Cashew Market: Cautious Demand, Weak RCN, but W240 Holds Firm
Cashew market in June 2026: buyers remain cautious, RCN weakens, W240 stays tight, W320 under pressure, and logistics risks via Strait of Hormuz keep freight costs elevated.
Prices & Spreads
Kernel prices remain broadly under pressure, but W240 is holding a clear premium. Recent Vietnamese FOB indications show W240 at about USD 3.35–3.55/lb, versus W320 at USD 3.02–3.35/lb, with expert benchmarks even higher at roughly USD 3.65/lb for WW240 and USD 3.30/lb for WW320. With RCN still elevated in many trades, the kernel–RCN margin is thin to negative for average outturns, discouraging aggressive processing.
Current physical offers in Europe and India confirm this structure in euro terms. Indicative non‑organic W240 from India is around EUR 7.3–7.4/kg FCA/FOB, while W320 trades slightly lower near EUR 6.8–6.9/kg. Vietnam WW240 is near EUR 7.7/kg FOB and WW320 around EUR 6.8/kg, with broken and piece grades discounted more steeply. Price moves over the past three weeks have been modestly firmer for top whole grades and largely flat to slightly softer for lower grades, mirroring the quality and demand split.
Supply & Demand Balance
Global kernel demand remains cautious. Buyers in major consuming regions are largely covering nearby needs only, avoiding longer-term commitments amid economic uncertainty and geopolitical risk. Demand from key Gulf markets such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Iraq has notably softened, undermined both by weaker local consumption and the continuing disruption of shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, where vessel traffic and insurance conditions remain far from normal.
On the supply side, structural tension comes from the mismatch between elevated RCN prices and current kernel values. Processors in Vietnam and India are reluctant to build RCN inventory at loss-making crush margins. Many Vietnamese plants are cherry‑picking higher outturn cargos (51–53 lbs KOR) and letting lower‑grade parcels sit, while Indian buyers focus on strategic imports despite already strong January–April volumes, up more than 40% year-on-year to roughly 315,000 MT. This selective buying contrasts with easing RCN prices as the West African campaign winds down.
Origin Fundamentals
Vietnam: Margin Squeeze, Grade Selectivity
In Vietnam, RCN prices have softened from previous highs but remain expensive relative to kernels, keeping processors under pressure. Reported trades include Guinea‑Bissau RCN at about USD 1,660/MT CNF and Benin at USD 1,565/MT, while offers span roughly USD 1,330/MT for 43 lbs KOR Burkina Faso material to USD 1,560/MT for 49 lbs KOR Boke origin. With such levels, only high‑outturn lots are attractive, reinforcing the focus on premium kernels like W240 and top‑quality W320.
Kernel business this week reflects firm W240 and still‑moving W320, but at restrained volumes. Deals into the US have been reported at around USD 3.02/lb for W320 and USD 3.35–3.40/lb for W240, while EU sales show similar differentials with WS and LP discounted further. The combination of cautious offshore demand and tight raw material economics explains why processors are reluctant to over‑commit on forward sales.
West Africa: Season Winding Down, Quality Deteriorating
Across West Africa, cashew marketing is clearly in its late phase. Ghana, Nigeria, Côte d’Ivoire and Burkina Faso all report slowing activity as the main crop draws to a close and the rainy season advances. Remaining stocks at farm and village level are increasingly composed of late‑season nuts with lower KOR, often below 40 lbs in Ghana, significantly below exporter and processor thresholds.
Prices have eased in line with this quality trend. In Ghana, farm‑gate levels are down to about GHS 7–8/kg, while Nigerian delivered‑to‑store prices hover near NGN 1,700/kg with farm‑gate around NGN 1,400/kg. Côte d’Ivoire farm‑gate prices are roughly 200–375 CFA/kg and about 450–455 CFA/kg at port, while Burkina Faso sees 500–525 CFA/kg in its most active markets. Regionally, lower‑quality 43–46 lbs KOR RCN now trades around USD 1,350–1,450/MT, and even 51–53 lbs KOR has slipped from earlier peaks as urgency to cover declines.
India: Strong RCN Imports, Softer Gulf Kernel Exports
India’s role remains pivotal. January–April 2026 RCN imports surged 41.4% year-on-year to about 315,000 MT at an average USD 1,641/MT, led by Tanzania, Mozambique and West African suppliers. April alone saw nearly 59,000 MT of arrivals, with Nigeria and Ghana dominant. Additional new‑crop material from Nigeria, Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana is expected to reach Indian ports in June, adding to near‑term supply and likely reinforcing the gently softer RCN price trend.
Kernel exports, however, show a mixed picture. Total January–April shipments of roughly 9,650 MT value around USD 7,900/MT on average, but volumes to Gulf markets such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar have declined versus 2025, reflecting weaker demand and trade friction from regional tensions. Oman is an exception, with volumes more than doubling and supported by the new India–Oman CEPA, which grants broader duty‑free access and should structurally support Indian kernel exports into that market.
Other Demand Hubs: Turkey, Japan and the EU
Outside the Gulf, importing countries continue to build cashew as a staple snack and ingredient, even amid near‑term caution. Turkey’s Q1 2026 kernel imports reached about 10,675 MT, more than doubling over two years, at an average value around USD 7,215/MT. Japan imported around 4,260 MT over January–April, with Vietnam the main supplier but Indian product commanding a meaningful premium of roughly USD 8,300–8,500/MT versus Vietnamese kernels near USD 7,400–7,650/MT.
EU buyers collectively absorbed around 2,650 MT of Indian kernels in the first four months, roughly 27–28% of India’s total exports, with the Netherlands and Spain the key entry points and re‑export hubs. Even here, however, purchase behavior remains short‑term focused, with limited interest in long‑dated cover given macro‑ and freight‑related uncertainty.
Weather & Logistics Outlook
Weather is now a key driver of late‑season quality rather than volumes. Seasonal rains across West Africa are already impacting RCN quality, as visible in Ghana’s sub‑40 lbs outturns and general deterioration in Côte d’Ivoire and Benin. This will likely cap any near‑term recovery in raw nut values for remaining stocks, as buyers increasingly discount or avoid weather‑affected lots.
By contrast, logistics is the dominant exogenous risk. The Strait of Hormuz crisis remains unresolved, with shipping flows still drastically below normal and war‑risk insurance costs extremely elevated. Recent reports show only a fraction of pre‑war vessel numbers transiting and tens of thousands of seafarers stranded in the wider Gulf region. This backdrop raises freight costs and extends transit times for cashew shipments tied to Gulf hubs or routes, reinforcing the case for buffer stocks at destination and careful contract structuring.
Market & Trading Outlook
The short‑term outlook is mixed. RCN prices are expected to soften further as the West African season completes and remaining quality‑challenged stocks are liquidated. However, this will not automatically translate into sharply lower kernel prices as long as processors remain disciplined on intake and maintain selective buying of high‑outturn lots. W240 is set to remain structurally tight due to limited stocks and concerns about lower yields in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, supporting a persistent premium over W320.
Demand‑side risks are skewed to the downside, especially from Gulf markets where economic headwinds and trade disruptions intersect. At the same time, expanding demand in Turkey, Japan and parts of the EU, alongside policy support such as India–Oman CEPA and new processing initiatives in Ghana, should underpin medium‑term structural growth. Currency dynamics, notably the recent recovery of the Indian rupee after an all‑time low, will also influence local pricing and export competitiveness in the coming weeks.
Trading Recommendations
- Industrial buyers / roasters: Maintain 3–4 months of forward W320 and W240 coverage as suggested by market experts, prioritising W240 where specifications require it, given very low stocks and persistent tightness.
- Retail brand owners: Use current weakness in broken and small‑piece grades (LWP, SWP, LP, SP) to secure cost-effective raw material for value and ingredient lines, but stagger purchases to benefit from any further RCN‑driven softening.
- Importers in Gulf-linked markets: Build some freight and insurance buffer into landed cost assumptions and consider diversifying discharge ports and routings to mitigate Hormuz-related disruptions.
- West African origin traders: Prioritise rapid movement and clear differentiation of remaining high‑quality stocks before further weather‑induced deterioration, even at slightly lower absolute price levels.
3‑Day Price Direction Snapshot (EUR)
- India, New Delhi (FCA kernels): W240 around EUR 6.9–7.0/kg, W320 near EUR 6.8–6.9/kg; bias: sideways to mildly firm on W240, sideways on W320.
- Vietnam, Hanoi (FOB kernels): WW240 about EUR 7.7/kg, WW320 around EUR 6.8/kg; bias: stable, with upside limited by weak demand.
- EU hub, Netherlands (FCA kernels): WW320 roughly EUR 4.8–5.0/kg; bias: slightly soft amid cautious off‑take and adequate nearby supply.