 if weather cooperates.

In late April 2026, provincial authorities reported hail damage in parts of Malatya and started preliminary loss assessments, but these were localized rather than region-wide. Since then, no large-scale disaster reports have emerged, and orchards in the core producing districts are generally viewed as on track for a normal-to-good crop.

3‑day weather – Malatya orchards

• 6 June: Mostly cloudy, isolated thunderstorms, highs around 26°C.
• 7–8 June: Predominantly sunny and dry, highs 29–30°C, lows around 15°C.

This pattern is favourable for fruit development and drying preparations, with no immediate frost or excessive rainfall risk. Should this continue into July–August, market attention will gradually shift from weather risk to logistics, FX and demand-side factors.

Demand, Trade Flows & Market Tone

Turkey remains the key global supplier of dried apricots, with Malatya-origin product dominating premium segments into Europe. Recent European import demand appears steady rather than booming: food manufacturers and packers continue to cover nearby needs but are reluctant to rebuild large stocks while prices remain historically elevated after last year’s shortage.

Alternative origins such as Iran and Uzbekistan compete mainly in more price-sensitive channels, but they cannot fully replace Turkish volumes or quality specifications in core EU retail and ingredient markets. As a result, even modest tightening in Turkish availability or logistics quickly translates into firmness in CIF Europe values, limiting downside from current levels.

Trading Outlook

• Short term (next 1–3 weeks): Expect a broadly sideways price pattern. FOB Malatya offers for both sulphured and unsulphured grades are likely to trade in a narrow range around current levels, with only minor size-related adjustments, as buyers and sellers wait for firmer crop estimates.
• Buyers: Food industry users with Q3 coverage gaps may consider layering in partial volumes on any small dips, especially for mid-sizes (no. 3–5), to reduce exposure to potential harvest-time logistical bottlenecks.
• Sellers: Exporters with limited old-crop stocks are incentivised to hold offer ideas firm. Forward-sales beyond immediate shipment should factor in the risk of local hail events and FX volatility, but current weather argues against aggressive price hikes.
• Speculative/merchandising positions: Risk/reward for fresh longs is modest at today’s firm levels; more attractive entries may emerge if a good crop is confirmed and EU demand stays cautious into late summer.

3‑day Regional Price Indication (directional)

• TR Malatya FOB, sulphured & unsulphured grades: Prices expected to remain stable over the next three days, with a neutral bias as weather is supportive and no major new crop news is anticipated.
• NL (Dordrecht) FCA cubes, TR origin: Local offers likely to stay flat in EUR; any changes should be marginal and mainly linked to freight and handling costs rather than raw material shifts.
• PL (Łódź) FCA bulk whole apricots: Indications seen steady, tracking Turkish FOBs and broader European demand without clear near-term directional drivers.